GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are rallying $4 to $5/tonne higher to start this morning, despite a more hesitant tone of re-opening US grain markets. Canola seems to be deriving ongoing support from Friday s announced Canada-China trade agreement.
Chicago soybean futures are starting the morning a penny lower for the first trading session of the new week. US markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.
CBOT corn futures are fractionally to almost 2 cents this morning.
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AM Market Report – April 9, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain markets are in the green to start this morning….
US wheat markets are mixed this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are steady to fractionally higher, but the winter wheat markets are down 1 to 3 cents.
US grain market bulls are squeamish to start the US holiday-shortened trading week as risk aversion in the general marketplace is keen, with stock and financial markets on edge (see below).
In Other News
– Markets on edge as US-Europe tensions rise amid Trump threats to take Greenland… Global stock markets this morning have slumped and gold hit a fresh record high as tensions between the US and Europe flared over US President Donald Trump s accelerating push to take control of Greenland…a completely and unnecessarily manufactured crisis created solely by the Trump regime.
Trump’s visit to the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland this week is set to be dramatic after he shook the foundations of America s alliances with the EU and NATO, and pledged new tariffs related to his Greenland ambitions.
An increasingly unhinged Trump unleashed fresh social media rantings against European allies and threatened 200% tariffs on French wine. Trump took a swipe at French President Emmanuel Macron for rejecting an invitation to back his suspicious Board of Peace initiative (a sort of Trump-led replacement for the United Nations) and suggested the US would impose duties on France s agriculture sector. Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, threatening eight European countries with tariffs for opposing his Greenland demands.
The European Union and the United States have agreed to a trade deal last July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech in Davos today. In politics as in business, a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something. Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries beginning Feb. 1, rising to 25% in June, unless he has a deal for the purchase of Greenland.
Demonstrates once again, and again, and again…Trump cannot be trusted in any form of deal-making.
Trump s threat to impose levies on countries opposing his bid to claim authority over Greenland risks reigniting the volatility that rattled markets in the early months of his second term. The sell off deepened after European officials signaled they were unlikely to back down and were considering retaliation, reported Bloomberg. The standoff is happening at a time when risk appetite had been supported by resilient earnings and sustained investment in artificial intelligence. The markets outlook will hinge in part on the European Union s response, with the bloc in talks to impose retaliatory tariffs on 93 billion Euros of US goods, said the report.
Macron intended to request the activation of the EU s most potent trade tools…the so-called anti-coercion instrument, Bloomberg reported. German leader Friedrich Merz, however, said Monday that Germany s heavier dependence on exports means it s less willing to unleash the drastic countermeasure. The tensions are also adding to the significance of a pending US Supreme Court ruling on some of Trump s earlier tariffs, with a decision possible as soon as today.
– Carney set to speak at WEF… Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Davos to pitch Canada as an investment destination at the World Economic Forum. Carney is scheduled to meet French President Emmanuel Macron and is set to deliver a keynote talk about the emerging new world order and Canada s plans to take a pragmatic approach to dealing with it. Carney s schedule has him leaving Wednesday afternoon to head back to Canada for a cabinet retreat Thursday and Friday.
– Chinese importer buys Canadian canola… A Chinese importer bought a cargo of Canadian canola shortly after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing last week, trader sources said, boosting prospects for Canadian farmers. The Panamax cargo of about 60,000 tonnes of Canadian canola is the first since China halted imports in October, and is expected to be shipped after March.
On Friday, Carney said Canada expects China to cut tariffs on Canadian canola seed to a combined rate of about 15% by March 1 from 76% currently, part of an initial trade deal that also reduces tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
– China drops ban on Canadian beef… China is re-opening its border to Canadian beef for the first time since 2021. China halted beef imports in 2021 following an atypical case of BSE in a cow in Alberta.
“China has restored market access for Canadian beef, lifting the suspension that had been in place since December 2021,” says Canadian Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald, who accompanied Prime Minister Mark Carney to Beijing last week. “In addition, we have signed a pet food safety and sanitation requirements protocol to accelerate resumption of Canadian pet food exports to China.”
The news of beef trade resuming comes three days after Prime Minister Carney met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where the Chinese government agreed to ease tariffs on Canadian canola products, peas, and seafood in exchange for Canada loosening restrictions on Chinese electric vehicle imports. There was no mention of renewed beef market access by Carney or Canadian officials following the trip.
