GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
Grain markets are generally firmer coming into this morning. Short-covering was featured in the grain futures markets overnight.
ICE canola futures are posting early gains of $3 to $4/tonne. Chicago soybeans are bouncing nicely this morning…up 6 to 11 cents/bu, led by the nearby contracts. Soymeal and bean oil futures are also higher.
CBOT corn futures are up 2 to 3 cents this morning.
US wheat markets are also on the rise…generally trading 2 to 5 cents higher.
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AM Market Report – April 9, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain markets are in the green to start this morning….
On Tuesday, grain markets mostly closed lower as weakness spilled over from the same action in outside markets following increased tensions between the US and Europe over US President Trump’s plans to annex Greenland. The President threatened a fresh round of tariff increases on eight countries if a deal is not reached. Trump-inspired tension between Washington and Europe has unsettled investors, with ample global supply also hanging over grain markets.
Expectations for a record Brazilian soybean harvest and ample global cereal supplies continue to curb prices. But strong demand for soybeans for US processors responding to expanded US biofuel production requiring soyoil is helping underpin US prices.
The wheat market was assessing optional origin purchases this week by Saudi Arabia and Algeria. While absorbing a chunk of global supply, prices suggested stiff competition between export zones.
In Other News
– Carney stands behind Greenland, calls for criticism of allies who resort to economic coercion… In an inspired and frank presentation on Tuesday to the delegates at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he said that middle powers must stop pretending the rules-based international order is still functioning and instead build coalitions to survive. Carney turned heads and made headlines yesterday in a provocative speech where he urged countries to start condemning economic coercion, even when practised by a great power ally…a clear reference to the United States.
It was a speech he wrote himself to outline Canada s foreign policy going forward and made some bold statements as to limits to what the world s should be willing to accept from what he called the powerful. While Carney didn’t mention US President Donald Trump by name, he did reference “American hegemony,” saying “great powers” were weaponizing economic integration. Carney argued that bilaterally negotiating with these countries puts middle powers like Canada at a disadvantage, proposing instead that like-minded middle powers band together. Integration can lead to “subordination,” he said.
The Prime Minister s speech Tuesday followed an extraordinary threat by US President Trump to impose tariffs on European allies and Britain until Washington is allowed to acquire Greenland.
PM Carney delivers special address at World Economic Forum (begins at 7:25 mark)
– Marketplace awaits Trump s delayed speech in Davos today… Stock market index futures are trying to stage a tentative recovery this morning from yesterday s massive sell-off as traders and investors await US President Donald Trump s address at Davos today to see whether he will ratchet down days of tensions with Europe over US ambitions to take Greenland. Watching Trump speeches creates anxiety akin to watching a baby wield a hammer. I’m watching his speech right now…complete rambling nonsense.
Selling pressure in across stock markets globally eased after Trump struck a more conciliatory tone late Tuesday, ahead of his departure for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, even as he continued to insist the US should take control of the self-ruling territory of Greenland. Trump was due to speak in Davos at 2:30 p.m. local time, but his appearance will be delayed after his aircraft developed technical issues.
European leaders arriving at Davos this week are scrambling not just to manage Trump, but to manage one another. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is seeking dialogue, French President Emmanuel Macron is openly pushing back, and smaller states are watching anxiously to see whether this crisis produces European solidarity…or exposes how it can fracture under pressure, said a Bloomberg report.
– US biofuels industry awaits EPA s final blending rule… The US biofuels industry is awaiting the US Environmental Protection Agency s final rule for blending requirements for 2026 and 2027. The US EPA has proposed setting 2026 biomass-based diesel blending requirements at 5.6 billion gallons and 2027 volumes at 5.86 billion gallons. Kurt Kovarik with Clean Fuels Alliance America says it s a significant increase from previous years and more than the biofuels industry requested. Which is unbelievable and outstanding, he says. If we are in that neighborhood, I think we ll see immediate reaction in the commodity price and margin opportunity for a biodiesel producer.
