It’s pretty freaky looking at futures market charts these days.
$800 per tonne for old crop canola and $600 for new crop 2021? I never saw that coming, even just a few months ago. I mean, holy crap!
I also didn’t expect to see all time record stock market highs in the middle of a worldwide economic disaster, the likes of which hasn’t been seen for a century.
I didn’t expect to see Bitcoin get to $60,000.
I didn’t expect to see house prices almost everywhere soar, especially in already-overpriced Toronto and Vancouver.
I didn’t expect to see bored young guys (they have been mostly male) taking the little money they had, much from government unemployment benefits, and employing it to play cowboy in the equity derivative markets in a coordinated beatdown of some of the world’s smartest short-selling investors.
I didn’t expect to see Donald Trump, after all his failings and sins, almost get re-elected.
I didn’t expect to see U.S., British and European efforts to develop COVID-19 vaccines actually work – in less than a year.
I didn’t expect to see significant numbers of people, across the free world, embrace bizarro anti-mask beliefs that made them resist, argue against and undermine efforts to get the public to wear masks and simply and in a low-tech, cheap way reduce the transmission of a deadly virus.
I didn’t expect to see “vaccine hesitancy” exist in any significant way amongst the hard-hit poor folks and racial minorities that are worst affected by COVID-19.
I didn’t expect to see ludicrous hooligans and Neo-pagans sacking the U.S. Capitol.
I didn’t expect to see The Weeknd snubbed by the Grammys, after hearing his music incessantly played by my appreciative kids (in our family minivan on the way to 10,000 activities) all year long.
I did expect some things.
I expected to see the commodity market rally continue from 2020 into 2021. That makes sense.
I expected to see Joe Biden elected U.S. president. To believe differently would have been to have a darker view of the U.S. than seems reasonable.
I expected Brexit to go much better than Remainers seemed to be hoping was possible.
I expected Megxit to go worse than necessary. These things are made for unnecessary drama.
I expected to see China continue its belligerent diplomacy and foreign policy.
I expected farmers to do mostly OK, and to skirt past the worst dangers of the COVID economy.
I expected to become very, very sick of Zoom-based conferences and meetings, but also desperate for them as some sort of way of seeing what’s going on.
I expected to be very, very sick of winter by the time this locked-down season was ending.
So, with all of that in the rearview mirror, what do I expect to see for the rest of the year?
(I’m pondering this because I’m just finishing up a winter of 2021 outlook sessions.)
Well, with all those things that I never saw coming behind us in the last year, I’m going to keep my mouth shut. At least for a week. I’m going to enjoy allowing myself to revel in the feeling of admitting I just don’t know what the future will bring. I certainly didn’t anticipate a lot of what came in 2020-21.