GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
Grain futures markets are mostly lower coming into this morning. The steep drop in crude oil prices overnight has put downside price pressure across grain and oilseed markets.
ICE canola futures are dropping $9 to $11/tonne, building on yesterday s declines…suggesting a potential downside breakout of the multi-week coiling pattern on price charts. Plunging crude oil and CBOT soyoil markets this morning are leading canola lower.
Chicago soybean futures are 1 to 3 cents/bu weaker this morning…also pressed modestly down by soyoil, but getting some support from slightly higher soymeal. Spread traders are now unwinding long bean oil/short meal spreads, and meal may have more room to run on the upside in the near term.
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AM Market Report – April 9, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain markets are in the green to start this morning….
Chicago corn futures are falling 5 to 7 cents this morning…gapping down into a 5-week low.
US wheat markets are downside leaders…Minnie spring wheat futures are selling down 11 to 15 cents currently, HRW 15 to 16 cents lower and SRW wheat knocking 17 to 19 cents lower. Wheat markets gapped lower overnight, with winter wheats hitting 5-week lows. Forecasts for beneficial rains in US wheat country is seen as price-bearish for wheat.
The US, Israel and Iran all agree to two-week ceasefire and will discuss a deal to end war. (More in story below). Major relief rallies sweep through global stock and financial markets, while crude oil and gas prices have crashed lower this morning.
Grain futures were lifted in March as the war sent crude prices soaring, but have since seen the correlation weaken aside from vegoils and canola. Cereal grains have struggled to maintain upside momentum on expectations for ample near-term supplies, though the fertilizer shock created by the war has raised concerns about longer term global food production prospects.
In Other News
– Last-minute off-ramp in US war with Iran… As recent as yesterday morning, US President Donald Trump was threatening, A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again if Iran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But by last night, Trump abruptly announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. He said he would suspend all US military strikes if Tehran paused its blockade of the Strait, buying both sides more time to hammer out a peace deal. Iran agreed to halt its attacks, as well, and allow safe passage of ships through the strait under Iranian watch. Israel will also abide by the ceasefire, suspending its bombing campaign in Iran, though it continued attacking Lebanon this morning.
Despite his reckless bravado, Trump essentially surrendered to the 10-point proposal presented by Iran as a workable basis for negotiation and that he expected an agreement to be finalized and consummated over the next two weeks. Tehran issued a statement that talks between the two countries would begin on Friday in Islamabad. That isn t a surprising location: Pakistan has worked hard to position itself as a peace broker in this conflict, and spent much of yesterday engaged in frantic diplomatic efforts to reach some sort of deal.
But Trump has also shown that he s very willing to back down from his maximalist threats…this is the fourth time that he s extended his deadline for Tehran to cut a deal.
It s unclear whether this shaky/fragile ceasefire will hold: Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reported drone and missile attacks early this morning. And it s unclear whether Trump will face any consequences for yesterday s threat to eliminate Iranian civilization…incendiary rhetoric that UN rights chief Volker T rk decried as a war crime. More than a quarter of congressional Democrats called for Trump s removal from office yesterday, either through impeachment or the 25th Amendment, though the chances of that happening are pretty much nil.
But for now, Trump seems to be sticking with his two-week ceasefire. The deadline to end his war in Iran moves forward to April 21…unless the President changes his mind again. Overall, this sets up a high-stakes two-week window where de-escalation is possible but far from guaranteed, keeping geopolitical and energy market volatility elevated.
This morning… Trump announced a new 50% tariff against any country supplying military weapons to Iran.
– All roads lead to higher prices, slower growth ... International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters in an interview late Monday that inflation and an economic slowdown as a result of the war have become largely inescapable.
The IMF is expected to release a range of scenarios in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook due on April 14. Without the war, Georgieva said the IMF had expected a small rise in its projection for global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 as economies continue to recover from the pandemic. But even if the conflict is swiftly resolved, the IMF remains on track to cut its forecast for economic growth and bump up its outlook for inflation, Georgieva said. “Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” she said.
– Ceasefire may be too late to avoid food inflation… Unless Iran peace talks progress rapidly, higher fertilizer prices may lower crop yields and fuel food inflation. The Bloomberg Agricultural Subindex gained 4% this year on concern over how farmers will respond to higher costs in the Northern Hemisphere planting season. It retreated less than 1% on news of a two-week ceasefire. Speculators in corn, wheat and soybean futures are the most net long since 2023. The last such commodity shock in 2022 stoked inflation for more than a year. Speculators in corn, soybeans and wheat were net long about 15% of open interest in the latest weekly data released April 3, a level last seen at the end of the 2021 to 2022 grains rally. The Bloomberg Grains Spot index is 40% lower than its high in 2022.
