North American Grain/Oilseed Review: July canola limit-up, new crop months all lower

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, May 17 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was mixed on Wednesday, with a limit-up move in the old crop July contract and losses in the new crop months.

The July contract hit its daily limit in early activity, leading to thin trade in the deferred months for the remainder of the session.

Tight old crop supplies remained a key driver in the front month, with advances in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil and chart-based speculative positioning contributing to the gains.

However, forecasts calling for much needed rain in dry areas of Western Canada over the next week put some pressure on the new crop contracts.

Strength in the Canadian dollar was also bearish for values.

About 14,029 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 20,392 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,742 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were mixed on Monday, with a small gain in the nearby July contract and losses in the deferred months.

While tight old crop supplies and good export demand remained supportive for the front month, forecasts calling for good growing weather across the Midwestern United States over the next week accounted for some of the selling pressure in new crop soybeans.

Monthly U.S. crush data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) showed 160.3 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April. That came in well below average trade guesses and compares with the 178 million bushels crushed the previous month. Soyoil stocks at 1.7 billion pounds were below expectations.

Tight soyoil stocks helped soyoil futures move higher on the day, despite the losses in soymeal and beans.

CORN was mixed with gains in the nearby contracts and losses in the deferreds.

Warmer Midwestern weather should aid crop development, with some beneficial moisture also in the forecasts.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced private exports of 1.7 million tonnes of new crop corn to China this morning and an additional 128,000 tonnes to Mexico.

WHEAT futures were down across the board, with the largest losses in Minneapolis spring wheat as the spreads between the three contracts saw some adjustment.

Forecasts calling for rain in dry areas of the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies provided the catalyst for the downturn in spring wheat. Dry areas of the Southern U.S. Plains also saw some welcome precipitation over the weekend.

Futures Prices as of May 17, 2021

Price Change
Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton


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