None of the 12 member countries have ratified the deal, but if the United States turns it down, the entire agreement could fail, the CCA foreign trade committee was told during the Canada Beef Industry conference held in Calgary Aug. 9-11.

“It is a carefully constructed 12 party agreement and if one of the 12 were to decide not to be a member, I think that would certainly change the math for a whole lot of people,” said Doug Forsyth, executive director for Agriculture Canada and Canada’s chief agriculture negotiator.

Canada joined negotiations in 2012 to gain additional access to the lucrative Japanese beef market. Japan has agreed to gradually reduce beef tariffs from 38 percent to nine percent for all participants.

“Japan will probably pass it this October, but it is a question mark as to what is going to happen in Washington. It doesn’t look promising, if you listen to some of the election rhetoric,” said John Masswohl of the CCA.

Australia has an agreement with Japan and receives better access with lower tariffs than Canada.

Last year, Canada exported about $100 million worth of beef to Japan but paid nearly $40 million in tariffs, said Masswohl.

Canada needs to have another plan ready, say CCA members.

“Just sitting back and waiting until an opportunity presents itself instead of being prepared for it in my mind is dropping the ball,” said Dennis Laycraft, executive vice-president of the CCA.

Japan is not interested in another deal at this time.

“The focus for now is for the TPP for Japan and Canada. That is Plan A. Plan B is speculative right now, notwithstanding what is going on in the United States,” said Forsyth.

Canada went through seven rounds of talks with Japan to build a bilateral agreement, but when the TPP was proposed that was set aside.

Members of the U.S. based National Cattlemen’s Beef Association also want the deal signed.

“Trade agreements are never easy and they are never popular, but they are very economically important. In absence of trade agreements, realistically, we would degrade into chaos,” said NCBA president Tracy Brunner at the meeting.

Japan is seen as a key market that takes many meat products not popular in North America.

If the Japanese trade is lost, those products will have to be sold domestically, said Kent Bacus of the NCBA.

The head of corporate affairs for JBS USA said the deal is critical for North American beef producers and exporters.

“We must have access for these products. The demand long term is not going to be in Canada, it is going to be elsewhere. We need to have the opportunity to deliver quality Canadian product all around the world,” said Cameron Bruit.

Such a large agreement could also pressure China to allow more trade even though it is not a member of the TPP. Canada is allowed to ship frozen boneless beef but U.S. beef does not have access to China.

“TPP will allow us to put significant pressure on China to be responsible traders in the marketplace,” Bruit said at the beef conference, which was attended by more than 650 people.

He is confident the anti trade rhetoric will abate after the presidential election in November.

However, Douglas Porter, chief economist of the Bank of Montreal, is pessimistic.

“I happen to believe that the TPP is dead. There is a slight chance they might get it done in the lame duck session, but based on what both candidates have said it is very tough to see that approved,” said Porter.

Republican candidate Donald Trump is openly anti-trade and some of what he says is problematic for the markets, said Porter.

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has also said she does not favour the agreement as a concession to left-wing party supporters.

#tpp Tweets

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UPDATED: 1350 CST – October 15, 2015 (TPP background story links can be found further below on this page)

TPP results may save Lantic sugar plant from closure

– A deal reached during the recent Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks appears to have gained more U.S. market access for Canadian beet sugar.

Barley sector pleased with TPP

– The head of the Barley Council of Canada says there is no doubt the Canadian barley industry will realize significant benefits from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

Beef, pork producers cheer outcome of TPP agreement

– Doug Gillespie didn’t join millions of others in following the live public announcement that Canada and 11 other nations had successfully completed the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. However, he was delighted when he returned to his house and discovered the deal was done.

TPP: resetting the trade table

– They might have been a bit grudging about it, but most Canadian dairy farmers breathed sighs of relief when the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal was announced. Rather than being scrapped or crippled as feared by many, the supply management system was only crimped.

Grain, oilseed sectors cheer

– Farmers, processors and exporters in Canada’s grains and oilseeds sector could see huge financial benefits — potentially worth more than a billion dollars a year — from the implementation of Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, say TPP supporters.

TPP trade deal reached, dairy compensation included

– A TPP deal has been made. Canada has announced a $4.3 billion package of programs and compensation to help supply-managed producers as the Trans-Pacific Partnership is implemented.