– CUSMA agreement, bilateral resolutions… US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Tuesday that a North American free trade agreement can be reworked to serve as a trilateral dialogue, but also a platform for addressing bilateral issues between participants. The comments come after US President Trump in recent months questioned whether the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) makes sense as a trilateral deal, since many of the thorniest trade issues between the US and its neighbors are bilateral issues.
We do have to have some kind of a protocol or something with Mexico and one with Canada, separately I think, to deal with issues specific to those countries, Greer said during an event hosted by the Hudson Institute. But he added that parties can layer over those protocols on the existing agreement, the report said.
The US has been working with Mexico over the past year to address a range of bilateral irritants…both trade and non-trade issues, such as drug cartels and illegal immigration. Last month, Greer s office began technical discussions with its Mexican counterparts about rules of origin, foreign investment and tariffs.
Canada s trade team in Washington, led by chief negotiator Janice Charette and ambassador Mark Wiseman, has re-engaged with the Trump administration over the past month after several months of virtually no contact. But formal CUSMA review talks between Washington and Ottawa have yet to start.
Greer said Tuesday that he expects bilateral negotiations with both partners to continue past the formal review date this summer.
– Grain traders await monthly USDA supply/demand report… The USDA on Thursday (Apr 9) is expected to show only small changes in its estimates of US corn, soybean and wheat marketing year-end carryout from the March report. However, US corn stocks in March are still expected to be significantly higher than in March of 2025. US wheat and soybean stocks are seen modestly above levels seen at the same time last year. Meantime, traders expect the agency to estimate Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production levels to be very close to what it estimated in the March report.
– Indonesia sets biofuel mandate timeline… Indonesia’s energy ministry has issued a ministerial decree setting the timeline for the implementation of its biofuel blending mandate, as it tries meet its energy transition and self-sufficiency targets. It ?said that by 2028, all biodiesel users will shift to the B50 standard, which includes 50% palm oil-based fuel.
Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, originally planned to implement a mandatory blend of “at ?least” 40% palm-based biodiesel blended with 60% conventional diesel in 2026, according ?to a decree signed on March 3. Indonesia has since ?said it will launch a program to raise the mandatory blending rate for palm-based biodiesel ?from 40% to 50%, a standard known as B50, starting July 1. The early implementation ?of B50 was part of a wider government plan to mitigate risks arising from the Iran war. Indonesia plans to keep the palm oil blending rate at 50% for subsidized diesel in 2027, but unsubsidized diesel ?could stay at 40%, depending on the capacity available. B50 will be the standard ?for all users by 2028, the decree said.
Indonesia also plans to mix non-subsidized gasoline with ?at least ?5% ethanol in Java, the country’s most populated island, over the 2026-27 period, and raise the proportion to 10% by 2028.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average down pushed 85.42 points lower on Tuesday to settle at 46,584.46, but the S&P 500 edged up 5.02 points at 6,616.85. Canada S&P/TSX stock index yesterday gained 55 points to 33,237.
Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones futures have exploded up 1,244 points. European and Asian stock markets also rallied higher overnight. TSX futures have followed bullish sentiment higher.
Global stock markets shot higher as investors breathed a sigh of relief after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with expectations that energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could resume.
The rally will need to be backed up by tangible progress in negotiations to hold. The underlying question of whether Iran will permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz and whether a lasting deal can be reached is still very much unresolved, said Josh Gilbert, market analyst for eToro. If the two weeks pass without a ?deal, expect a sharp and unforgiving reversal of this relief rally.
The June US Dollar Index has plunged down 1.327 to 98.355. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.18 US cents.
May crude oil futures are being slammed down $20.82 to US $92.13/barrel. Oil pricing crashed below $100/barrel after the ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In theory, the 10 13 (million barrels per day) of crude oil ?and product supply stranded behind the Strait should now be gradually released, said Tamas Varga, analyst at brokerage PVM Oil. Whether the pre-March status quo will be re-established depends entirely on whether the truce can be turned into a permanent peace during the negotiations in Pakistan.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 3 cents/bu lower this morning. Bean futures posted Tuesday losses of 6 to 9 cents in the nearby contracts. Soymeal futures are up $1 to $2/ton this morning after losing $1 to $4/ton in the front months yesterday. Soyoil futures are plunging down 207 to 239 points this morning after slipping a modest 8 to 31 points on Tuesday.