US blending requirements were expected to be finalized by the end of November, but there have been delays due to technical and legal issues, along with a US government shutdown.
The EPA says it still plans to finalize its 2026/2027 blending requirements in the first quarter of the year. Kovarik says he was hoping for news by now, but I think we re extremely close.
– Despite dropped tariffs, work remains for Pulse Canada… MarketsFarm reporter Adam Peleshaty writes that Canadian pulse growers had reason to celebrate after Prime Minister Mark Carney s visit to China last week. China announced Jan 16 it was entirely dropping 100% tariffs imposed last March on Canadian yellow pea imports. Greg Cherewyk, president of Pulse Canada, said seeing the duty removed from yellow peas brings a sense of relief to growers. Canada s been exporting to China for 30 years, and in the last 10 years, China s become the largest importer of yellow peas in the world, he said. To have been shut out of the largest market in the world…was pretty impactful for this industry.
He expects Canadian yellow pea shipments to China to resume immediately after the tariffs are lifted on March 1, adding that Canada typically exports 100,000 tonnes of yellow peas per month to China on average. However, Cherewyk warned there are many factors which can affect the amount, including demand from the animal feed, human food and pet food industries.
Despite the upcoming removal of China s tariffs on Canadian yellow peas, India has been imposing a 30% tariff on them since October. Pulse Canada is watching the Indian market closely as numerous factors including food prices, domestic production and politics can abruptly alter India s trade strategy.
We always have to be mindful of what s happening in India. It s a massive market, an important market for Canada, he said. With that being said, we are looking forward to free trade negotiations hopefully soon between Canada and India and hoping to get some predictability.
Because of India s tariffs, Pulse Canada has intensified its focus on adding new trade partners for Canadian pulses, with a priority on gaining footholds in the animal feed and pet food markets. We have been doing feeding trials throughout the Indo-Pacific or Asia-Pacific, generating interest in that region. We re doing that work now into Mexico, as well, Cherewyk said. The diversification effort doesn t stop with the lifting of the tariffs in China. We ll continue to do that work because it s still incredibly important that we have other outlets for our products so that we re not so heavily reliant on a handful of markets in the world.
Cherewyk added that Pulse Canada is looking to have lentil exports make inroads into the United States and European Union, while also promoting other crops under Pulse Canada s umbrella. From peas to lentils to chickpeas and edible beans to faba beans, there s work happening in food markets, pet food as well as animal feed, he said.
– EU 2025/26 soybean imports down 16%, rapeseed down 41%…European Union soybean imports for the 2025/26 season that began in July had reached 6.73 MMT by Jan 15, down 16% from a year earlier, though some figures were incomplete, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 2.08 MMT, down 41% year on year. Meanwhile, soymeal imports fell by 11% to 9.86 MMT. EU palm oil imports were at 1.65 MMT, down 3% from a year earlier.
– Ice crust and deep frosts could damage some Ukrainian winter crops… Ice crust and extremely cold weather over the past two weeks could damage winter wheat and winter rapeseed crops in Ukraine’s southern and eastern areas as well as part of its central regions, farmers’ union UAC said on Tuesday. Frosts in temperatures down to -18 degrees Celsius followed prolonged freezing rain, forming ice fields over crops.
“A layer of ice several centimetres thick over several weeks will not do any good for wheat or rapeseed,” UAC said in a weekly report. “There is a risk that the weather could damage the crops.” A clearer picture will emerge in about two weeks, the union added.
– Fertilizer prices to hold firm… Fertilizer markets are expected to remain firmly supported for the next several years, with no meaningful price relief on the horizon, says Keith Busch, CEO of ClearCost. Structural supply deficits, trade disruptions, and rising logistics costs continue to lock in a higher global price floor…and Canadian growers are feeling the effects.
Busch says both nitrogen and phosphorus remain in a significant global shortfall, estimated at about 2 to 3 MMT…the demand is greater than the supply. New capacity is coming, but timelines are long: nitrogen may not return to balance for roughly 24 months, and phosphorus could take 3 to 4 years. Because Canada relies heavily on imported phosphorus and participates in nitrogen trade, domestic prices remain tied to those global constraints.
