Weather drives canola higher

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Published: July 8, 2010

Winnipeg canola futures jumped higher Wednesday on continuing excess moisture problems in Canada and a heat wave in Europe.

Southern Manitoba is under a severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon.

Central Alberta received heavy rain and hail in the past two days.

Meanwhile, temperatures in Europe are peaking at 35 C.

Germany’s farm co-operative lowered its outlook for grain production to 44.2 million tonnes, down from 47 million last month. Last year it produced almost 50 million tonnes.

It cut its rapeseed forecast to 5.62 million tonnes from 5.91 in June. Last year it produced 6.28 million tonnes.

Russia’s worst drought in decades continues. There are now 17 regions along the Volga River in the southern Urals that are in a state of emergency.

Analytical firm Informa Economics cut its wheat production outlook for the countries of the former Soviet Union to 94.6 million tonnes. The U.S. Department of Agriculture outlook delivered last week put the number at 100.6 million tonnes.

U.S. crop futures rose on forecasts that temperatures in the Midwest could climb to 38 C next week.

The July contract expired today, up $3.50 per tonne to $442.40 on no trades.

Benchmark new crop November canola rose $3.50 to $442.40 on 7,040 trades. At one point, November hit $447, the highest point since August 2009.

The January contract rose $3.50 to $443.30 on 669 trades.

The previous day’s best basis was $3 per tonne off the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November was 67 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.03 cents US, down from 97.24 cents at noon the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0306 Cdn.

Winnipeg July barley expired steady and untraded at $172. October was steady at $156.50 and December was $156.50.

There are 10 open barley contracts in October and 10 in December.

Chicago July soybeans expired up 5.5 cents at $10.36 US per bushel, while August soybeans rose 2.5 cents to $9.975. New crop November rose 7.5 cents to $9.62.

July oats expired, up 7.75 cents to $2.5425 per bu. September oats rose six cents to $2.59 per bu. December oats rose 6.5 cents to $2.655 per bu.

In New York, crude oil for August delivery fell 11 cents to $77.04 per barrel.

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