GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are ticking less than $1/tonne higher this morning, supported by rising world vegoil and energy markets as Middle East war escalation intensifies.
Chicago soybean futures are steady to a penny higher this morning, also supported by rising soyoil and energies.
Conversely, CBOT corn futures are losing a penny this morning. Including the lower start this morning, the corn market has been down in 6 of the past 8 trading sessions, as the nearby May contract has sagged to important trendline support on the chart near the $4.50/bu level.
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AM Market Report – April 9, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain markets are in the green to start this morning….
US wheat markets are weaker…mostly 1 to 3 cents lower. The winter wheat market bulls in the overnight trade got no traction after Monday afternoon s initial USDA crop progress report showed a much-lower-than-expected US winter wheat crop good-excellent condition rating. (See item below). Added rainfall chances are weighing on the HRW wheat market.
Traders are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, especially as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to agree to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approaches at 7 pm CDT today. US and regional mediators reported on Monday that Iran rejected a proposal to end hostilities for 45 days. Iran’s counterproposal was deemed “not good enough” by Trump. Crude oil remains firmly above $100/barrel as the conflict continues.
Time is running out to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So far, the buffers in global energy markets…stockpiles, releases from strategic reserves, oil that left the Persian Gulf before the war broke out and oil on which sanctions have been lifted…have helped to keep price rises from spinning out of control. But those buffers will dry up soon, and real physical shortages are emerging in some markets (not just reflected in futures markets), notably East Asia and Africa. Meanwhile, the prices of other distillates, such as fertilizer, diesel, jet fuel and polyethylene, are shooting up.
By next week, those physical shortages will start spreading in Europe. A week later, they ll hit the Americas, and even the US won t be immune. Unless the White House miraculously finds a way to end this crisis within the coming days, things could start to get increasingly difficult for Americans and Canadians.
In Other News
– Rising South American soy/corn crop estimates… Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier on Monday lifted his estimates for South American soybean crops and Argentina s corn crop. Brazil soybeans are up 1 MMT at 179 MMT: The country s soybean crop was 79.5% harvested as of late last week compared to 85.8% last year and 80.4% on average, according to Patria AgroNegocios, Cordonnier noted. The last major soybean state to harvest is Rio Grande do Sul, which was 24% complete as of late last week. Soybean yields in Mato Grosso ended up quite good, he said, with recent rains aiding the late developing crop. Yields in Rio Grande do Sul will be below initial expectations, but not as bad as previously feared several months ago.
Brazil s corn estimate was left unchanged at 132 MMT. Late planting of the safrinha, or second-crop, corn is increasing the crop s exposure to climate risks later in the growing season, and increased dependence on rain during the months of April and May, the critical period for grain filling, Cordonnier said.
Paraguay s soybean estimate was boosted 0.5 MMT to 12 MMT where the bean harvest is nearly complete. Beans were planted earlier in Paraguay compared to the neighboring Parana state in Brazil, he said…and even though rainfall during the growing season was irregular, it came at critical times.
Argentina soybean and corn estimates raised: Cordonnier lifted his Argentine soybean estimate by 1 MMT to 48 MMT, noting weather continued to improve last week. Early yields are encouraging, he said, and recent rains have improved yield prospects for later developing soybeans. Cordonnier also boosted his Argentine corn estimate by 1 MMT to 54 MMT.
– Russian wheat export prices rise... Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week in response to market fears of a further escalation of the Iranian war and strong demand from importers. By the end of March, the pace of export shipments this season, which began on July 1, had for the first time exceeded the previous season s levels. Analysts said market prices do not yet reflect an attack on Sunday on a Russian grain ship in the Sea of Azov. The wheat-laden vessel sank after what a Russian official said was a Ukrainian drone strike.
The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in May was US $239/tonne at the end of last week, up $1 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. SovEcon expects prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at $238 to $240/t FOB compared to $239 to $242 the week before. The agency raised its estimate of Russian wheat exports in March to 4.7 MMT from last week’s projection of 4.5 MMT. Wheat exports for the July March period of the 2025/26 season are therefore set to reach 37.7 MMT, exceeding last season s figures (36.3 MMT) for the first time this season.
– US winter wheat condition rating lower than a year ago… US winter wheat is out of dormancy and showing the impact of dry weather. The USDA says 35% of US winter wheat is in good to excellent shape, 13% below the first national rating of 2025, while 31% of the crop is poor to very poor, 10% above a year ago. The most recent Drought Monitor shows 65% of US winter wheat growing areas in some stage of drought, affecting hard red winter, soft red winter, and white winter growing areas.
