GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are trading around $2/tonne lower to start this morning as grain markets generally adopt a cautious tone ahead of the 11 am CT release of updated USDA monthly supply/demand projections. But traders and analysts generally are not expecting notable revisions to USDA estimates in this report.
Chicago soybean futures are advancing 2 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning, regaining Monday s declines.
CBOT corn futures are up near a penny this morning.
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AM Market Report – April 9, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain markets are in the green to start this morning….
US wheat markets are mixed…winter wheats are steady to 2 cents higher, but spring wheat futures are a penny or less weaker.
Traders await today’s USDA supply/demand reports. Analysts expect a mostly bearish report for US corn, with a large carryout estimate. For soybeans, all eyes are on US export forecasts and world production estimates. For wheat, the USDA’s inventory estimates could be robust.
In Other News
– Russian wheat export prices stable… Increased demand from importers and bad weather in ports supported export prices for Russian wheat last week, offsetting forecasts of a strong new harvest. The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in March was US $231/tonne at the end of last week, the same as a week earlier, said the IKAR consultancy. SovEcon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $230-$233/tonne FOB, compared with $229-$231 at the end of the previous week.
IKAR’s first estimate of Russian wheat exports in February is 3.0-3.3 MMT. The Sea of Azov’s frozen condition and Black Sea storms continued to severely limit shipments, IKAR noted.
“Many regular buyers of Russian wheat have stepped up purchases in recent weeks ahead of Ramadan, which begins on February 17. Egypt has been actively booking Russian, Ukrainian and French wheat. In the second half of January, Saudi Arabia and Algeria held large tenders,” SovEcon said in a weekly note.
Expecting higher prices, Russian farmers were also postponing sales, SovEcon said. It estimated February wheat exports at 3.1 MMT.
The share of Russian winter crops in normal condition as of Feb 5 stood at 97% compared to 87% in the same period of 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said last week. “Overall, the winter crop setup has improved, with limited winterkill risk for now and ample snow cover that could support spring moisture”, SovEcon said.
– Moldy beans in Mato Grosso… Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier observed that weeks of persistent heavy rains have resulted in low quality soybeans in the northern half of Mato Grosso, Brazil s largest soy production state. He says some farmers report soybeans harvested at 30-35% moisture to get them out of the field before seed quality further deteriorated. Cordonnier said they are reporting that 30% or more of the seeds are moldy, shriveled, broken, or otherwise of such poor quality that grain elevators won t accept them because they cannot be blended with good quality seed and still meet the international standard.
Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged this week at 179.0 MMT, with a neutral to slightly higher bias. In addition to the quality problems, hot and dry conditions have continued in southern Brazil.
Both situations may not necessarily result in a lower production estimate, but could keep it from moving higher, he said.
– Trump threatens to block opening of new bridge between Windsor and Detroit… In his latest example of economic terrorism, US President Donald Trump is threatening to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge, poised to become the newest border crossing between Windsor, Ont., and Detroit. “I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve,” Trump wrote in the post on Monday.
CBC News has asked the White House for further clarification, but did not receive a response Monday night.
Trump made the threat amid yet another rambling 299-word post in which he said Canada has treated the US “very unfairly for decades,” complained that the bridge was built “with virtually no US content” and repeated his criticism of Prime Minister Mark Carney “wanting to make a trade deal with China.”
“With all that we have given them, we should own, perhaps, at least one half of this asset,” he wrote.
The $6.4 billion cost of the Gordie Howe bridge has been entirely funded by Canada’s federal government, but the bridge is under the public joint ownership of Canada and the state of Michigan.
This is just the latest example of the US president’s sabre-rattling toward Canada amid the looming renegotiations of the three-nation free trade agreement with Mexico, known as CUSMA.
– Macron warns of renewed friction with US… Europe should brace for more moments of US hostility, French President Emmanuel Macron has warned, and should treat what he called the “Greenland moment” as a wake?up call to push through long?delayed reforms to strengthen the bloc s global power. In an interview with several European newspapers, the French leader said the European Union should not mistake a lull in tensions with Washington for a lasting shift despite a pause in US threats over Greenland, trade and technology.
Macron urged EU leaders to use a summit in a Belgian castle this week to inject fresh energy into economic reforms to bolster the bloc’s competitiveness and strengthen its ability to stand up to China and the United States on the world stage. When there s a clear act of aggression, I think what we should do isn t bow down or try to reach a settlement,” Macron told Le Monde, the Financial Times and other newspapers in comments published on Tuesday. “We ve tried that strategy for months. It s not working,
Macron said the Trump regime was being “openly anti-European” and seeking the EU s “dismemberment”. He said he anticipated further tensions with the Trump administration.
– Environmental Protection Agency to significantly roll back US emissions standards… The US Environmental Protection Agency plans to repeal a policy that provides the legal foundation for rules regulating greenhouse gas emissions, Bloomberg reports. The policy to be repealed is the Obama-era endangerment finding, a scientific determination that greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare. A decision to repeal the finding is expected to lay the groundwork for a further unwinding of climate protections in the US and has been opposed by scientific experts and environmental groups, said the report.
