Australia imposed import restrictions on Canadian beef in 2003, following the discovery of Canada’s first domestic case of mad cow disease. It lifted a similar ban on U.S. beef imports last week.

Canada’s government celebrated the long-awaited resumption of access to the Australian market.

“With restored access to Australia, a key market in the Indo-Pacific, we can unlock more opportunities for our producers to deliver the top-quality beef we’re known for,” said federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald.

Analysts are skeptical about how much North American beef can be exported to Australia because the U.S. has a major deficit and is importing beef from Australia, Canada and other suppliers.

“U.S. beef is still very highly priced compared to Australian beef,” said Resilient Capital analyst Jerry Klassen.

“North American beef is really the highest-priced in the world.”

The Canadian Cattle Association, which represents farmers and feedlots that raise cattle, celebrated the Australian market reopening, saying in a news release it was one of the last remaining countries to have maintained mad cow disease restrictions on Canadian beef.

Canada’s cattle ranchers were devastated by the 2003 restrictions placed upon Canadian beef exports because much of the country’s beef production is exported, especially to the U.S.

—Reporting by David Ljunggren and Ed White

Albert Eringfeld, vice-president of export market development for Canada Beef, said 2022 was a record and and 2024 will be higher at more than $7 billion.

The volume of live cattle and beef has been trending upward as well.

Eringfeld said in 2024 about 46 per cent of all beef slaughtered in Canada left the country.

The top markets are the United States, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Vietnam, followed by others in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East.

“There’s actually 56 different countries in 2023 where Canadian beef was exported,” he said during the Saskatchewan Beef Industry Conference.

The European market provides the highest value per kilogram but with little volume. This is followed by Hong Kong, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and then the U.S.

Eringfeld said the U.S. market has been stable in the last five years and worth about $4 billion. Canada had a 22 per cent market share of U.S. imports last year, a small decline from the previous year. More than 90 per cent is shipped as fresh chilled beef and most is boneless.

“Ground beef is the largest segment of Canadian beef exports to the U.S.,” Eringfeld said. “Other cuts used in grinding or for the production of thin meats, especially for the Hispanic market, coming from the chuck and hip, are also very popular.”

He said while the U.S. is the world’s largest beef producer, it is also the second-largest importer, and having tariff-free access is critical to Canada. It is Canada’s main competitor in other export markets.

Eringfeld said Canada Beef is planning for tariffs by looking at where it can shift marketing.

Its main competitors in the U.S. are lower cost producers such as Australia and Brazil, and he said imports are likely to grow because of lower domestic production.

Exports to Japan have not grown a lot in either volume or value, but the country remains a loyal customer. Canada has seven per cent market share there, competing against Australia, the U.S., New Zealand and Mexico. The market was worth $322 million in 2023.

About 30 per cent goes as fresh chilled beef and about 25 per cent of that goes into the retail stream. The remainder goes to restaurants and further processing.

The offal market accounts for about 45 per cent of shipments, and tongue is a popular item, said Eringfeld, as are brisket cuts, chuck and flank meats.

Under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, import duties are dropping from 22.5 per cent to nine per cent by 2030. Import duties of 2.5 per cent on offal are falling to zero between 2028 and 2030.

Japan is about 42 per cent self-sufficient in beef, due largely to its Wagyu production. Wagyu beef prices have been higher than imported beef but are becoming more competitive as the value of the yen depreciates.

The number three market, Mexico, represents what used to be the second largest export market. Some of that disappeared but last year started to return, Eringfeld said. It now sits at nine per cent and a value of $284 million.

About three-quarters is shipped fresh, with 20 per cent going to retail and 80 per cent to restaurants. Mexico buys a variety of cuts, including offal, chuck and flat meats such as inside rounds and short ribs.

Imports continue to grow as increased wages change food consumption habits and consumers increasingly choose higher-value cuts. There are also challenges such as drought, which threatens about 60 per cent of the rangeland and affects local production.

“Sustainability is an important focus,” Eringfeld said, as is animal welfare.

Canada faces lower cost competition from Brazil and Argentina after Mexico’s decision last year to import from South America for the first time.

Import tariffs continue to decline for Canadian beef going into South Korea, which will improve competitiveness. Under the free trade agreement, tariffs are decreasing 2.67 per cent each year. Import duties of 10.6 per cent will be zero by 2020, while the duties on offal were removed this year.

Imports peaked in 2022, dropped and then went back up in 2024 and represent about three per cent market share and $122 million in value. Most product is shipped frozen, and Canada would benefit from a greater presence in retail stores, he said, as there isn’t enough recognition of the Canadian brand.

The U.S. and Australia have the biggest market share in South Korea, but Canada also has to compete with domestic Hanwoo beef. Eringfeld said it is highly marbled, excellent quality and popular, but it’s also pricey.