– North Africa s big durum crop could limit demand… Wheat crops are looking good in North Africa, which could limit the need for durum imports in 2026-27. Poor rainfall from October to mid-November delayed cereal planting in Morocco, according to the April report by the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) Crop Monitor. However, a shift to abundant rains from the end of November through February improved water reservoir levels for irrigation and soil moisture levels, supporting establishment and early development. Cumulative rainfall since October is the highest in the last 25 years in the centre and northwest, stated the GEOGLAM report. Crop biomass is well above average in most provinces, including in the eastern regions where cereal growth was initially delayed.
Rainfall distribution in Algeria has been uneven since the beginning of the growing season. Deficits in October and November delayed planting and constrained crop establishment in the northwest, but soil moisture conditions have improved since December, resulting in good crop biomass in some provinces. However, severe weather in late January triggered flash floods in several provinces, resulting in localized damage. Winter cereal biomass is average to above average in the key producing provinces in northeastern Algeria due to timely and abundant rain.
Sources confirm that North Africa is looking at big wheat and durum crops, with one forecast calling for a doubling of Morocco s production in 2026. Based on these outlooks, the North African durum crop could reach 5.6 MMT in 2026, 900,000 tonnes (20%) more than 2025. That is going to reduce 2026-27 import requirements from that important buying region.
Statistics Canada is forecasting that Canadian growers will plant 6.4 million acres of durum in 2026, a 2.4% drop from last year.
– Bad timing on fertilizer demand… India is looking to purchase 2.5 MMT of urea to shore up domestic supplies, which have tightened due ?to the US-Israeli war with Iran, Reuters reported. State-run Indian Potash Ltd issued a tender on Saturday to import 1.5 MMT via the country’s west coast, the report said, with the remaining 1 MMT to arrive through the east coast.
India is the world s largest urea importer. Fertilizer analyst Josh Linville of StoneX dubbed the move a worst-case urea scenario in a post on X. Long shipment period (thru June) will help, but this is bad, he wrote. Global values had been holding back on market fundamentals. Government money just entered the chat.
– Economic skunk at the party… JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in his annual investor letter Monday, warned that a rise in inflation as a result of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could stoke inflation and cause asset prices to drop. The skunk at the party…and it could happen in 2026…would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down, he wrote. This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices. And falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.
Dimon s wide-ranging investment letters are closely followed on Wall Street. His remarks show that uncertainty around the inflationary and supply-chain implications of military conflict remains very much on the radar.
He elaborated:
We all hope these wars get properly resolved. But war is the realm of uncertainty, as each side in a war determines what it wants to do (as is often said, the enemy gets a vote ), and these conflicts involve many countries. Not only do they have a major impact on the nations at war, but they also have an impact on countries and economies across the globe that are not directly involved in war. Nations that are heavily dependent upon imported energy are already seeing the effects. And it s not just energy, it s commodity products that are byproducts of oil and gas, like fertilizer and helium. And given our complex global supply chains, countries are experiencing disruptions in shipbuilding, food and farming, among others. The outcome of current geopolitical events may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic order unfolds then again, it may not.
– Canadians open to joining EU… New polling suggests a majority of Canadians think Canada ought to explore joining the European Union at a fraught time for geopolitical relations. A survey of 4,000 people conducted by Spark Advocacy s polling arm in March found that one in four respondents thought it would be a good idea for Canada to formally join the economic and political bloc of European nations. A further 58% indicated it was a proposal worth exploring further, while the remainder felt it was a bad idea. Spark s chief strategy officer Bruce Anderson says the survey suggests Canadians are increasingly open to finding ways to buck Canada s reliance on the United States after more than a year of tariffs under US President Donald Trump s second administration.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 165.21 points on Monday to settle at 46,669.88, while the S&P 500 gained 29.14 points to 6,611.83. Canada s S&P/TSX stock index picked up 74 points to close 33,182 yesterday.
Early Tuesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 122 points, with European and Asian markets turning lower. Global markets are being pressured in nervous trading as the prospect of escalation in the war in the Middle East intensifies with Trump s deadline for a deal threat looms. There are already reports of US attacks on Iran s oil export facility on Kharg Island.
We are back on a [US President Donald] Trump imposed countdown clock and there s no way to predict with any confidence what will happen, said Kyle Rodda, senior markets analyst at Capital.com. The more intrepid traders might make a bet one way or the other. Others will look to hedge risk or stay out entirely. But there s not much market participants can really do but wait and see.
The June US Dollar Index is down 0.059 at 99.745. The Canadian dollar strengthened ever so slightly against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.89 US cents.