Canada says Pacific trade deal offers limited access to dairy market

– OTTAWA, Oct 5 (Reuters) – Canada said on Monday that a major trade deal agreed by 12 Pacific nations would only allow limited access to protected Canadian domestic dairy and poultry markets, a politically sensitive issue ahead of the Oct. 19 election.

TPP benefits won’t be seen overnight

– At the onset of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, most indications are that it will likely help grow Canadian agriculture markets.

Opposition on attack as Liberals capitalize on trade agreement

– The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal has been finalized in Atlanta after years of negotiations, delays and an all night bartering session. Details were still emerging about the proposed trade at the time of writing.

Sky not falling with TPP deal

– If you look hard enough, will you find a dead rat in Canada’s version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal? Maybe, but the carcass doesn’t appear to be in the farming sector.

Trans-Pacific Partnership deal could tip election

– Rather than being an Achilles heel for the Conservatives, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement appears to be a positive for prime minister Stephen Harper as the country heads into the home stretch of a long election campaign.

Online makes fast-break play on TPP deal

– There’s nothing like working at a newspaper when “breaking news” occurs. For journalists, it’s a little like overtime in a big hockey game — the pressure’s on and you want to do the best you can to help your team win.

Opposition uses TPP deal as political fodder

– When the 12 country Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement was announced, it instantly became the dominant talking point on the federal election campaign trail.

Older WP stories on TPP:

After five years of negotiations, Pacific trade talks near deal

– ATLANTA, Oct 4 (Reuters) – A dozen Pacific nations closed in on a sweeping free trade pact on Sunday in Atlanta after a breakthrough over how long a monopoly pharmaceutical companies should be given on new biotech drugs.

Supply managed sectors fight back as TPP rhetoric heats up

– Canadian dairy, poultry and egg farmers are fighting back against what they call an “increasing amount of rhetoric and misinformation” surrounding the country’s supply managed agricultural industries.

Canada to pay farmers for any losses under trade deal – minister

– OTTAWA — Federal agriculture minister Gerry Ritz maintains that if the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal is signed this week supply managed sectors will be protected.

Canadian farm groups watching Trans Pacific meetings this week

– WINNIPEG, September 28 – Trans Pacific Partnership discussions are once again underway, spurring farming groups into action to rally up support for their causes.

New Zealand dairy farmers say subsidy cuts are survivable — Canadians skeptical

– ACTON VALE, Quebec/WASHINGTON/WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Aug 9 (Reuters) – New Zealand dairy farmers have a message for their Canadian counterparts, who worry that a Pacific trade deal will throw them on the mercy of world markets and devastate their industry: It’s not so bad.
But heavily protected Canadian farmers have reason for skepticism.

Canadian ranchers look to triple trade with Japan

– WINNIPEG — Canadian beef exports to Japan could double or even triple if Canada is successful in signing onto the Trans-Pacific Partnership, according to an industry official.

TPP fails on dairy, auto, drugs

– LAHAINA, Hawaii, July 31 (Reuters) – Pacific Rim trade ministers failed to clinch a deal on Friday to free up trade between a dozen nations after a dispute flared up over auto trade between Japan and North America, New Zealand dug in over dairy trade and no agreement was reached on monopoly periods for next-generation drugs.

Ag ministers pledge support for supply management

– CHARLOTTETOWN, P.E.I. — Canada’s agriculture ministers say they support expanded trade opportunities but not at the expense of supply management.

TPP has great potential for some industries

– Most of the Canadian news coverage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement has focused on the potential threat to Canada’s supply managed dairy and poultry sectors, but the Canola Council of Canada feels the 12-country Asia-Pacific trade pact could increase exports of Canadian canola products by up to $780 million per year.

Canada has announced a $4.3 billion package of programs and compensation to help supply-managed producers as the Trans-Pacific Partnership is implemented.

The deal, announced this morning, gives 3.25 percent market access for dairy, 2.3 percent access for eggs, 2.1 percent for broiler chicken, two percent for turkey, and 1.5 percent for broiler hatching eggs.

An Income Guarantee Program will provide 100 percent income protection to producers for 10 years once the deal comes into effect, the government said in a news release.

Support will continue “on a tapered basis” for the next five years, and the total program is worth $2.4 billion.

The Quota Value Guarantee Program will protect producers against declining quota value when they sell quota after the TPP is implemented. There is $1.5 billion available in this program, which will be in place for 10 years and operate on a demand-driven basis.