The ruling could come as early as Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the details, Bloomberg said. The policy underpins rules, including federal emissions standards for cars and trucks. This amounts to the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin was quoted as telling the Wall Street Journal, which first reported the planned timing, Bloomberg said.
– Yuan rallies after China urges its financial firms to limit buying US Treasuries… China s offshore yuan has advanced to 6.9 per US dollar, nearing its highest level in 34 months, as momentum builds after Chinese regulators urged banks to curb excessive exposure to US Treasuries. Financial institutions were advised to rein in US Treasury holdings and trim positions where exposure is high, citing concerns over concentration risks and to mitigate the impact of uncertain US economic policies. The shift underscores a broader global move away from US dollar assets and fueled expectations of a gradual structural shift in China s currency strategy, especially after President Xi Jinping outlined ambitions for a powerful currency in state media earlier this month, said TradingEconomics.com.
– Russia just buying time in peace talks… Russia is exploiting negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as a tool for manipulation with no intention of ending the invasion, according to an assessment by Estonian foreign intelligence and as reported by Bloomberg. The Kremlin’s main objective is to restore full relations with the US, which would open the possibility of direct flights and visas for the business elite, as well as easing the path for espionage and influence operations. Russia is highly likely preparing for future conflict even as its war against Ukraine continues, and its military-industrial complex will continue to be a danger to its neighbors even after a peace deal might be agreed, said the Bloomberg report.
– USDA reputation suffers… A Reuters report notes that the US Department of Agriculture, long the world’s gold standard for crop estimates, faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and a sharp upward revision in how many acres of corn were harvested. Farmers, traders and food manufacturers everywhere closely follow monthly USDA reports on production, supplies and demand so they can anticipate prices and inventories.
But thousands of employees left USDA last year as part of US President Trump’s drive to shrink the federal government, and experts worry the shrinking staff has hobbled the agency’s ability to produce accurate and timely data.
USDA data last month “appeared to reflect an agency in disarray,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for consultancy StoneX, citing changes to acres and other estimates. The revisions prompted USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, which releases acreage estimates, to launch an internal review.
Last summer, Trump fired a top US Labor Department official following a weak scorecard of the US job market, stoking concerns about the quality of US federal government data.
– Canadians worked first 39 days of 2026 to pay for year s grocery bill says CFA… The average Canadian household earned enough money to cover its annual grocery bill for 2026 by this past Sunday, according to calculations from the Canadian Federation of Agriculture. The Food Freedom Day analysis shows us that despite Canada being a global food supplier, there are large segments of Canadians that are struggling with food affordability, and this burden seems to be growing, said CFA president Keith Currie. Food Freedom Day fell on Feb. 8, the same date as last year, the CFA said. Canadian spent 10.8% of their disposable income on food and beverages in 2025 compared to 10.7% in 2024.
Average disposable income figures don t fully reflect the pressure that rising food costs place on households, especially those with lower incomes, the CFA said. Global disruptions and inflationary pressures have further strained food affordability and food security across the country.
Households in the lowest quintile of income spent 28.20% of disposable incomes on food, the CFA said, citing StatCan data. Households in the highest income quintile spent 5.18%.
While food price inflation has slowed in some categories, food prices are 27% higher than they were in 2020, the most recent Canada s Food Price Report showed. Meat prices led hikes in 2025. As such, food affordability continues to be a key concern for consumers. A quarter of Canadians are considered food insecure and 2.2 million people visited food banks monthly last year.
The CFA flagged the review of the CUSMA trade agreement as a future risk for food prices. Most food products are exempt from tariffs under CUSMA and any shift could be costly for consumers.
With the threat of tariffs hanging over our head from the U.S. and other major trading partners, these food affordability concerns only highlight the critical importance of a united Canadian approach to maintaining open and predictable North American trade, Currie said.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up a modest 20.20 points on Monday to settle at 50,135.87 and the S&P 500 up 32.52 at 6,964.82. Canada s TSX composite stock index futures soared 552 points higher yesterday to 33,023 points…its largest gain in six months. Early Tuesday, the March Dow Jones Futures are up 30 points.
Global stock markets are muted this morning as investors reassessed positions after last week s AI-sparked sell-off. Wall Street futures are slightly higher, with traders looking out for US retail sales numbers that kick off a series of key data releases this week.
Investors appear to be losing patience with their Big Tech darlings…Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta…despite their strong results, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. Meanwhile, value stocks have started to close the gap with tech…the widely anticipated rotation trade. This has been the base-case scenario for many global investors and is expected to continue.
The March US Dollar Index is down 0.053 at 96.635. The Canadian dollar edged up against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.92 US cents.
