GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are trading $2 to mostly $5/tonne lower so far this morning…down for a fourth consecutive session and threatening a bearish technical breach on price charts.
Chicago soybean futures are narrowly mixed this morning…nearby contracts are now only steady to fractionally higher and off overnight session highs, while the deferreds are fractionally to a penny weaker.
Traders continue to gauge Chinese demand for US soy supplies. Bean futures are also feeling pressure from favorable South American crop weather…bolstering expectations for a record large Brazilian soy harvest.
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AM Market Report – April 9, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain markets are in the green to start this morning….
CBOT corn futures are pushing 2 to 3 cents lower this morning. Corn is seeing a mild corrective pullback following Tuesday s gains.
US wheat markets are mixed… Minnie spring wheat futures are steady to less than a penny higher, but the winter wheats are sinking 1 to 3 cents lower and continuing their present price downtrends on the daily charts.
Traders face overhead technical resistance on corn market price charts and testing underlying support levels on soybean charts. Demand remains strong for corn and wheat, supported by solid US export sales and shipments.
Chicago corn and wheat traders are concerned about tensions in the Black Sea grain export region. Traders were monitoring risks to Black Sea shipping from the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes last week against two oil tankers bound for a Russian port were followed by a drone attack on Tuesday against a Russian-flagged vessel carrying sunflower oil. Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to sever Ukraine s access to the sea.
In Other News
– Calling for bigger crops ahead of StatCan report… MarketsFarm reporter Glen Hallick writes that Statistics Canada will release its first farm survey-based production estimates for 2025 Canadian crop production on Dec. 4, with general expectations for upward revisions to most major crops from the model-based estimates in September. However, as StatCan has shown a tendency to underestimate production in its December reports, many analysts expect actual production may be revised upward in subsequent reports.
Analysts and traders said they have heard from farmers who said crop yields were larger than expected for 2025. Now they are expecting StatCan to raise its projections for a variety of crops, especially canola and wheat.
There s a pretty strong tendency for StatCan to continue to make upward revisions to their production estimates after their December numbers, said analyst Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodities.
Tony Tryhuk, trader with RBC Dominion Securities, agreed. StatCan has been known to revise their production estimates…up to two years after their publication, he said.
For example, StatCan last year initially placed 2024 canola production at 19.50 MMT, then slashed it to 17.85 MMT in December. Then this summer, the agency boosted it back up to 19.24 MMT.
The contention is the difference in data StatCan gets from its model-based reports in August and September that rely on heavily satellite imagery, versus the farmer surveys that dominate the December report.
For analyst Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital, the main reason many in the trade are expecting bigger production numbers from StatCan is the cooler-than-normal temperatures the Prairies had in July. Some of these northern crops like barley, canola and oats, do well in cool temperatures. We re going to be very surprised by the yields. When you have a cool July, those crops can yield tremendously, Klassen said.
He added this also applies to spring wheat, durum, peas, and lentils, but cautioned that the qualities of all of those crops may not be as good if July temperatures had been normal.
The analysts and traders the Western Producer Markets Desk spoke with believe this year s canola harvest ranges from 20.08 MMT tonnes to as much as 22.10 MMT. Either way, that would be the third time StatCan has recorded a canola harvest of more than 20 MMT. The largest being the 2017 crop of 21.46 MMT, followed by 20.72 MMT in 2018.
Among the other crops, in millions of tonnes with StatCan s September estimates in brackets:
All wheat: 38-38.73 MMT (36.62 MMT)
Spring wheat: 27.30-28.0 MMT (26.61 MMT)
Durum: 7.20-7.50 MMT (6.53 MMT)
Oats: 3.40-3.80 MMT (3.37 MMT)
Dry Peas: 3.80-4.0 MMT (3.56 MMT)
Lentils: 3.15-3.50 MMT (2.97 MMT)
StatCan will release its report on Thursday at 7:30 a.m. CST.
– US economist perspective on Trump tariff war… Long-time agricultural economist Dr. David Kohl, professor emeritus at Virginia Tech University, speaking at the 2025 American Bankers Association Ag Bankers Conference, says the full effect of the Trump administration s use of tariffs won t be felt for a few years. These tariffs aren t agreements, and I m being very blunt about it, they re just temporary subscriptions, and they can be changed on a tweet, he said. This is going to be evolving. What we re doing is we re losing market share. Look at soybeans. Look at corn. The global South has become more competitive.