Crude oil is down $20/barrel so far this morning following a 2-week ceasefire between Iran and the US that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic was limited overnight. Early this morning President Trump posted that a country supply military weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed by a rate of 50%. Probably an empty threat.
USDA will release its updated monthly US/world supply/demand report on Thursday morning (Apr 9). A survey of analysts by Bloomberg shows very few changes expected to the US soy balance sheet with an average estimate at 349 million bu for US soybean carryout vs 350 million bu in March.
Brazil s harvest is more than 80% complete, while the harvest is underway in Argentina. Soybean exports out of Brazil totaled 14.52 MMT in March according to the country s trade data, double the February total, but down 1.11% from a year ago.
The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its outlook for consumption and plant capacity for ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. The forecast for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels was raised by 5.1% for 2026 and 8.6% for 2027 from last month.
Chicago corn futures are gapping 5 to 7 cents down this morning into a 5-week low. The corn market ended 4 to 5 cents lower on Tuesday. Technically, upside chart support for the May corn contract has been broken. Crude oil is down hard so far this morning following a 2-week ceasefire between Iran and the US that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Ahead of USDA s supply/demand update on Thursday, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for a slight increase (3 million bu) from March to 2.13 billion bu for the US corn carryout projection.
Traders are monitoring harvest activity in Argentina and second crop development weather in Brazil.
US wheat markets are the downside leaders this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are selling down 11 to 15 cents, HRW flushing 15 to 16 cents lower, while SRW wheat has tumbled 17 to 19 cents. The wheats have come off start-of-the-month highs to suddenly collapse to 5-week lows.
The USDA s first US winter wheat good to excellent condition rating of 2026 was well below a year ago, with soft red generally in better shape than hard red. Parts of the US Plains could see much-needed rain this week, but there are questions about coverage, and it d take a full pattern shift to erase the HRW drought region.
Analysts are looking for USDA to trim its estimate of US wheat ending stocks estimate by 8 million bu to 923 million bu in Thursday s report, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Argus estimates the Russian wheat crop at 88.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from their previous number. European Commission data shows 18 MMT of EU wheat exports from July 1 to April 5, which is 1.21 MMT above the same time last year.
Traders are monitoring early spring planting activity in the US and Canada, while assessing conditions for winter wheat in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere and planting weather in the Southern Hemisphere. The trade is also keeping an eye on Russia s ongoing war on Ukraine and its impact on trade in the Black Sea region.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures closed lower for the second straight day on Tuesday, pressured by weakness in outside vegetable oil markets and a modest pullback in crude oil prices, which reduced support for biofuel-linked commodities.
Spillover pressure from Chicago soyoil futures weighed on canola values, as the broader oilseed complex struggled to sustain recent gains. At the same time, improving moisture in parts of the Canadian Prairies and generally favourable South American soybean crop prospects added to the bearish tone, reinforcing expectations for adequate global oilseed supplies.
May canola fell $7.20 yesterday to close at $719.40/tonne, and November lost $5.10 to $727.60.
For today… canola futures are trading $9 to $11/tonne lower this morning…now a third consecutive day of declines. May canola futures are down $11.20 right now at $708.20/tonne, threatening a potential downside breakout of the multi-week coiling pattern on the price chart. Plunging crude oil and CBOT soyoil markets this morning are leading canola lower. But given the shaky nature of the US-Iran war ceasefire, and strong possibility it may fail, look for bargain hunting to support May canola over the $700/t level.
But for now…with energies and world vegoils firmly selling off…canola has no choice but to follow. Notable to watch…CBOT soyoil gapping lower overnight…touching limit-down briefly…leaving a potential double top marker on price charts. That said, the pullback hasn’t even broken below the 20-day moving average, suggesting bargain hunting may be expected on any signs of the ceasefire failing. And note…the EIA confirmed a sharp increase in the expected use of US biofuel thanks to the final blending mandate rules.
On the feed grains… Feed grain prices were slightly higher for the week ended April 6, as demand continued to increase amid uncertainty due to rising fuel prices and the war in Iran…but overnight Persian Gulf war developments have weighed on grain markets over the past 12 hours.
Feed barley in Lethbridge is selling for $300 to as high as $300/tonne for May and June delivery, up $5 to $10 from two weeks earlier. There still seems to be some very aggressive bids for feed barley from the line companies.
But rising fuel prices, brought on by the war in Iran, have tightened margins for farmers, grain companies and railways, resulting in surcharges and higher freight rates. Where grain prices could go from here is hard to determine.
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