WINNIPEG — CWB pool return outlooks for canola and durum were upped for 2015-16, while wheat remained unchanged, according to the company’s latest projections.
CWB raised PROs for canola by $10 per tonne due to a rising futures market. Less than ideal weather conditions, due to dryness in some regions, are slowing early development of the Canadian crop. There’s also been some reseeding of the crop due to recent frost events, which may lead some producers to seed other crops in place of damaged canola, according to the report. While it is too early to determine the overall impacts of the harsh spring weather, the risk is clearly leaning toward lower production at this juncture. Supplies of canola in Canada are also on the tighter side, which is supportive for prices.
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The outlook for the durum market improved, causing PROs to be pushed $5 per tonne higher. Concerns about dryness and hot conditions in the Mediterranean, as well as a lack of moisture in Western Canada, are supportive. Improving export prices for Canadian durum and the softer Canadian dollar were also underpinning the market.
Projected returns for wheat were unchanged compared to the April report. Though U.S wheat futures markets saw a big jump, they’ve already given back more than half the advances. Good planting progress has been seen in Western Canada, though there are concerns about the dry soil having a negative impact on wheat. World weather is variable, but the global supply situation remains very large and U.S. wheat is still overpriced compared to other countries.
The price return outlook for field peas was also unchanged, as prices have been stable over the past month. Production prospects are variable, though overall expectations remain in line with month-ago projections.
Malting barley pool return outlooks were moved lower, as conditions are generally favourable for crops in Canada and Europe.
CWB PROs include the general assumptions of a Canadian dollar at 80 cents versus the U.S. dollar and a current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
The following are CWB’s Pool Return outlooks detailing estimated payments to farmers for grain delivered during the 2015-16 crop year, in Canadian dollars per tonne, basis in store St. Lawrence/Vancouver.
Early Delivery Pool Annual Pool
Wheat 28-May 23-Apr 28-May 23-Apr
1 CWRS 14.5 266.00 266.00 266.00 266.00
1 CWRS 14.0 263.00 263.00 263.00 263.00
1 CWRS 13.5 260.00 260.00 260.00 260.00
1 CWRS 13.0 257.00 257.00 257.00 257.00
1 CWRS 12.5 251.00 251.00 251.00 251.00
1 CWRS 12.0 246.00 246.00 246.00 246.00
1 CWRS 11.5 241.00 241.00 241.00 241.00
2 CWRS 14.5 263.00 263.00 263.00 263.00
2 CWRS 14.0 260.00 260.00 260.00 260.00
2 CWRS 13.5 257.00 257.00 257.00 257.00
2 CWRS 13.0 254.00 254.00 254.00 254.00
2 CWRS 12.5 248.00 248.00 248.00 248.00
2 CWRS 12.0 243.00 243.00 243.00 243.00
2 CWRS 11.5 238.00 238.00 238.00 238.00
3 CWRS 13.0 238.00 238.00 238.00 238.00
3 CWRS 12.5 232.00 232.00 232.00 232.00
3 CWRS 12.0 227.00 227.00 227.00 227.00
3 CWRS 11.5 222.00 222.00 222.00 222.00
Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 335.00 330.00 335.00 330.00
1 CWAD 12.5 332.00 327.00 332.00 327.00
1 CWAD 11.5 327.00 322.00 327.00 322.00
1 CWAD 323.00 318.00 323.00 318.00
2 CWAD 13.0 325.00 320.00 322.00 320.00
2 CWAD 11.5 317.00 312.00 317.00 312.00
2 CWAD 313.00 308.00 313.00 308.00
3 CWAD 13.0 308.00 303.00 308.00 303.00
3 CWAD 11.5 305.00 300.00 305.00 300.00
3 CWAD 302.00 297.00 302.00 297.00
Malting Barley
Select CW 290.00 302.00 290.00 302.00
Two-Row
Canola
1 Canada 478.00 468.00 477.00 470.00
Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00
Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool
Wheat 28-May 23-Apr
Minneapolis December 2015 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 5.00 5.00
1 CWRS 14.0 2.00 2.00
1 CWRS 13.5 -1.00 -1.00
1 CWRS 13.0 -4.00 -4.00
1 CWRS 12.5 -9.00 -9.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -14.00 -14.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -19.00 -19.00
2 CWRS 14.5 2.00 2.00
2 CWRS 14.0 -1.00 -1.00
2 CWRS 13.5 -4.00 -4.00
2 CWRS 13.0 -7.00 -7.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -12.00 -12.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -17.00 -17.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -22.00 -22.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -23.00 -23.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -28.00 -28.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -33.00 -33.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -38.00 -38.00
ICE November 2015 Basis
Canola
1 Canola 22.00 18.00