Geopolitical and trade complications add another layer of cost. Product from Russia, Ukraine, and Iran is still reaching the world market, but often through a convoluted supply chain that’s adding on margin, Busch says. That shift has effectively eliminated the low-cost supply that once tempered prices. Combined with fuel surcharges and long-haul freight across Canada, regional variability remains entrenched.
Recent price lows…urea near $720 and MAP around $1,200/tonne…still sit well above historical norms, pushing growers to explore efficiency tools and alternative products.
Given the outlook, on-farm storage can be a strategic advantage when brief price dips occur within an otherwise strong market.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged down 870.74 points to settle Tuesday at 48,488.59, while the S&P 500 tumbled 143.15 points to 6,796.86. Early Wednesday, the March Dow Jones Futures are down another 42 points.
Market stress remains high this morning after a rout in global bond and stock markets yesterday, with investors flocking to safe-haven gold.
Global stock markets are weakening again this morning…albeit more modestly than yesterday s sell-off…as US threats to acquire Greenland kept investors on edge ahead of President Trump s speech today in Davos.
The sell America trade was the driving force behind major market moves yesterday and again overnight, as investors looked to reduce exposure to the US, seen by many as an unreliable partner pursuing self-defeating policies, said Mantas Vanagas, a senior economist at Westpac.
The March US Dollar Index is down 0.164 at 98.275. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.59 US cents.
Mar crude oil futures are up $0.04 at US $60.40/barrel. Oil prices are ticking slightly higher this morning despite an expected buildup of US crude inventories, moved more by a temporary halt in output at two large fields in Kazakhstan and geopolitical pressure from US threats of tariffs over its bid to gain control of Greenland.
Natural gas futures prices are spiking higher this week, with freezing temperatures taking hold of a large swath of North America and lifting demand for heating. Contracts are on track for their biggest weekly gain in over 35 years, Bloomberg reported. Cold weather is causing energy prices to surge across the globe. Japan s power price rose to a three-month high on Wednesday and European gas futures are up 29% so far this month. Markets are monitoring for potential weakening of the polar vortex winds that could bring more freezing temperatures, said the report.
Gold and silver prices this week have extended their record rallies as the crisis over Greenland and a meltdown in Japanese government debt support safe-haven demand. February Comex gold futures hit an all-time high of $4,891.10 an ounce overnight, with March Comex silver futures on Tuesday hitting a new peak of $95.78 an ounce.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean future are rebounding 6 to 11 cents/bu higher this morning, led by the front month contracts. Bean future closed Tuesday s session down 4 to 5 cents. Soymeal futures are up $2/ton this morning after edging around $1/ton higher in the front months yesterday. Soyoil futures are showing 20 to 39 point gains this morning after slipping 4 to 10 points lower on Tuesday.
Monday morning s US export inspections report showed 1.34 MMT of US soybeans shipped in the week of Jan 15. That was 16.1% below the week prior but 35.1% larger than the same week last year. China was as the largest destination of 611,983 tonnes. The US marketing year total since Sept 1 is now 19.335 MMT of US beans shipped, which is now 40.2% below the same period last year. USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.575 billion bu in 2025-26, down only 16% from the previous year. That s a lot of ground to make up.
Traders are also watching weather in South America, including chances for more hot, dry weather in southern Argentina, potentially stressing the crop. Brazil s expected record soybean harvest is still in the early stages of harvest at around 2% complete. Safras e Mercado projects Brazil s crop at a record large 179.28 MMT.
Chicago corn futures are up 2 to 3 cents/bu this morning. The corn market yesterday posted fractional to penny losses in the nearbys, with other contracts fractionally to 1 cent higher.
Export inspections data showed US corn export at 1.484 MMT shipped in the week that ended Jan 15. That was down 1.35% from the week prior, and 3.81% below the same week last year. US marketing year shipments as of Sept 1 have totaled 29.92 MMT, which is up 55% yr/yr.
