North American grain/oilseeds review: canola down, taking some direction from soy complex

By Terryn Shiells and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

WINNIPEG, Nov. 28 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts ended weaker on Friday, taking some direction from the sharp declines seen in the Chicago soy complex.

Soyoil was down hard, as crude oil continued to tumble after OPEC decided not to cut production on Thursday, analysts said.

Weakness in Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed added to the bearish tone, as did the large US bean crop and good growing conditions for oilseeds in South America.

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However, canola prices didn’t fall as far as the Chicago soy complex, as it already moved independently lower on Thursday when the US markets were closed for Thanksgiving.

The weakening Canadian dollar, steady crusher demand and talk that canola is looking cheap relative to other oilseeds were also supporting the market.

About 16,248 contracts changed hands on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 6,414 contracts traded. Spreading was a feature of the activity in canola, as both funds and farmers moved to the sidelines, brokers said.

Durum and barley were untraded and unchanged. Milling wheat was also untraded, though the Exchange adjusted prices higher after Friday’s close.

SOYBEANS finished 24 to 31 cents lower Friday, falling along with the tumbling crude oil market. OPEC’s decision not to cut prices on Thursday was causing crude oil values to fall to fresh four-and-a-half year lows.

Continued improving conditions for South American soybean crops helped to weigh on the market, as did a recent pickup in farmer selling into US cash markets, market watchers said.

Chart-based selling and a strengthening US dollar also contributed to the price softness. Light holiday activity was exaggerating the losses.

However, positive weekly export sales data from the USDA was limiting the declines.

SOYOIL futures were also lower in Chicago, undermined by weakness in the crude oil market.

SOYMEAL futures were softer, following the losses seen in soybeans and soyoil, participants said.

CORN futures were slightly softer, following the sharp losses seen in soybeans. Prices ended 2 to 4 cents lower.

The declining crude oil market was also bearish for corn, as it could discourage ethanol usage and blending, which would in turn lower the demand for corn in the ethanol market, brokers noted.

However, positive weekly export sales data, which beat expectations, were underpinning values, as was spillover support from the gains in wheat.

WHEAT values were up sharply, finishing 13 to 16 cents higher in Chicago.

Signs that export demand for US wheat is picking up were behind the gains. The USDA’s weekly export sales data showed sales increased by 19 per cent compared to the week prior, and up 16 per cent from the month prior.

Further support came from worries about cold weather damaging winter wheat crops in the US, Ukraine and Russia.

Buy-stops were hit on the way up, and helped to exaggerate the advances, analysts said.

ICE Futures Canada settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

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