The record high cattle and beef prices have been with us for a while now, and the reason is well known.

It is mostly a weather story, with dry pastures in much of North America a few years ago causing massive liquidation that has push herd numbers down to multi-decade lows.

The question now is when will herd rebuilding start.

The Canadian and American markets are entwined, so it is useful to look at American data as well as Canadian.

In the United States, the contraction cycle began in 2015 and peaked in 2019. Last year, the contraction slowed and the total cattle inventory fell by less than one per cent.

Pastures have been recovering, but feeder cattle prices were so high that producers were still selling to repair their financial position.

However, that might be changing.

The number of U.S. heifers retained for beef cow replacement increased by one per cent last year, which might signal the start of herd expansion.

If more heifers are retained as expected, that will reduce the slaughter population, putting more upward pressure on fed cattle prices this summer

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects cow slaughter will decline this year, resulting in more breeding females, which might lead to a larger calf crop.

However, it will likely take years for the herd to rebuild enough to start to lower beef prices.

While the cattle population data tells much of the story, that is not all.

Weight is also a factor in how much meat is produced, and weights were up last year.

The total number of cattle slaughtered in the U.S. last year was 29.79 million head, down six per cent from the previous year and the lowest since 2015, according to USDA data.

On average, the live weight of commercially slaughtered cattle in 2025 in the U.S. was up 33 pounds, or two percent, to 1,432 lb.

The result was that total beef production was 26 billion lb., down only four percent from the previous year.

It is a similar story in Canada.

Data from the Canadian Beef Grading Agency shows total cattle slaughter at federally inspected plants last year at 2.81 million, down almost six per cent.

I couldn’t find live weights for Canada, but I did find carcass weights. For the year they were 915.2 lb., up almost five lb.

Total Canadian beef production was about 2.46 billion lb., down five percent, according to Canfax.

It is interesting to note that Canadian feeders are keeping their cattle to even heavier weights so far this year.

Canfax says that in the first six weeks, carcass weights in Western Canada were 975 lb., 37 lb. heavier than in the same period last year.

Fed cattle prices in Alberta in mid-February climbed back up to the record they hit in September last year, indicating the number of market-ready cattle is extremely tight.

In the U.S., the Reuters news service reports packers are losing a lot of money on each animal processed, and there is speculation they might try to scale back slaughter to pressure cattle lower and beef higher to narrow their losses.

Since I was diving into a lot of statistics for this column I looked up ground beef prices in the U.S. and Canada. While steak might seem a special meal, hamburger is considered standard fare.

This is not a grocery store comparison. Rather, it is consumer price data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Canada.

I compared December 2025 to January 2021, which is when general food inflation really started to take off.

The Bureau of Labor says that on average, a pound of hamburger cost US$6.69, up 69 per cent from January 2021.

Statistics Canada said a kilogram of hamburger cost C$15.54, or $7.06 per lb., up 64 per cent over the same period.

So, the price increases have been similar on both sides of the border.

Even as consumers complain about such prices, it is also shocking that they are not forgoing beef.

The USDA says that beef per capita disappearance, a calculation of how much each American eats per year, was 59.2 lb. in 2025, up slightly from 50.1 lb. the previous year.

It forecasts that in 2026, it will rise again to 59.5 lb.

Pork is cheaper than beef, but its per capita disappearance fell in 2025 to 49.3 lb. from 49.9 lb. in 2024.

Turkey also dipped to 13.2 lb., down from 13.8 lb.

However, there was a chicken in every pot, continuing the long-term rise in that meat.

Chicken rose to 102.9 lb., up from 101.1 lb. in 2024.

His trade policies, coloured by personal likes and dislikes involving South America’s two largest beef exporters, is making America’s problems with high beef prices worse.

He had a bright idea recently that he could help American consumers angry with sky high beef prices and at the same time help out his pal, Argentine president Javier Milei, whose country’s economy is big trouble.

He told a news conference Oct. 16 that he was working to lower beef prices.

”We did something, we worked our magic.”

A couple of days later he popped the rabbit out of his hat, saying the United States would buy beef from Argentina, noting he likes Milei, whose political persona is similar to Trump’s, and “if we buy some beef — now, I’m not talking about that much — from Argentina, it would help Argentina, which we consider a very good country.”

The response from America’s beef producers was swift and negative with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association noting many concerns.

“This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” said NCBA chief executive officer Colin Woodall.

The NCBA urged the president to stay out of the issue and let the market do its job to restore equilibrium to the beef supply chain.

The issue with that is it will likely take years for the cattle industry to rebuild to a point where it produces enough beef to lower prices.

The situation in the American and Canadian cattle industries is similar.

Multiple years of dry weather in the western half of the continent hurt pastures. Feedgrain prices and farm input prices soared with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and took years to moderate. The ranching community leans toward the older end of the spectrum.

All of this caused producers to reduce the size of their herds.

The Canadian beef cow herd as of July 1 grew fractionally from the year before but otherwise is still the smallest since 1988.

The U.S. beef herd is the smallest since 1973.

Fed and feeder prices on the Chicago futures markets are at record highs, as are beef prices in the grocery stores and restaurants.

Cattle are larger and produce more beef per head than in the past, partly making up for the reduced numbers, but even then, beef production is down.

In Canada, production so far this year is down five per cent.

American beef production is expected to be down 4.3 percent this year.

With such a deficit in domestic production, it is no surprise that beef exports from each nation are down and imports are up.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects beef imports to rise 15.7 per cent this year, but Trump is making imports more expensive.

