CBOT Weekly: USDA’s acreage report could push up prices

WINNIPEG – As the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases its crop acreage report in a few days, one analyst believed the report could have a bullish effect on the Chicago Board of Trade.

“If we come in near trade expectations for the (soybeans), it might be supportive,” said Terry Reilly, grains analyst with Futures International in Chicago, Ill.

Trade expectations are for about 84.36 million acres of soybeans, down from the 84.62 million in the USDA’s March acreage report.

Reilly said the same thing could result for corn. However, he cautioned that until the USDA’s releases its report, “we have no idea of how this is going to play out.”

Corn is expected to come in at about 86.70 million acres, down from the 89.80 million reported in March.

A break from the rainy weather that has plagued the U.S. Midwest this year has meant farmers should be able to plant more soybeans. And for a change, the forecast of rain next week would be beneficial to the crop’s growth rather than hindering it.

Although corn planting has been gaining nationally, Reilly said farmers across northern Indiana, northern Ohio and lower Michigan have continued to struggle with getting their corn into the ground.

“The producers probably will opt not to plant and maybe figure out other crops to plant at this point,” he said.

Reilly pointed to the G20 Summit in Japan, that begins Friday, as something that could quickly negate the influence of the USDA acreage report out that same day.

Hopes are trade negotiations will resume after U.S. President Donald Trump meets one-on-one with Chinese President Xi Jinping. If talks get the green light, CBOT bids could rise. If negotiations don’t resume, then bids could drop.

Regarding U.S. wheat, Reilly said with Statistics Canada releasing its acreage report this morning, the drop in total Canadian wheat acres provided a boost for Minneapolis spring wheat bids. Statistics Canada’s June report stated total wheat acres at about 24.60 million, which was nearly 1.1 million acres less than the agency’s March report.

Trade expectations for total U.S. wheat to slip a little, from 45.75 million acres in March to 45.65 million acres.

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