Finally, Vietnam is a small market worth about $79 million in 2023 since exports began moving there in 2019. Canada holds a four per cent market share in the country, which also imports a lot of low-cost Indian water buffalo meat. Removing that from the equation would move Canada to a 26 per cent market share of actual beef.

Other countries that take beef include Hong Kong, which is taking less, Taiwan, which is stable, and the Philippines, which is increasing. Bahrain, Egypt and Kuwait are also increasing imports from Canada.

Meanwhile, the high value but small European market is declining, largely because only one packer is able to ship there. Exports are less than 1,000 tonnes, and Eringfeld described it as “a very difficult market.”

Contact karen.briere@producer.com

In 2022, the U.S. exported US$2.7 billion worth of beef to Korea, according to data from the U.S. Meat Export Federation. That figure was $2.1 billion in 2023.

In both years, U.S. exports to South Korea exceeded American beef sales to Japan.

Canada has captured a tiny share of Korea’s beef imports, valued at US$4.5 billion in 2022.

“U.S. beef accounted for 55.3 percent of South Korea’s total imports of the meat last year (2022), followed by Australian beef with 34 percent and beef from New Zealand with 4.8 percent and from Canada with 4.1 percent,” said Yonhap, a Korean news service, in 2023.

Canada has had a free trade agreement with South Korea since 2015 and so do Australia and America.

But South Korea imposes a 16 percent tariff on Canadian beef, much higher than the eight percent tariff on U.S. beef, said Dennis Laycraft, executive vice-president of the Canadian Cattle Association.

“The main reason we’re behind (in South Korea) is because of that tariff disadvantage.”

Data from Meat and Livestock Australia indicates that South Korean tariffs on Aussie beef are scheduled to drop to 10.6 percent in 2024 and tariffs on American beef will sink to 5.3 percent before being eliminated in 2026.

The CCA hopes the federal government can negotiate with South Korea to accelerate elimination of tariffs on Canadian beef. Right now, they’re scheduled to disappear in 2030.

This spring, representatives of Canada’s beef sector traveled to South Korea as part of a trade mission with federal export and trade minister Mary Ng.

“We are working with our federal government to reduce Canadian tariff rates (in South Korea) … This will level the playing field with our (U.S.) neighbours and open markets,” said CCA president Nathan Phinney.

Canada’s challenges with beef are representative of larger issues in the Korean market, which is a major importer of agri-food and seafood.

Data from Agriculture Canada shows that:

In 2022, Korea imported US$46.8 billion worth of agri-food products and seafood;

The U.S. is the largest player in Korea, supplying $10.6 billion worth of agri-food and seafood;

Canada is the ninth largest supplier, with a 2.5 percent share of the market, well behind Australia’s 8.4 percent; and

In 2022, Canada exported US$1.2 billion worth of agricultural goods to South Korea, mostly canola oil, wheat, pork and beef.

Canada has a significant trade deficit with Korea. In 2022, it exported $8.7 billion in merchandise to South Korea and imported $13.2 billion worth. Canada’s largest exports were mineral fuels and oils, mineral ores, pulp and paper and meat products.

Most imports from Korea were manufactured goods, including cars, motor vehicle parts and industrial machinery.

The decline in cattle, after years of drought-fried pasture, led to soaring U.S. beef prices. Higher prices incentivize companies to import cheaper beef and discourage U.S. beef purchases by buyers like China, Japan and Egypt.

Analysts expect lower demand for U.S. beef and higher costs for cattle to translate into negative quarterly margins for Tyson’s beef business, its largest unit, for the first time this year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expected the U.S. to drop to the ranking of world’s fourth-largest beef and veal exporter this year, down from second in 2022.

U.S. beef exports are projected to sink 14 percent this year from 2022 to about 1.4 million tonnes, the lowest since COVID-19 roiled meat processing and international trading in 2020, government data show. In 2024, when USDA expects U.S. production to decline further because of tight cattle supplies, exports are forecast to hit an eight-year low of 1.3 million tonnes.

U.S. beef exporters such as Tyson, Cargill and JBS face a double whammy from higher prices and strength in the U.S. dollar, which makes American products less attractive to other countries, said Pete Bonds, a Texas-based cattle producer.

“The future of this industry is not here in the United States,” Bonds said. “It’s offshore.”

For Tyson, losing U.S. export business compounds margin pressure from higher cattle prices, Goldman Sachs analysts said. U.S. beef exports typically command higher margins than domestic shipments, they said.

Goldman Sachs predicts margins will swing to negative 1.1 percent for Tyson’s beef business from positive eight percent a year ago. Adjusted margins were 0.2 percent in Tyson’s second quarter this year and 1.6 percent in the third quarter.