– Saudi Arabia buys 907,000 tonnes of wheat… Saudi Arabian state grains agency the General Food Security Authority said it bought an estimated 907,000 tonnes of hard wheat in an international tender on Monday confirming earlier reports. This was above the volume in a tender from the GFSA seeking up to 595,000 tonnes which closed on Friday. The purchase involved hard wheat with 12.5% protein content. Origins offered were the European Union, Black Sea region, North America, South America and Australia with the sellers having the option of selecting the origin supplied.
Traders said they expected the wheat to be largely sourced from the Black Sea region, especially Romania and Bulgaria, with some also likely to come from Russia.
– Russian wheat export prices up on reduced supply… Russian wheat export prices rose last week on limited supply from the Black Sea region and increased demand from importers, analysts said as they lowered their estimates for January exports due to poor weather conditions at ports. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in the second half of February was US $227.50/tonne at the end of last week, up $2.50 from January 13, according to the IKAR consultancy. The price increase is due to a shortage of Black Sea wheat in particular, and bad weather at ports.
SovEcon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $226-$228/tonne FOB, compared with $225-$227 at the end of the previous week. “Black Sea values were slightly higher this week on recovering importer demand. Domestic Egyptian prices have risen recently, making Russian wheat more competitive. A strong rouble and limited post-holiday domestic supply also provided support”, SovEcon wrote in a weekly note.
– Brazil’s soybean exports to fall 3% in 2026… Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to fall 3% in 2026 from last year, agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado said, estimating shipments from the world’s largest producer and exporter to total 105 MMT. Soybean crushing in 2026 was estimated at 60 MMT, up from 58.5 MMT last year. Total soybean supply is set to rise 5% year-on-year to 183.79 MMT, while demand is seen declining 1% to 168.42 MMT. Final ending stocks are projected to surge 241% to 15.37 MMT, from 4.51 MMT. Safras analyst Rafael Silveira said the outlook reflects expectations for another record crop and increased crushing.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 83.11 points on Friday to settle at 49,359.33, while the S&P 500 dipped 4.46 points to 6,940.01. US markets were closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Early Tuesday, the March Dow Jones Futures are plunging down 724 points.
US President Donald Trump s irrational tariff threats over Greenland are unnerving global markets as Wall Street returns from Monday s holiday, with stock futures, US treasuries and the US dollar under pressure and safe-haven gold and silver touching new all-time highs. The moves are contained thus far, but the VIX volatility index, the so-called fear gauge, has leapt to its highest point of the year, as Transatlantic tensions continue to rise.
Wall Street stock index futures dropped to one-month lows as traders returned from holiday break. TSX index futures followed sentiment lower after Canada s main stock market closed at another record high yesterday on safe-haven demand.
President Trump has showed no signs of softening his…and let s call a spade a spade…stupid demands on Tuesday, noting in a post on Truth Social that Greenland remained imperative for National and World Security and that there can be no going back . This comes after he appeared to link his desire to acquire the Arctic island to his childish failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize last year, which he blamed on Norway.
This should put even more of a spotlight on Davos in the coming days, where the World Economic Forum is entering its second day. Trump is expected to speak on Wednesday. He recently told journalists that the US would discuss his proposed acquisition of Greenland at the event. ?
Trump s threat of additional tariffs on European nations if a deal on Greenland is not reached has revived talk of the Sell America trade that emerged in the aftermath of his sweeping Liberation Day levies last April.
Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said there s hope that the escalating tensions will be self-limiting if the markets send a signal that his actions are bad for investors and the economy. But there s the risk that s not the case and we are heading for a potentially disruptive standoff between the US and EU.
The March US Dollar Index is careening 0.856 lower at 98.345. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.20 US cents.
Mar crude oil futures are up $0.37 at US $59.71/barrel. Oil prices are steady to slightly higher as investors monitored Donald Trump s threats of higher tariffs on European countries over his obsessive drive to acquire Greenland. The oil market is finding some support from better-than-expected Chinese economic data released yesterday.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to almost 2 cents/bu lower to start this morning in hesitant fashion. Bean futures posted 4 to 5 cent gains across most contracts on Friday, though the nearby March contract still declined 4.75 cents on the week. Soymeal futures are essentially flat to les than $1/ton higher this morning after moving up 80 cents to $2.40/ton on Friday, though March meal fell $13.70/ton last week. Soyoil futures are edging a very modest 3 to 12 points higher this morning after losing 18 to 36 points on Friday.
The weekly Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed spec fund traders in soybean futures slashing another 44,756 contracts from their net long position to only 12,961 contracts as of Jan. 13. Money managers are net short soyoil futures by 53,019 contracts.
