North American Grains/Oilseed Review – Canola ekes out small gains

By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, August 31 (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures canola platform ended slightly stronger on Friday, propped up by a Statistics Canada report calling for a smaller-than-expected canola crop this year.

This morning, the agency pegged canola production in 2018/19 at 19.2 million tonnes, which was below what most traders were expecting. It was also well below last year’s crop of 21.3 million tonnes.

The Canadian dollar was pressured by the negativity surrounding trade talks between the United States and Canada. The lower dollar helped improve canola’s competitiveness on the international scene.

Strength in soybeans and soyoil underpinned the market.

However, crush margins are still quite low and some traders expect canola production to change in future reports.

The November contract ran into technical resistance at the C$500 per tonne mark.

About 14,776 canola contracts traded, which compares with Thursday when just 13,220 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 5,760 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade chalked up modest gains to end the week. The United States Department of Agriculture reported sales of 250,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations.

According to Statistics Canada, soybean production should hit seven million tonnes in 2018, which would be down 9.2 per cent from the previous year.

However, reports that the U.S. could impose another US$200 billion worth of tariffs against China next week, dragged on prices.

The corn market finished higher in speculative buying.

China has auctioned off 71 million tonnes of state-owned corn since April.

Traders squared positions before the weekend.

Chicago wheat futures ended higher on news that Russia could limit its exports of wheat in the next few days. The Russian government is expected to hold a news conference on Monday to discuss their plans.

Ukraine has exported six million tonnes of grain this year, which was down 600,000 tonnes from the same point last year.

Reports calling for frost in some parts of Australia were supportive.

Futures Prices as of August 31, 2018

Canola
2018-08-31 14:23
Price Change
Nov 495.60 0.60
Jan 502.50 0.50
Mar 506.80 -0.10
May 509.50 -0.30
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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