Tyson chief executive officer Donnie King in August warned low cattle inventories were leading to difficult export market conditions. The U.S. beef cow herd in January was the smallest since 1962.

Tyson has been reducing staff as its beef, chicken and pork units have struggled, with high prices prompting some Americans to eat less beef. The company said Nov. 9 it will close two plants in Florida and South Carolina where hundreds of workers cut and package meat.

Meat packers can use imports to help manage through low margins and high-priced U.S. cattle, analysts said. They often import lean beef from countries such as Australia and New Zealand to blend with fattier U.S. supplies to make hamburger.

Total U.S. imports from January through September were up about six percent from a year earlier, with Australian shipments climbing by 49 percent, according to government data.

U.S. ranchers have not started to rebuild the domestic herd, producers and analysts said, with more than half the nation’s cattle in areas that are still abnormally dry. The number of heifers in U.S. feedlots as of Oct. 1 was up 1.3 percent from a year earlier, signalling producers are fattening them for slaughter instead of keeping them on farms to reproduce.

The rebuilding process will likely be slow, keeping a lid on exports, producers and analysts said.

“Cattle numbers are tight and getting tighter,” said Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist with Oklahoma State University.

Trade data from Statistics Canada for the first seven months of 2023 shows that Canada exported $16.3 million worth of beef to the EU. That’s up from $12.2 million in the same period in 2022.

Meanwhile, the EU exported $44 million worth of beef to Canada from January to July, which is down from $66.8 million in the first seven months of 2022.

Beef imports from the United Kingdom have also dropped:

• From January to July 2022, beef imports from the U.K. were valued at $24 million
• From January to July 2023, imports from the U.K. were $7.2 million, a decline of 70 percent
• Beef exports from Canada to the U.K. were zero in the first seven months of 2023.

It’s possible that imports from Europe and Britain have been displaced by cheaper beef from South America.

“Imports from Brazil were up 506 percent in volume and up 483 percent in value to 4,090 tonnes and $26 million, respectively, while the average price went down 3.8 percent to $6.42 per kilogram,” said a trade report from Canada Beef, which looked at the first six months of 2023.

“Imports from the United Kingdom were down 76 percent in volume and down 74 percent in value … while the average price increased 6.7 percent to $7.76 per kg.”

Beef trade with the U.K. and Europe has become a highly contentious issue in Canada’s red meat industry.

In 2022, Canada’s trade deficit in pork and beef with Europe was $343 million.

For Britain, Canada exported no beef to the U.K. in 2022 while importing $33 million.

The trade data is a major irritant because Canada has a free trade deal with Europe. Red meat is supposed to flow freely between the trade partners, but the EU has imposed non-tariff trade barriers on Canadian beef and pork.

The frustrations reached a boiling point in July, when Canada and other nations welcomed Britain into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

At a signing ceremony in New Zealand, the U.K. became the 12th member of the trade pact.

In response, the Canadian Meat Council (CMA), the Canadian Cattle Association (CCA) and the Canadian Pork Council issued a joint statement “strongly opposing” Britain joining the trade agreement.

“The U.K. does not accept Canada’s food safety and animal health systems and measures, and those non-tariff barriers limit our access to the U.K. market,” the three groups said.

In simple terms, the trade deal means that red meat only flows in one direction — from Britain to Canada.

“We’re wide open for as much as they want to send here … but no (Canadian) beef (or pork) products would be going into the U.K.,” said Dan Darling, president of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance and a beef producer from Castleton, Ont.

“It’s a detriment to our producers.”

In September, Canada’s beef industry took action to prevent Britain from joining the CPTPP.

The CCA, CMA and the National Cattle Feeders’ Association launched a campaign called Say No To a Bad Deal. The goal is to pressure the government so that it won’t formally admit Britain into the CPTTP.

“Tell the federal government to say no to a bad trade deal and renegotiate the CPTPP with the United Kingdom,” says the website, saynotoabaddeal.ca.

“Trade deals only make sense when they are fair to Canadians.”

While the battle over beef trade continues, data shows that Canada is actually selling some pork to Europe. From January to July, Canada exported nearly $5 million in pork to the EU. That’s up from $647,000 during the same period in 2022.

However, huge amounts of pork continue to flow into Canada from the EU. From January to July, Europe shipped $140 million in pork to Canada.

Contact robert.arnason@producer.com

Cattle ranching, along with clearing land to sell timber or grow crops, is driving deforestation in the Amazon rainforest. The destruction of rainforests, which serve as carbon sinks, imperils global climate targets.

“The only solution for this deforestation in Brazil is to have a national mandatory traceability system,” JBS chief executive officer Gilberto Tomazoni said on a webcast of a New York Times panel on climate change Sept. 21.