The government also announced a $450-million program for processor modernization to help them compete under the terms of the TPP. And, a market development initiative will help supply-managed groups promote and market their products. This program will be funded by an additional $15 million in the AgriMarketing Program.

The federal government also said it would beef up anti-circumvention programs at the border. Measures will include requiring certificationf or spent fowl, preventing importers from circumventing quotas by adding sauce packages to chicken products, and excluding supply-managed products from the federal Duties Relief Program.

Cheese compositional standards have been maintained.

Contact karen.briere@producer.com

Officials said the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) would offer up just 3.25 percent of the Canadian dairy market and around 2 percent of the poultry market over five years.

Farmers said during the negotiations they could be crippled if Canada gave up too much of its supply management system, which imposes strict production quotas and export tariffs to keep domestic dairy and poultry prices high.

Canada’s ruling Conservatives, locked in a tight election race, rely heavily on the rural vote. The main opposition New Democrats say if they form the next government, they will not feel bound by the terms of TPP.

Ottawa will also make available a total of C$4.3 billion ($3.28 billion) over 15 years to compensate dairy and poultry farmers for losses they might suffer under TPP and an earlier free trade deal negotiated with the European Union.

“Despite significant and broad demands from several of our TPP negotiating partners, Canada has only offered limited new access for supply-managed products,” the Canadian government said in a statement.

Canada’s International Trade Minister Ed Fast said TPP preserves the main pillars of the supply-managed system, namely controls over imports, prices and supply.

The deal will mean lost revenue, Dairy Farmers of Canada said in a statement. But the politically influential group said losses are mitigated by a “fair compensation package.”

“We have come a long way from the threat of eliminating supply management,” Dairy Farmers President Wally Smith said.

The deal is popular with farmers who sell beef, pork, wheat and canola on the open market to countries such as Japan.

“Canada simply could not have afforded to have been left out of this agreement,” said Cam Dahl, president of Cereals Canada.

Another area of contention is rules of origin for autos sold in Canada. Under TPP, the total cost of a vehicle sold in Canada must contain 45 percent of content from TPP nations.

Canada, along with Mexico and the United States, is a member of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The equivalent NAFTA rule of origin for cars sold in Canada is 62.5 percent.

The articles clearly indicate that agriculture minister Gerry Ritz is holding his ground. I thank you, minister, on behalf of all Canadian dairy farmers.

Minister Ritz, if you feel alone against the U.S., know that millions of Canadians, as well as more than 12,000 dairy farm families who contributed $18.9 billion to Canada’s gross domestic product, generated $3.6 billion in tax revenue and sustained 215,000 jobs in Canada in 2013, are proud of the system we built. If being Canadian means being different, so be it.

Ritz is not the only minister participating in the TPP talks.

International trade minister Ed Fast, who has been participating from the start, also has the country’s best interest at heart. He is not the agriculture minister, but he has many dairy farmers in his riding who have conveyed how changes to the dairy supply management system or the industry’s ability to generate economic wealth would ultimately hurt our economy, whether it be production, processing and related economic activity.

Ritz and Fast, along with prime minister Stephen Harper, are on record supporting and defending supply management, but pundits and observers are still heavily speculating on Canada’s position in the TPP trade negotiations.

Canada’s parliamentarians have repeatedly voted unanimously to support and defend our supply management system.

The government has strong grounds to stand on in front of the world. Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. can bad mouth our system if it makes them feel good and strong about their own system and redirects attention from their own sensitivities.

At the end of the day, supply management is still what is best for Canada and what allows Canadians to trust the products they buy and consume.

We understand the importance of trade agreements for Canada, and our government has concluded many without selling out what makes Canada, Canada. In fact, all trade agreements that Canada is a party to have been signed while maintaining supply management.

Our Canadian TPP negotiators should reflect on past experiences to guide them in the process.

Some may argue that sacrificing supply management to please international partners makes sense from a trade policy perspective, but let’s keep in mind the important facts: there is more to our country than trade. There is an industry at risk, jobs at risk and quality products at risk for all Canadians.

Our industry is targeted by TPP foreign negotiators, but we believe a deal can be shaped to meet the government’s objectives while supporting Canadian dairy farmers and our rural communities.

I am confident that Ritz and the Canadian government will continue to defend and support our system with no negative impact on the dairy industry, as in past trade negotiations.

Wally Smith is president of Dairy Farmers of Canada