US export sales data shows total US soybean commitments now at 30.637 MMT as of Jan 8, 25% below the same period in 2025. Actual accumulated export shipments are 17.984 MMT, or 42% of USDA s estimate and well behind the 60% average pace. While China is buying US beans, they are also still buying from Brazil.
Meanwhile, crop conditions generally look favorable in South America, but parts of Argentina could use rain. Brazil is on track for a record crop and until some appreciable issues pop up with that crop in Argentina, it looks like the trade s going to assume solid production. Safras e Mercado has Brazil s crop at 179.28 MMT, about a half a million more than their last guess.
Chicago corn futures are trading fractionally to almost 2 cents lower this morning after a long weekend. The corn market closed Friday s session with contracts 4 to 5 cents higher in the front months, taking back some early week losses. But March corn still lost a whopping 21 cents/bu on the week ended Friday following a very bearishly received USDA report on Jan 12.
CFTC data showed managed money in US corn futures adding 65,348 contracts to their net short position as of January 13. That took their net short to 81,774 contracts.
US wheat markets are mixed this morning…spring wheat futures flat to fractionally higher, while HRW wheat is 1 to 2 cents lower and SRW wheat is down 3 cents. The US wheat complex rallied into the long US weekend with gains across the three markets…spring wheat finished 2 to 3 cents higher across the front months on Friday, though the nearby March contract still ended 2.5 cents lower on the week.
US export sales data is fully updated through January 8, with total US wheat commitments at 20.392 MMT, which is 15% above last year. That is also 83% of USDA s export projection and slightly behind the 85% average pace. US wheat export shipments at 15.465 MMT are now 63% of the USDA estimate and ahead of the 59% average shipping pace.
Saudi Arabia purchased a total of 907,000 tonnes of non-specific origin wheat in a tender on Monday. Algeria also purchased an estimates 600,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender on Monday.
But rising world supplies continues to limit any immediate price upside across wheat markets. Minnie spring wheat futures continue to hover at 5-year lows, though light short-covering efforts are being detected. Nonetheless, heavy overhead technical resistance will continue to curb buyer interest, with low prices a likely deterrent for producers to plant as the spring season inches closer.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
With the larger US markets closed on Monday for the MLK holiday, ICE canola futures finished little changed yesterday. Canadian trade volumes were light and lacked direction. The new Canada-China tariff deal announced on Friday continued to help underpin canola, with China already reportedly buying a Canadian cargo for delivery in March.
European rapeseed was mainly lower yesterday, while Malaysian palm oil was mostly higher.
March canola slipped 50 cents on Monday to $639/tonne, and November added $1.30 to $650.40.
For today… canola futures are demonstrating some notable independent strength this morning…trading $4 to $5/tonne higher. Nearby Mar canola futures are up $4.30 this morning at $643.30/tonne, rising now above its 100-day moving average ($641). The canola market is attempting to push up through its downtrend line drawn from the June 2025 high, with next level overhead technical resistance in the consolidation range between $650 to $670 prior to the last big break, and the 200 day average at $667.
The Canada-China agreement last week provided encouraging news on the canola export front, with China tariffs set to drop from 76% to 15% on March 1. China has reportedly already purchased one vessel (panamax size), with many more deals likely to be done after the beginning of March.
Historically, Canadian canola exports to China during the March to July period have averaged 1.5 MMT in years past…but hopefully come in strong this year given the lack of business transacted during the first half of the 2025-26 marketing year. Chinese exporter buying could be substantial in the remaining months of the crop year.
Current overall Canadian canola exports this marketing year are on pace to hit 6.6 MMT, but a sudden demand increase from China could push total canola export demand to 8 to 8.5 MMT.
Also supporting our canola market this morning…a sharp rise in diesel prices, a stable CBOT soyoil market, and higher EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures.
Yellow Pea Update
Prairie cash bids for yellow pea prices will hopefully see at le3ast some modest form of gain as newly restored access to the key Chinese market pulls supply out of the domestic system and supports improved demand. The extent of any price increase will depend on how quickly export shipments resume and the volume China ultimately purchases. That said, a rapid return to pre-tariff prices is not likely in the near-term, as India s tariffs remain a headwind, global supply and stock levels continue to influence pricing, and trade flows will take time to fully re-establish after buyers sourced alternatives elsewhere.
Still, last week s Canada-China announcement brings increased confidence and predictability to the pea market, helping reduce uncertainty and the risk discount that has weighed on prices through 2025. Overall, prices should recover some lost ground into 2026, though they may initially remain below pre-tariff levels as global fundamentals continue to sort themselves out.
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