While the erosion of market share hurts demand, Kohl says the tariffs also have other impacts. Whether it was friend or foe, it s how we delivered those tariffs that have really hurt long-term relationships, he noted. And then if we import fertilizer or technology, those tariffs increase the capital investment and the cost of production.
Kohl says the added costs and uncertainty come at a time when many grain farmers are struggling to break even. The good managers are still making money, or if you re in the grain industry, hitting break-even. He says, But it requires what we call the boring basics. Knowing the cost of production, having a marketing and risk management program and executing it, monitoring your cash flows, and having a good, solid relationship with your lender.
– Can China still meet US soybean purchase pledge for this year?… Several weeks ago, the Trump administration claimed they made a deal with China…a deal not yet signed or even acknowledged by Beijing…promising China would book at least 12 MMT of US soybeans this year, to be followed by additional purchases of at least 25 MMT annually over the next three years. Again, China has not officially confirmed that target.
With only weeks left in calendar year 2025, time is tight in getting that first 12 MMT sold. According to Bloomberg calculations based on USDA data, Chinese buyers have booked roughly 3 MMT…with USDA so far only confirming 2.25 MMT since Oct 30…either way, still far short of the target.
To meet that goal, they would have to book the remaining volumes over less than a month. The unpredictable buying pace has stoked concern that China may be hampered by bureaucratic and logistical hurdles, even if it did want to honor its apparent commitment said the Bloomberg report.
The fact that it doesn t make commercial sense for buyers to purchase US soybeans will naturally slow down the pace of purchasing, said Even Pay, director at Beijing-based advisory firm Trivium China, adding that the so far phantom 12 MMT pledge now looked all but out of reach. In early November that target was ambitious, requiring buyers to book just over 1 MMT each week for the rest of the year. But that didn t eventuate, and hitting the target now would require China to be booking over 2 MMT, including the week of Christmas, which seems close to impossible, she said.
Still, Bloomberg reported traders expected non-commercial buyers to keep taking shipments. Chinese state-owned firms, mainly COFCO, will continue to account for most purchases for this year, with some volumes expected to go into state reserves, said the traders. The bookings would likely be placed before the end of this year, in line with the deal, though vessels could be loaded in early 2026, even in the next crop year for US beans, they said.
With those mechanisms, the total could surpass 12 MMT, the traders said…even if commercial crushers continue to rely heavily on cheaper Brazil soy supply. Can the Trump targets be met? I ll believe it when I see it.
– US to announce cash handout for farmers next week… US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday that the Trump administration will announce a bridge payment for American farmers next week that is designed to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized. US Farm groups and Republican lawmakers have pushed the administration to issue aid as farmers face low crop prices and billions in lost soybean sales to China during tense trade talks between the two countries.
“We do have a bridge payment. We’ll be announcing with you next week,” Rollins told Trump at a cabinet meeting at the White House. Trump’s spending bill known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill” expanded some farm supports but farm groups say growers need additional money now to support planting for the next crop year. The US government is already expected to spend more than $40 billion on payments to farmers in 2025, the second-highest amount since 1933, according to USDA data, fueled by ad-hoc disaster and economic aid.
– Trump administration urges US Supreme Court to hear Bayer appeal of Roundup lawsuits... The Trump administration has urged the US Supreme Court to take up Bayer AG’s appeal targeting thousands of lawsuits blaming its Roundup weedkiller for causing cancer. The US solicitor general recommended that the high court agree to hear Bayer’s challenge to a Missouri jury verdict over Roundup on the grounds some of the claims were pre-empted by federal law.
Bayer executives are hoping to knock out thousands of Roundup cases that include failure-to-warn claims, with a positive Supreme Court outcome potentially resolving existing and future glyphosate cases. Bayer shares surged on the news, the most in more than two decades, Bloomberg reported.
The Roundup issue has plagued the German conglomerate since the takeover of Monsanto in 2018. The company already has paid more than $10 billion in verdicts and settlements over the herbicide and its active ingredient, glyphosate.