March crude oil futures are up $0.26 at US $64.62/barrel. Oil prices are slightly stronger this morning as traders continue to gauge the potential for supply disruptions after US guidance for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran. But unless there are concrete signs of supply disruptions, prices will likely start going lower. Oil remains an ?oversupplied market against geopolitics.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading 2 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures posted declines of 3 to 5 cents on Monday. Futures fell yesterday on profit-taking after a rally last week drove prices to a two-month high above $11.00/bu, tied to US President Donald Trump s remarks that China may buy more beans from the United States…though the trade remains skeptical.
The expanding harvest of a record-large Brazilian soybean crop added to bearish sentiment. But there are emerging concerns about the impact of excessively wet weather in parts of Brazil during harvest on quality.
But CBOT soyoil futures bucked the lower trend yesterday, rising more than 2% after the US and India released an interim framework for a trade deal that could lower barriers to Indian imports of US soyoil.
Soymeal futures are up around $1+/ton this morning after dipped a dime to $5/t lower on Monday. Soyoil futures are slipping a modest 5 to 14 points lower right now after rallying 102 to 136 points higher yesterday.
Monday morning s USDA export inspections report showed 1.136 MMT of US soybean shipped in the week ended Feb 5. That was 13.8% below the week prior and 3.5% shy of the same week last year. China was the largest destination at 747,198 tonnes. The US marketing year total is now 23.136 MMT of soybeans shipped since September, which is still 34.4% below the same period last year.
Chicago corn futures are up around a penny this morning. The corn market settled 1 to 2 cents lower on Monday.
USDA export inspections data showed US corn shipments at 1.308 MMT for the week ended Feb 5. That was up 14.01% from the week prior, but down 4.19% the same week last year. US marketing year shipments since Sept 1 have totaled 33.93 MMT, which is up 46.72% yr/yr.
The USDA will update its US/World supply/demand numbers later this morning, with some expecting a cut in domestic US feed use because of tight livestock supplies. But demand for US corn remains solid on both exports and for ethanol production. But big US supply continues to loom over the market.
Traders are monitoring the needed rain in Argentina, along with first crop harvest and second crop planting in Brazil. Some of the production guesses have been lowered for Argentina, and Brazil s combined corn crop will be smaller than last year, but it looks like South American corn production in total will again be large.
US wheat markets are mixed this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are a penny or less weaker, HRW up 2 cents and SRW wheat steady to fractionally higher. The US wheat complex weaker Monday across most contracts, though spring wheat tried to hold up…finishing fractionally higher to 2 cents lower at the close.
USDA tallied US wheat export shipments at 580,130 MT for the week ending Feb 5. That was 75.52% above the week prior and 1.72% larger than the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 17.327 MMT since June 1, which is now 18.36% above the same period last year.
The USDA might make minimal changes to US and world wheat numbers in today s supply/demand report.
Ongoing drought in the US Plains could impact US winter wheat development, with the trade also monitoring overwintering conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.
APK-Inform now has 2025/26 wheat exports for Ukraine at 14.5 MMT, a drop from the last guess of 16.7 MMT.
The most recent round of negotiations aimed at ending Russia s war on Ukraine made little to no progress.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures closed higher on Monday, more than recovering the losses from Friday. Good gains in Chicago soyoil helped to underpin canola. Bean oil moved higher yesterday on reports India could be reducing its tariffs on US soyoil as part of a new trade agreement between the two countries. India, the largest importer of palm, soybean, and sunflower oils, now sources most of its supplies from Southeast Asia and South America, but the drop in tariffs could make American product more competitive.
Crude oil was also stronger yesterday, but European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were both mixed. Gains in the Canadian dollar helped to limit canola gains.
The USDA will release its monthly supply/demand update today at 11 am CT.
March canola finished $4.90 higher on Monday at $665.70/tonne, and November was $5.30 higher at $673.90.
For today… canola futures are trading mostly $2 to $3/tonne lower so far this morning. Nearby Mar canola futures are down $2.90 at $662.80/tonne as the recent market rally seems to be leveling off ahead of today s USDA supply/demand report release just below its 200-day moving average ($667) and the November high around $670.
Speculative fund traders reduced their net short position in canola futures for the fourth straight week in the latest Commitments of Traders report. The net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 42,379 contracts as of Feb 3. That net short was down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week on a combination of short-covering and new longs going on the books. It marks the smallest net short in canola in two months.
In related markets…CBOT soybeans are 2 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning. CBOT soyoil is quietly lower ahead of the USDA update today after it flirted with contract highs overnight. The potential for increased demand from India, the low bean oil yield, the 45Z proposal confirming used cooking oil and tallow are not eligible for the US tax credit, and expectations of a jump in the US biofuel blending mandate continue to support a test of contract highs in soyoil.
European rapeseed futures are quietly lower following the recent impressive gains.
Malaysian palm oil futures are lower…hovering near their lowest level in almost three weeks, pressured by a firmer ringgit and weakness across edible oils on China s Dalian exchange. Traders also turned cautious ahead of China s upcoming CPI and PPI data later this week, given the country s role as a key palm oil buyer. Losses, however, were partly capped by monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showing a tighter supply outlook.
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