Ideal seeding weather dominates grain markets

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Published: May 7, 2015

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Canola edged higher on Thursday mostly on a weaker loonie but U.S. crop futures were all lower on generally favourable growing conditions in the Midwest.

Currency fluctuations figured in today’s crop price movement, with the loonie falling almost nine tenths of a cent US as oil prices slipped and U.S. weekly jobless claims stayed near a 15-year low, giving the U.S. Federal Reserve support to raise interest rates later this year.

Trade in canola was light with farmers mostly occupied with seeding. Weather conditions are generally favourable in Western Canada for rapid progress sowing this year’s crop.

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CBOT Weekly: Grain prices showing weakness

Grain prices at the Chicago Board of Trade were on the weaker side for the week ended July 16 due to last week’s USDA report and ongoing trade tensions.

The outlook is for sunny, dry weather for the next seven days.

Traders took profits in palm oil after a run up Wednesday sparked by new policy in Indonesia which is expected to increase the amount of palm used in biodiesel production.

In corn, news of stronger than expected U.S. weekly export sales was not enough to lift prices. Nearby corn fell 5.25 cents a bushel on the stronger U.S. buck and on a forecast for warm weather with showers in the Midwest, raising ideas of excellent germination conditions for the rapidly progressing seeding season.

Reuters reported China is expected to produce a record 232 million tonnes of corn in 2015-16, up 7.6 percent on the year, as farmers expand acreage due to Beijing’s high government buying price policy, according to a forecast by an official think-tank issued on Thursday.

Soybeans fell on the strong U.S. buck, the favourable crop weather and the falling crude oil and vegetable oil prices.

Wheat futures gave back much of the gains made on Wednesday as traders took profits on the run up. Weak export demand also weighed on wheat.

Crop scouts on the final day of an annual tour of Kansas projected the wheat yield in the top-growing U.S. state at 35.9 bushels per acre, below the five-year crop tour average of 40.3 bu., but above last year’s harvest of 28.0 bu.

Wheat production in Kansas was estimated at 288.5 million bu., the scouts said. That is below the five-year crop tour average of 313.6 million bu., but above last year’s final tally of 246.4 million bu.

Russia is considering options for a wheat export duty to replace the existing duty. The new duty would likely be more flexible and kick in only if domestic prices get too high.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.99 to US$58.94 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US82.38 cents, down from 83.27 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2139.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite closed at 15,088.82, up 64.93 points or 0.43 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 82.12 points, or 0.46 percent, to 17,924.1, the S&P 500 gained 7.85 points, or 0.38 percent, to 2,088 and the Nasdaq Composite added 25.90 points, or 0.53 percent, to 4,945.54.

Reuters reports sources who say Syngenta and Monsanto have hired investment banks to advise them on a protential merger of the two companies.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2015         465.80         +1.30         +0.28%

Canola Jul 2015         456.70         +1.30         +0.29%

Canola Nov 2015         447.90         +1.00         +0.22%

Canola Jan 2016         448.60         +1.00         +0.22%

Canola Mar 2016         448.50         +1.00         +0.22%

 

Milling Wheat May 2015         196.00         -2.00         -1.01%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015         199.00         -2.00         -1.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015         205.00         -2.00         -0.97%

 

Durum Wheat May 2015         313.00         unch         0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015         303.00         unch         0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015         308.00         unch         0.00%

 

Barley May 2015         200.00         unch         0.00%

Barley Jul 2015         202.00         unch         0.00%

Barley Oct 2015         187.00         unch         0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2015         981.5         -9         -0.91%

Soybeans Jul 2015         975         -7.5         -0.76%

Soybeans Aug 2015         968.5         -7.25         -0.74%

Soybeans Sep 2015         956.75         -5.5         -0.57%

Soybeans Nov 2015         951         -5         -0.52%

Soybeans Jan 2016         957.25         -5         -0.52%

 

Soybean Meal May 2015         317.4         -0.2         -0.06%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015         314.4         +0.2         +0.06%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015         311.9         unch         0.00%

 

Soybean Oil May 2015         32.31         -0.44         -1.34%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015         32.49         -0.43         -1.31%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015         32.51         -0.45         -1.37%

 

Corn May 2015         357.75         -8.75         -2.39%

Corn Jul 2015         361.5         -5.25         -1.43%

Corn Sep 2015         367.25         -5.5         -1.48%

Corn Dec 2015         377         -5.5         -1.44%

Corn Mar 2016         388.75         -5.25         -1.33%

 

Oats May 2015         229.5         -8         -3.37%

Oats Jul 2015         232.5         -8.75         -3.63%

Oats Sep 2015         239         -9         -3.63%

Oats Dec 2015         247         -7.5         -2.95%

Oats Mar 2016         255         -8.25         -3.13%

 

Wheat May 2015         465.75         -10         -2.10%

Wheat Jul 2015         472.75         -6.5         -1.36%

Wheat Sep 2015         480.75         -6.5         -1.33%

Wheat Dec 2015         497.75         -6.25         -1.24%

Wheat Mar 2016         514.5         -5.75         -1.11%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2015         518         -9         -1.71%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015         530.75         -8         -1.48%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015         542.5         -7.25         -1.32%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015         556.75         -6.25         -1.11%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016         571.25         -6.5         -1.13%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2015         498.75         -2.5         -0.50%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015         499.75         -3.75         -0.74%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015         509         -3.75         -0.73%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015         526.5         -5.25         -0.99%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016         540         -5         -0.92%

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