– Richardson completes acquisition of pasta business… Canadian agribusiness and food processor Richardson International Ltd. has closed its $375 million acquisition of the 8th Avenue Food & Provisions Inc. pasta business from Post Holdings Inc. Winnipeg-based Richardson said the deal, announced in late August and including the assumption of about $80 million in leaseback financial liabilities, brings a durum mill, three pasta manufacturing sites and the Ronzoni pasta brand to its US arm, Richardson (US) Holdings Ltd.
The company said the operations build on its vertically integrated network across Canada and the United States. The pasta facilities are located in Carrington, North Dakota, US (durum milling and pasta production); New Hope, Minnesota, US (pasta production); and Winchester, Virginia, US (pasta production). Richardson said the addition of 8th Avenue s operations bolsters its integrated model, which spans sourcing and milling of durum wheat to production of semolina and finished pasta, and grows its presence across retail, private label, foodservice and ingredient channels. The company added that it will continue to seek innovation and growth opportunities in the pasta market.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average regained 185.13 points on Tuesday to settle at 47,474.46, while the S&P 500 gained 16.74 points to 6,829.37. Early Wednesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 83 points.
Global stock markets were on firmer footing overnight as an expected interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve next week improved market sentiment. But Wall Street stock index futures made a sudden dip lower about an hour ago after payrolls processor ADP reported that private US payrolls (jobs) surprisingly declined by 32,000 in November. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a gain of 40,000 for the month.
Despite the tough reading on the economy, traders are likely betting that the private US job losses for the month could clinch a Fed rate cut at its last meeting of the year next week.
Investors are gauging the possibility of year-end rally, as December trading historically bodes well for stocks and because November was such a downbeat month as profit-taking trimmed valuations for some high-flying names.
The December US Dollar Index is down 0.371 at 98.925. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.72 US cents.
Jan crude oil futures are up $0.40 at US $59.04/barrel. Oil prices are on the rise, reversing earlier losses, as investors believe Russia-Ukraine peace talks are unlikely to lead to the removal of sanctions on Russian crude, though gains were limited by concerns about an overall supply surplus.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean future are trading narrowly mixed so far this morning…pulling back from modest overnight gains. Beans futures are currently steady to fractionally higher on the front month contracts, but fractionally to a penny weaker on the deferreds. Bean futures faced weakness on Tuesday, with contracts closing down 2 to 3 cents. Beware…head and shoulders top formation on soybean price charts are still being threatened at this time.
Soymeal futures are edging $1/ton or less higher this morning after giving up $1 to $3/ton on Tuesday. Soyoil futures 25 to 30 points lower right now, essentially giving back yesterday s gains…though still trending higher over the past week and testing overhead resistance at 53.00 US cents/lbs on the nearby Mar contract.
Outside of last week s limited Chinese buying, daily flash export sale announcements from the USDA gone quiet again. It s going to take a pretty and sudden big buying spree by Beijing to reach the Trump targeted 12 MMT of US soybeans sold by the end of 2025. The trade deal framework reached between the US and China at the end of October has yet to even be signed. For what it s worth, the talk about that framework being signed sometime early this month has evaporated.
Traders are also monitoring planting and early crop development conditions in South America, which generally look favorable.
The USDA s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out on Dec 9, with CONAB s outlook for Brazil set for the 11th.
Chicago corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents lower this morning. The corn market posted gains of 4 to 5 cents on Tuesday, gaining some bullish steam after a weaker start. Support yesterday came from Russia threatening to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea if their attacks on Russian linked vessels continue.
Mar corn futures are down 3 cents early Wednesday at $4.47/bu. Technically, the broad upward price channel going back to mid-August remains intact. Immediate overhead chart resistance level for March corn is $4.50, right at Tuesday’s close…along with the 200-day day average at $4.48.
Traders will begin to focus on next week’s USDA supply/demand report. US corn usage could be raised, while ending stocks estimates are lowered from 2.15 billion bu. Maybe? Export demand for US corn has been strong during the first quarter of the US marketing year, but that might be offset by concerns about US livestock feed usage given light cattle numbers.
