EDMONTON — Farmers across Western Canada will likely see a continuation of dry, mild conditions for the rest of the winter and extending into spring as the lingering effects of El Nino continue to be felt in North America and around the world.
That was one of the messages delivered last week at FarmTech by Drew Lerner, president and senior meteorologist with World Weather Inc.
Lerner’s other key message was that El Nino is weakening gradually and will likely be fully expired by the fourth quarter of 2016, if not earlier.
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For growers, that means a return to more normal precipitation levels as the year progresses, with better rainfall distribution likely beginning in June and continuing for the rest of the year.
“I think as El Nino disappears we will see an increase in precipitation as time moves on,” Lerner said.
“If for some reason El Nino doesn’t go away as quickly as we think, then we could end up with a dry year, in Alberta in particular, but if El Nino does go ahead and diminishes, then I fully expect us to see a more normal summer.”
Regardless of how quickly El Nino peters out, growers across much of the West can bank on a dry start and presumably, a mostly uninterrupted seeding period beginning in late April and continuing through most of May.
Lerner, who has developed a reputation among farmers as one of the North America’s most knowledgeable and reliable weather prognosticators, said Western Canada’s long-term forecast will be largely influenced by El Nino’s decline.
Based on previous El Nino events of similar strength and duration, weather patterns could be consistent with what he calls an 18-year cycle.
The 18-year cycle is typified by normal temperatures and precipitation levels across Western Canada, in line with long-term averages.
Another possibility is the development of a La Nina event — El Nino’s alter ego — which typically involves cooler temperatures for much of Western Canada and above average precipitation.
Either way, it looks like growers can bank on a dry start and a return to normal rainfall amounts as the season progresses.
Despite a wet harvest that complicated operations across most of Western Canada last fall, soil moisture reserves are still relatively low across much of prairie grain belt.
Precipitation levels from November to mid-January were well below normal across much of the West.
Mild winter temperatures and limited snow cover could leave many areas low on moisture.
“Our moisture deficits today are greater than they were a year ago, and if we come into the spring with the same level of dryness and the same level of warmth (as last year), we could be in worse shape when the rains do arrive,” Lerner said.
If that happens, “then it’s very, very important that the rains be regular occurring and significant enough to pull us out of the hole,” he added.
“So it’s not a done deal that we’re going to see good conditions later in the season. We could very well have quite a struggle before we get the better conditions, but we will make the evolution toward a wetter finish.”
Lerner said growers in Western Canada should take signals from notable weather events in other parts of the world, including India, Morocco and possibly Western Australia.
“We’ve got a drought right now in Morocco and also impacting parts of northwestern Algeria and eastern Spain,” Lerner said.
“This is all durum wheat country, so this could be of interest to the farmers here in (Western Canada).
“We also have dryness in India, which is impacting some of the pulse crops there, as well as wheat (and other crops) … so those are all at least being pressured down in their production because of the drier tendency.”
Growers in Western Australia could also be in store for a dry planting season, depending on how Indian Ocean temperatures evolve over the next few months.
American growers in the lower mid-West could also be facing a wet, cool season, which could put seeding behind schedule.
Development of a La Nina generally spells good news for western Canadian farmers but bad news for growers in the southeastern United States, where excessive rainfall can significantly influence production.
As far as advice for Canadian growers is concerned, Lerner said farmers should take advantage of spring moisture but avoid seeding too early so as to limit exposure to potentially dry and hot conditions during late May and early June.
“I would probably be very cautious, but would try to plant early, taking advantage of what moisture is available when the snow melts, but not so early that (crops are exposed) to … dryness that may be ahead of us,” he said.
“So plant earlier than usual but not real early, and if you’re in the eastern part of the Prairies, you still have to be very careful about doing that.
“There’s a much higher probability of freezes coming early in the spring in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan, to the point where I would not plant anything early in those areas.”
