North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola Down Ahead Of USDA Report

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Jan. 11 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts ended with small losses on Wednesday as speculative selling weighed on prices and traders squared positions ahead of Thursday’s US Department of Agriculture supply/demand reports.

Losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and relatively favourable South American production prospects contributed to the softer tone.

Strength in the Canadian dollar, which was up by roughly half a cent relative to its US counterpart, was another bearish influence, according to participants.

However, CBOT soyoil futures were up on the day and canola crush margins held steady at their relatively high levels which kept some end user demand in the market.

About 14,596 canola contracts were traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 15,204 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 9,238 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although prices were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed about two cents per bushel weaker on Wednesday, moving lower in pre-report positioning.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is set to release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates tomorrow. Many traders expect the government agency to revise soybean yields higher, which is bearish.

Ideas that Argentina is seeing drying conditions added to the downside.

SOYOIL prices closed higher on Wednesday, following overnight advances in Malaysian palm oil.

SOYMEAL closed lower on Wednesday.
CORN futures were about one cent per bushel lower in position squaring ahead of USDA data.

Reports of favourable weather in South American countries were also bearish for the grain.

However, recent losses in the US dollar limited the downside.

The US currency declined following a news conference with president-elect Donald Trump, which left questions in some traders’ minds about upcoming infrastructure spending. A lower greenback makes American commodities more appealing to international buyers.

WHEAT closed about five to eight cents per bushel lower on Wednesday.

Pre-report positioning was a feature, market watchers say.

Improved weather in key US and Black Sea winter wheat growing regions added to the downside.

Weakness in the US dollar capped declines.

Futures Prices as of January 11, 2017

2017-01-11 13:19
Price Change
Mar 498.10 -1.90
May 504.80 -1.90
Jul 508.60 -1.30
Nov 488.50 -1.40
Milling Wheat
2017-01-11 14:05
Price Change
Mar 237.00 -2.00
May 238.00 -2.00
Jul 237.00 -1.00
Oct 224.00 -1.00
2017-01-11 14:05
Price Change
Mar 317.00 0.00
May 320.00 0.00
Jul 323.00 0.00
Oct 323.00 0.00
New Barley
2017-01-11 14:05
Price Change
Mar 142.00 0.00
May 144.00 0.00
Jul 145.00 0.00
Oct 145.00 0.00

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton


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