North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Lack of direction results in lower prices

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, July 29 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were lower on Monday, as the market lacked direction due to the summer doldrums.

As well, the Prairie weather forecast has called for temperatures this week to be in the mid 20’s to the low 30’s Celsius. Although that will help growing conditions, it will weigh on values.

There were 9,394 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 10,785 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 4,152 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 449.40 dn 1.10
Jan 457.10 dn 1.00
Mar 464.30 dn 1.00
May 469.80 dn 0.80

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Monday, having gained between two and a half to three and a quarter cents per bushel.

The first face-to-face trade talks between the United States and China since May resumed today in Shanghai. A tweet from U.S. President Donald Trump put a sour note on talks, as he expects China won’t agree to a deal until after the U.S. president election in 2020. Talks resume on Tuesday, with the markets showing some renewed optimism.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its weekly export inspections, for the week ending July 25, which included 1.031 million tonnes of soybeans being shipped. That’s a gain of nearly 84 per cent over the previous week. A little more than 600,000 tonnes were destined to China.

Trade expectations for the condition of U.S. soybeans were 53 per cent good to excellent. The USDA releases its crop progress report at 3 pm CDT.

CORN futures were higher on Monday, with gains of two and a half cents per bushel for both of the September and December contracts.

Export inspections of corn amounted to almost 645,370 tonnes, for an increase of more than 47 per cent compared to the previous week.

Trade expectations for the condition of U.S. corn was for 56 per cent good to excellent.

The U.S. Corn Belt was forecast to receive a half inch to two inches of rain this week.

In China, fall armyworm has infected nearly 3.30 million acres as of July, according to government officials.

WHEAT futures were stronger on Monday, with the September contract in Chicago up seven and half cents per bushel, Kansas City up four and a half cents and Minneapolis with a gain of eight cents.

Export inspections tallied 390,730 tonnes, which was down by more than 12.6 per cent.

Trade expectations for U.S. spring wheat was for the crop to be 77 per cent good to excellent condition. Winter wheat was pegged to be 77 per cent harvested.

Argentina’s wheat crop for 2019 is forecast to be about 21.0 million to 22.0 million tonnes.

Despite a heat wave across Europe, France’s wheat crop is expected to reach almost 38.0 million tonnes, according to FranceAgriMer.

SovEcon upped its forecast for the Russian wheat exports by 6.18 million tonnes to now 31.41 million.

Futures Prices as of July 29, 2019

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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