Pascal Lamy has finally admitted defeat.
There will not be a World Trade Organization deal in principle before the end of 2008, the WTO director general said Dec. 12.
His plans for one last Geneva meeting of world trade and agriculture ministers in mid-December to try to reach a deal was scuttled when he concluded such a meeting would fail.
“My sense is that we now should focus on seeing how we gather the necessary political energy into the new year,” he told delegates.
For advocates of a WTO deal that would end export subsidies by 2013 and sharply reduce trade and production-distorting domestic subsidies, the lack of 2008 closure was a setback that could see a delay of six or seven months until talks resume.
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“We are disappointed that there was no ministerial and no closure on modalities,” said Alberta cow-calf operator Darcy Davis, president of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance.
“But I think on agriculture it has been reduced to just three or four issues and I believe we will see talks start again maybe by summer once the new U.S. administration is in place.”
Canadian supply managed sectors breathed a sigh of relief because any deal in a pressure-cooker Geneva negotiation would likely have meant a reduction in protection for sensitive products from Canadian dairy, poultry and egg sectors.
“I have mixed emotions looking at this,” said Canadian Federation of Agriculture vice-president Ron Bonnett, representing both supply management industries and exporters.
There were significant gains for exporters but still some issues for import-sensitive sectors. As well, it was a less-than-perfect deal for exporters still facing high subsidy competition abroad and some import restrictions.
“My best guess is we could start again in May,” Bonnett said. “People have been predicting the end of the round but I see progress being made.”
Canadian trade observers and experts were less optimistic.
“I think this is the practical end of the Doha Round,” said Michael Hart, distinguished fellow at Carleton University’s Centre for Trade Policy and Law in Ottawa. “Maybe they can resurrect it at some point but I think the world agenda has moved beyond the items created to be the centre for the Doha round almost a decade ago. And the term ‘development round’ was always more a political slogan than a political blue print.”
Lawrence Herman, a Toronto-based trade lawyer, said the prospect of a ministerial deal in late 2008 while the American administration is in transition and key players like Brazil and India face elections was unlikely.
Besides, large gaps in positions remain despite the optimists.
