By Julie Ingwersen
WASHINGTON, Feb 19 (Reuters) – U.S. farmers will plant fewer acres of soybeans, corn, wheat and cotton in the 2015-16 marketing year due to falling prices, but will boost seedings of minor crops like sorghum and barley, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday.
At its annual Agricultural Outlook conference, the USDA forecast lower prices for most major U.S. crops following bumper harvests in 2014-15.
“Consecutive record crops have trimmed prices for many crops,” said USDA acting Chief Economist Robert Johansson. “Further price reductions are expected for the 2015-16 crop year, falling near Farm Bill reference prices for many crops.”
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In 2015, total acreage for the eight major crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, barley, and oats, was estimated at 254.6 million acres, down 3.3 million from last spring. Falling crop prices and narrowing profit margins will mean fewer seedings overall, USDA said.
USDA projected 2015-16 U.S. corn plantings at 89.0 million acres, down from 90.6 million in 2014-15. The government projected soybean plantings at 83.5 million acres, down slightly from 83.7 million in 2014-15.
Private analysts were surprised by USDA’s acreage estimates, especially for soybeans. They expect farmers to plant more soybeans this spring, up between 3 million and 7 million, not less, citing lower planting costs for soy compared to corn.
“The soybean acreage estimate contrasts sharply with farmer discussions we’ve had,” said analyst Rich Nelson with farm advisory Allendale Inc. “Cheapest to plant is the issue.”
The USDA forecast 2015-16 all-wheat plantings at 55.5 million acres, down from 56.8 million in 2014-15. Seedings of winter wheat are down 1.9 million acres from a year ago, but Johansson said plantings of spring wheat should rise.
Johansson said drought persisting in the southern Plains wheat belt since 2011 has eased somewhat, improving prospects for the grain and pasture.
Seedings of cotton are expected to fall to 9.7 million acres from 11 million a year ago.
In an exception to the trend, the USDA forecast that seedings of minor feed grains would grow 9.1 percent to 14 million acres, driven by export demand for sorghum from China.
USDA will issue its first planting estimates for spring crops based on farmer surveys on March 31.
USDA projected U.S. agricultural exports at $141.5 billion for the year ending Sept. 30, down from fiscal 2014 but still the second-highest on record.
Agricultural exports to China are expected to fall by $2 billion from 2014, but the nation should remain U.S. farmers’ biggest customer in 2015, for a fifth straight year.
