By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
April 23, 2015
Winnipeg – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were relatively unchanged at the final bell on Thursday, as some selling came forward at the close and the futures gave back the gains they had posted for most of the day.
Canadian farmers intend to plant 19.4 million acres of canola this year, according to the Statistics Canada acreage report released this morning. That would be in line with trade estimates, but nearly a million acres below the 20.3 million seeded last year. Given average yields, canola supplies could be tight by the end of the marketing year, and some analysts were of the opinion that prices will need to rise to draw in a few more acres.
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Canola also found some spillover support from the advances posted in CBOT soybeans and soyoil.
However, the Canadian dollar was sharply stronger relative to its US counterpart, which cuts into crush margins and makes exports less attractive.
About 18,267 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 26,004 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 13,140 of the contracts traded.
Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were up by seven to eight cents per bushel on Thursday.
Old crop weekly export sales, of just over 100,000 tonnes, were also seen as supportive. The US is now only 78,000 tonnes away from meeting the total export projections for the year, 19 weeks still to go.
Ongoing concerns over a Midwestern bird flu outbreak did remain a bearish factor in the background of the soybean market, limiting the advances.
SOYOIL settled higher on Thursday.
SOYMEAL futures were higher on Thursday, but lagged soyoil to the upside with some adjustments to the soyoil/soymeal spread taking place.
CORN futures in Chicago were down by one to three cents per bushel on Thursday, as the market backed away from earlier advances by the close.
Weekly US corn export sales topped trade guesses, at just under 900,000 tonnes, as the recent weakness in the market brought in some bargain hunting.
Concerns over declining demand from the poultry sector, due to the bird flu outbreak, were also weighing on corn.
WHEAT futures in Chicago were down by a penny to up four cents per bushel on Thursday, with most months posting gains as weekly export demand beat expectations. Minneapolis spring wheat futures were steady to slightly lower, while hard red Kansas City winter wheat was up by as much as five cents.
Net US weekly wheat export sales of over 500,000 tonnes were the best in six weeks, and helped pull prices higher.
Some speculative short covering was also triggered on the way up, which contributed to the gains.
Canadian wheat plantings were forecast at 24.7 million acres by Statistics Canada, which would be up from the 23.8 million seeded last year. Larger durum acres accounted for most of the increase.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