Traders are monitoring conditions in South America, still anticipating a record corn crop in Argentina, despite the dryness in some areas. In Brazil, CONAB reports corn planting at 91% for the first crop and just getting started for the second crop.
Commodities in general continue to be wary about new tariffs on the European Union, a major buyer of US ag goods.
US wheat markets are trading higher this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are up 3 to 4 cents, HRW gaining 2 to 5 cents and SRW wheat rising 5 cents. The US wheat complex posted weakness across the three markets on Tuesday…spring wheat finishing 2 to 3 cents lower in the front months on Tuesday.
US export inspection data showed US wheat export shipments at 392,661 tonnes during the week ended Jan 15. That was 23.48% larger than the week prior and 49.97% above the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 started June 1 are 15.975 MMT, which is now 19.84% larger than the same period last year. US wheat inspections are running ahead of USDA’s estimated pace.
Most forecasts have another round of bitterly cold weather for large swaths of US winter wheat growing areas this week, but parts of the region could get snow, limiting the potential for winterkill. Still, the full impact of any freeze damage will remain unknown until the crop emerges from dormancy.
The trade is also watching overwintering conditions in Europe and the Black Sea region.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures ended mixed on Tuesday, with losses in Chicago soybeans and soyoil weighing on the nearby contracts, but the new Canada-China tariff deal helped to support new-crop November canola.
The Chicago crop markets were pressured yesterday by sharp losses in the outside equity markets as US President Donald Trump kept up with his dumb threats over the US holiday long weekend to takeover Greenland. On the other hand, European rapeseed and palm oil were higher yesterday.
Meanwhile, the recently announced Canada-China tariff deal has brought immediate, if measured, relief to the Canadian canola market. Futures prices have risen as the market reacts to sharply reduced tariffs on seed exports…from nearly 76% down to 15%…and the removal of tariffs on canola meal, effective March 2026. Reports say China has already purchased a cargo of Canadian canola seed for March delivery.
While optimism has improved, the market response has been cautious, with ongoing watchfulness on Chinese demand, global supplies, and residual risks.
March canola fell $2.80 yesterday to close at $636.20/tonne, but new crop November was up 90 cents at $651.30.
For today… canola futures are trading $3 to $4/tonne higher this morning after giving up gains on Tuesday as the entire grain and oilseed complex did the same over Trump’s evolving, erratic tariff threats to the world. Mar canola this morning is up $4.30 at $640.50/tonne…again trying to push above its 100-day moving average and continue to trend higher from the late December lows.
Friday’s news from China continues to provide support to our canola market with rumors that canola purchases have already been made for March shipment and strong energy and oilseed prices helping. CBOT soy complex, Malaysian palm oil and EU rapeseed futures are higher this morning.
Canola traders are keeping an eye on CBOT soyoil…Mar contract higher though stalling a bit at the 53.00 US cent/lbs level. But bean oil is being supported by this month s sharp rally in diesel. There is also growing optimism over last week’s reports that US biofuel blending mandates should be finalized by early March.
Oat Market Update
Oat acres in Canada are likely to recede in 2026 with cash prices to remain low, says Scott Shiels, grain procurement manager for Grain Millers Canada in Yorkton, Sask. The crop this year (2025) was just huge, Shiels said. Statistics Canada pegged the 2025 oat harvest at 3.92 MMT, up from 3.36 MMT in 2024.
Shiels believes a common projection in the trade calls for a 3% decline in Canadian oat acres for 2026, although one estimate predicted a 12% drop.
The carryout (2025-26) is going to be large, maybe 700,000 to 750,000 tonnes, Shiels said. That s the largest in a long time.
With that in mind, country elevators in Saskatchewan have already dropped their nearby cash bids for old crop 2 CW oats below $3.00/bu. Manitoba bids are in the area of $3.00 to $3.30/bu…similar to Alberta, though one outlier (Canadian Oats in Sturgeon county Alberta) is posting $3.80/bu for spot delivery.
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