Although he promotes imports of Argentine beef, he put high tariffs on Brazilian beef.

The tariff started at 26.4 per cent but rose to 50 percent in August.

The boost was because Trump didn’t like it that Brazil’s supreme court was about to try another of his friends, the former strongman president Jair Bolsonaro.

Subsequently, Bolsonaro was convicted and sentenced to 27 years for plotting a coup to prevent current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from taking office after he won the 2022 election.

Earlier in the year, Brazil had become the leading source of beef imports into the U.S.

From January to July, imports of Brazilian beef soared to 810 million pounds, up 91 per cent from the previous year.

The tariff slashed that trade.

Brazil’s government statistics show beef exports to the U.S. in September fell 41 per cent compared to the pervious year. Instead, the beef went to China.

Trump also has a 10 per cent tariff on its second largest source of beef imports, Australia.

That did not stop Australia from increasing beef exports to the U.S., which in the January to July period climbed 35 per cent to 719.4 million lb.

The situation is made worse because an outbreak of screwworm in Mexican cattle caused the U.S. to suspend live cattle imports.

Normally, about 1.2 million Mexican cattle are shipped annually to the U.S. for feeding and slaughter.

Even if the U.S. imports Argentine beef, the amount available wouldn’t lower beef prices.

The only solution is the slow process of retaining more heifers, keeping them to maturity, breeding them and waiting for them to give birth and then growing the calf to slaughter weight.

And in that period, fewer heifers will be slaughtered, reducing beef production and keeping retail prices high.

Given that situation, high tariffs on beef imports only make the consumer’s situation worse.

Beef prices are still enjoying highs mid-way through 2024.

“It’s good dollars in our pockets,” said Perillat, who is also a cattle producer. “But you always want to have more, or you want to keep more of it.”

More deliberate cattle marketing can help pad the producer’s bottom line, he said.

Perillat was speaking at a June field day at the University of Saskatchewan’s Livestock and Forage Centre of Excellence.

“When you’re marketing calves, do you know how your calves performed?” he asked. “Do you know how they perform down the supply chain?

“Because if you don’t know any of that, all you’re doing is selling your calves, you’re just giving them to the highest bidder. That’s not marketing your cattle or actually trying to extract the value that they bring to the next buyer.”

A producer can get a leg up as a seller by knowing their feed conversion rate, dressing percentage and the overall health of their cattle. At the same time, they don’t have to drown themselves in data. Each aspect is an independent variable, Perillat said, and getting a better handle on even one of those aspects can improve cost-to-profit ratios.

Good feed conversion can also be a selling point. If a farm produces cattle that are more efficient at turning feed to gain, those animals should be more attractive to anyone looking to finish that animal, he said.

Producers can often get that information from buyers or feedlots where they have taken their cattle in the past. Perillat said those buyers are often willing to share data because it’s in their interests to have producers optimize livestock.

Buyers typically assume an average feed efficiency of 6.5 or seven pounds of dry matter to one pound of gain. But if the producer knows a specific animal converts feed better, there’s a better chance that animal will make money for the buyer.

“You should be getting paid more for those good calves,” Perillat said. “Often that doesn’t happen in the supply chain, but you’re never going to get there if you don’t know how your calves do and if you don’t set them up properly.”

More information also helps when selling via electronic means.

“There are brokers, and those who are selling electronically and following those cattle through, who can give a lot of insight into these kinds of deals,” Perillat said.

“We’ve seen guys who did this and follow through, or (who) went and did ranch groups. Then the next year they were getting bids 10, 12 cents higher from the guy who bought their cattle last year, whereas everybody else is bidding average, because the buyer knew (the cattle) performed well.”

Electronic markets can also help producers take advantage of current market values, he noted. They can negotiate for fall delivery at current prices. Robust marketing and having key information available can grease the wheels of those deals.

Producers should also know the market. Perillat urged them to keep abreast of the current cattle market and what drives it. Feed conversion rate, dressing percentage and overall health are important statistics, but the agribusiness specialist also suggested farmers consider the following:

• Canadian dollar and U.S. market: Canadian producers can partially thank the U.S. market for good calf prices. The exchange rate currently makes Canadian cattle attractive. That said, the industry should watch for swings in the currency exchange, which will affect prices and the futures market.

“If the packing plant offered the feedlot a zero basis … and (if) the dollar drops — everything else stays the same — they can pay you eight cents more and still have the same amount of profit in that calf,” Perillat said.

If the Canadian dollar rises, that same buyer has to pay the farmer less to get the same margin.

Elections are also coming in the U.S., he noted, bringing political uncertainties.

• Feed prices: When the feed market fluctuates, so does the cattle market. Perillat pointed to barley price increases during the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing havoc on calf prices. In Lethbridge, where he farms, barley prices reached $9.50 a bushel at their peak.

“If barley prices go up a buck a bushel, the price of your calves go down 20 cents a pound,” he said. “We’re down to $6.50 (a bushel) now. There’s close to 60 cents of this calf market (that) is feed cost.”

• Interest rates: High interest rates should be factored into bottom line calculations. They are rarely thought of, Perillat said, but they do weigh into the cost of production.

“On some of these calves, with our yearlings especially, it’s over 60 cents per head per day to finance your calves,” he said.

When interest is figured in the cost-to-gain calculation for backgrounding calves, he suggests it costs the producer around $1.80 per head per day.