May crude oil futures are up $2.99 at US $115.40/barrel. Oil prices have rallied higher as a US-imposed deadline looms for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or be taken out, with Trump threatening to order attacks on Iranian bridges and power plants. Iran s rejection of the US ceasefire proposal so far has kept tensions elevated and left diplomacy hanging by a thread.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are steady to a penny stronger this morning. Bean futures posted gains on Monday, with contracts 3 to 5 cents higher at the post-Easter close. Soymeal futures are narrowly mixed this morning after also finishing narrowly mixed yesterday in the front months. Soyoil futures are up a modest 16 to 19 points this morning after closing 40 to 101 points higher on Monday.
USDA yesterday tallied US soybean export shipments at 779,352 tonnes during the week ended on April 2. That was 12.3% above the week prior, but 4.6% below the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 30.67 MMT since September 1, which is now 26.3% below the same period last year. USDA is currently estimating US soybean exports to total 42.87 MMT in 2025-26, down 16% from the previous year.
US domestic soy crush margins remain solid. Soybeans and bean oil have received price support from the gains in crude oil, which is supported by the ongoing supply concerns linked to the military actions in Iran and the Middle East.
AgRural estimates that Brazil s record large soybean crop was 82% harvested as of last Thursday, lagging the 87% harvest pace from the same week last year.
Chicago corn futures are losing another 1 cent/bu this morning…now down in 6 of the past 8 trading sessions as the corn market is rolling lower of its March highs.
Monday s USDA export inspections report showed 2.002 MMT of US corn shipped in the week ended April 2. That was 24.09% above the same week last year and 6.50% larger than the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 48.47 MMT of corn shipped since September 1, which is 35.82% above the same period last year. USDA is currently estimating US corn exports to total 3.300 billion bu in 2025-26, up 15% from the previous year.
The corn market of late seems to have detached its link to rising energy markets.
Traders are monitoring harvest in Argentina and second crop development weather in Brazil. The USDA s April supply, demand, and production report is out Thursday (April 9), while CONAB s next round of numbers for Brazil are out April 13.
US wheat markets are weaker this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are losing 1 to almost 3 cents, HRW down 2 to 3 cents and SRW wheat also off 2 to 3 cents…despite weaker than expected US winter conditions reported by USDA yesterday. The US wheat complex was mostly lower on Monday across the three markets…spring wheat finishing 1 to 2 cents in the red on the day.
Some forecasts have improved rain chances later this week for the dry western US Plains, potentially bringing at least some relief to the parched hard red winter crop. In contrast, the soft red winter crop seems to be in relatively good condition.
But USDA s first condition rating for the year out yesterday pegged the crop at only 35% good/excellent, well below the average 42% estimate from analysts. And that was also well shy of the 48% to start last year. Also…31% of the US winter wheat crop is called poor to very poor, 10% higher than last year.
USDA export inspections data showed US wheat shipments at 334,106 tonnes for the week ended April 2. That was down 13.5% from last week, and 0.38% below the same week last year. US marketing year shipments have totaled 17.73 MMT, which is up 16.6% yr/yr. USDA is estimating US wheat exports to total 24.5 MMT in 2025-26, up 9% from the previous year.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures eased lower on Monday, amid strength in the Canadian dollar and some profit taking. The Loonie gained as the American dollar slipped on Middle East war uncertainty. Iran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal on Monday, saying it wants a permanent end to the conflict, although negotiations do not appear to have broken down completely.
Chicago soybean and soyoil futures settled higher yesterday, with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil mostly stronger.
May canola inched 40 cents lower on Monday to close at $726.60/tonne, and November was down $1.10 at $732.70.
For today… canola futures are trading mostly less than $1/tonne higher currently, but there has been some see-sawing above/below the unchanged line during the overnight session. May canola is up $0.60 right now at $727.20/tonne…still tightly wound in the coiling pattern we have highlighted on the price chart in recent days/weeks. A breakout is pending, but which way? Seasonals suggest higher, but we so far lack confirmation.
Geo-politics is dominating trade talk this morning. With Iran rejecting US-generated ceasefire proposals, suggests it is Trump that has mere hours left to either surrender his position…or…instruct the US military to move ahead with a massive aerial assault of Iran s civilian infrastructure (legal?).
Other than soaring crude oil, all other markets, including the ag sector, seem a bit paralyzed at the moment, waiting to see what happens after Trump s self-imposed deadline for deal with Iran at 7 pm CT tonight.
Soyoil is finding modest support this morning its latest push to a fresh contract highs, supported by the energy sector. Crude oil s rally, fueled by Trump s escalated rhetoric against Iran, further lifted sentiment for biofuel-linked commodities. Canola is also finding price support from that influence.
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