“Then we can track individual by individual the animals. We don’t have, so far, a national program for traceability.”

Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter. The country’s beef industry blames criminals for most deforestation.

JBS has said that it tracks its direct cattle suppliers with “satellite geo monitoring” and its indirect suppliers with blockchain technology to prevent deforestation in its supply chain.

But environmentalists oppose the company’s plans to list shares in New York because of concerns about its impact on deforestation, climate change and other issues.

Activist group Global Witness said that for every US$1,000 invested in JBS since 2010, there has been around one soccer field of forest destruction in Brazil linked to its supply chain.

JBS has said that its listing proposal would “enhance corporate governance and transparency through adherence to SEC standards.” As of January 2026, only producers registered in its blockchain tool will be able to continue doing business with JBS, it said.

Last year, an audit by Brazilian prosecutors found nearly 17 percent of the cattle bought by JBS in Para state in the Amazon rainforest from July 2019 to June 2020 allegedly came from ranches with “irregularities” like illegal deforestation.

JBS said at the time that issues that led to the purchases had been fixed.

China, South Korea and the Philippines placed restrictions on Canadian beef imports following the announcement. The latter two lifted them within weeks. Atypical BSE is naturally occurring and the case wasn’t linked to contaminated feed.

Chris White, Canadian Meat Council chief executive officer, said officials are co-operating with their Chinese counterparts to get the restrictions lifted.

“We’re making incremental progress,” said White, adding he’s visited China twice this spring for meetings with Chinese officials on the situation.

“We’re still fully suspended but we continue to make the case to Chinese officials in both Ottawa and Beijing.”

Several other countries have also lifted their remaining restrictions on beef products from cows older than 30 months that were initiated in 2003, including Japan and Taiwan.

“That’s positive because I think it allows the Chinese to say, ‘maybe we need to re-evaluate the Canadian case,’ ” said White. “Our sense is, as well, from a documentation perspective, Chinese officials have everything that they need from (the Canadian Food Inspection Agency) to give them whatever scientific evidence or information they need.”

Brazil, China’s largest beef importer, has escaped restrictions despite it also reporting atypical cases of BSE.

White said Brazil makes up nearly half of China’s beef import market share compared to Canada’s three to five percent prior to the latest ban.

The size of Brazil’s market share is likely the reason behind the difference between how China is dealing with each country, he said.

“You can appreciate the fallout if half of all the selves were bare because of this one issue,” said White.

Relations between Brazil and China have also been on the upswing with Brazilian President Luiz Lula da Silva visiting China with a large delegation of the business community.

That’s something Canada cannot replicate, said White.

“They have the political, scientific and also just the volume of commodity that’s going in,” said White.

Despite the issues, China remains a large beef market for Canada to tap into as the Chinese middle class continues to expand. It currently stands at about 400 million people, said White.

“That’s a very lucrative market for any country,” he said, adding that the middle class is expected to double in the coming years.

Following a delay, an official with the CFIA is expected to be established with Canada’s embassy to China to help normalize the beef trading relationship, said White.

“We’ve done everything we can on our side and the Chinese have said they’ve got all the information and it’s working its way through its process,” said White. “And we have to respect their process.”

Canada received a negligible BSE risk country designation from the World Organization for Animal Health in May 2021.

Taiwan is the latest country to lift restrictions on Canadian beef products from cattle older than 30 months. It comes as Canada and Taiwan continue negotiations on a Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Arrangement.

Taiwan had closed its borders to all Canadian beef following the 2003 discovery of an Alberta cow infected with BSE.

Those restrictions eased in 2016 with Taiwan opening its market to Canadian beef younger than 30 months.

The move follows Japan announcing earlier this year that it was removing all remaining restrictions on Canadian beef — including processed products. That country opened its borders to beef older than 30 months in 2019.

Some products will remain ineligible to access the Taiwanese market, including ground beef, internal organs as well as specified risk materials.

While Taiwan is not a large export market, with Canadian beef exports valued at a little less than $14 million, it is being seen as an opportunity to build greater trading ability.

Currently, the United States is Taiwan’s largest beef supplier, making up a little more than half of the country’s nearly $2 billion in imports.

Meanwhile, China remains firmly closed to Canadian beef following Canada’s reporting of an atypical case of BSE found in Alberta in late 2021.

Atypical cases are not the result of contaminated feed, unlike Canada’s BSE cases in the early 2000s. It is naturally occurring, though rare.

Two other countries that introduced restrictions following discovery of the atypical case, South Korea and the Philippines, lifted their bans within weeks.

That 2021 case also did not affect the World Organization for Animal Health’s May 2021 status for Canada being listed as a negligible risk for the disease.

At the time of China’s closing its market, the country was Canada’s third-largest export market valued at nearly $200 million.