US wheat markets are mixed this morning…Minnie spring wheat futures are trying to hang on to fractional gains, while the winter wheats are sliding 1 to 3 cents lower. The US wheat complex posted strength at Tuesday s close…spring wheat finishing 4 to 5 cents higher. Support came from threats from Russia to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea if their attacks on Russian linked vessels continue.
Most of the US winter wheat crop has now gone dormant, with traders watching harvest activity in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.
The lack of deal to end Russia s war on Ukraine and the potential impact on shipping into and out of the Black Sea is a background support factor.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures ended lower for the fourth straight session on Tuesday, as the market awaits Statistics Canada updated 2025 crop production estimates on Thursday.
The StatCan crop production report, which will be released at 7:30 am CST, will be based on a survey of farmers. Previous reports, released in August and September, were model-based estimates with the September report putting the 2025 Canadian crop at 20.02 MMT. Most traders and analysts are expecting that number to be revised higher on Thursday.
Crude oil was lower yesterday, but Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil were all higher.
But January canola dropped $2.40 on Tuesday to close at $644.80/tonne, and November fell $2.50 to $658.40.
For today… canola futures are backsliding $2 to mostly $5/tonne lower this morning…down for a fourth consecutive session and threatening to drop through the underlying chart support line drawn off the early October low. Jan canola futures are down $5.10 right now at $639.70/tonne…20-day average above at $647 and 50-day just below at $637.
Traders are wary ahead of Thursday s StatCan production report (7:30 am CT release tomorrow)…fearing a bearish report. The trade is expecting StatCan to raise its 2025 canola production estimate…final report of the season…to 21 MMT compared to the agency s September estimate of 20.03 MMT. Upper end of trade guesstimates top 22.1 MMT. Anything in that territory or higher would be bearish prices, especially given the lack of China buying. The low of the trade guessing range is unchanged from September.
On related outside markets…CBOT soyoil is weaker this morning, with overnight soybean gains now fading to a steady to slightly weaker market. European rapeseed is quietly lower, still trading well within a relatively tight range established over the past month. Malaysian palm oil is barely lower thanks to a seasonally slow demand period.
Lentil Market Update
StatCan in September estimated 2025 Canadian lentil production at 2.972 MMT, and will update its forecast of crop output on Thursday (Dec 4). Trade ideas are that the lentil number will be revised higher in that next report…perhaps 3.3 MMT. Last year was 2.4 MMT, so a fairly significant year-to-year increase. Breaking down the green and red lentil ratio…we expected to see somewhere between 1.7 and 1.8 MMT for red lentils (1.7 MMT in 2024), probably over 1.1 MMT of large and medium greens, and another 0.5 MMT of small greens. Strong green lentil prices over the past couple of years expanded 2025 acres both in Canada and the US. Foreign buyers are acutely aware of the size of the North American lentil crop.
Overall Canadian supply, including some of the carry-in, will be somewhere between 3.6-4 MMT for this year. Fairly amply supplied. We did have some good fall sales, but they’re quite hard to track.
Minus off a 2025-26 lentil export program of 2.1-2.2 MMT (depends on India and Turkey demand), 0.125 MMT or so on domestic seed use and domestic processing use of between 0.300-0.340 MMT…that would put marketing year-end carryout somewhere around a fairly burdensome 1.1 to 1.3 MMT
The red lentil market will be heavily influenced by what Australia produces…currently being harvested but has the produced to equal Canadian output.
As mentioned yesterday for peas, larger supply has weighed on prices, but there will be up/down fluctuations through the marketing year. Since the start of 2025, red lentil pricing is down about 40%…currently seen around 21-22 cents/lbs spot…maybe as high as 23 cents for Feb delivery. That s a big hit. For large greens…trading at 25 to 27 cents…they re down 50%. And again unfortunately, production costs are not coming down anywhere near the same rate.
Lentil demand usually loses some momentum at this point in the year, so we may be slipping into the familiar December lull. The best way to describe the current market is bottom-feeding.
I d be inclined to wait 2-3 moths for the next marketing opportunity bus to come around. Not looking for anything specific…mostly waiting for some problem to develop that hurts some growing crop somewhere.
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