North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Corn down limit, canola follows Chicago markets lower

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

Winnipeg, Aug. 12 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Monday in sympathy with the much larger losses in Chicago Board of Trade corn and soybeans.

The United States grains and oilseeds were sharply lower on Monday, with limit-down losses in corn in reaction to updated acreage and production numbers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Larger than expected corn and wheat crop estimates weighed on those markets, with soybean prices also down on the day despite more supportive supply/demand numbers.

Canola lagged its U.S. counterparts to the downside, with last week’s rally still providing some support from a technical standpoint.

Reports of frost in some areas of the Peace River region overnight were also supportive, with yields likely hurt by the cooler temperatures.

About 17,615 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 27,090 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 9,720 of the contracts traded.

CORN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade posted limit-down losses of 25 cents per bushel in most months on Monday, as the market reacted to updated acreage and production estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture.

After a resurvey in July, the USDA pegged corn plantings in the country at 90 million acres. That was down slightly from the June report, but well above expectations. The agency surprisingly raised its yield forecast to 169.5 bushels per acre and pegged total production at 13.9 billion bushels, with a harvested area of 82 million acres.

SOYBEANS were down in sympathy with corn, although the soybean numbers from the USDA were mostly supportive.

The government agency pegged seeded soybean area at 76.7 million acres, which compares with the 80 million acre estimate in June.

U.S. soybean production for the year was forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, which would be down by 19 per cent from 2018.

WHEAT futures were all lower, with the largest losses in the winter wheats.

World wheat production for the year was forecast at 768 million tonnes by the USDA, which was down slightly from the July estimate, but still well above the 730.5 million tonnes grown the previous year. World wheat ending stocks were forecast at 285.4 muillion, which would be about 10 million tonnes above the previous year.

Total U.S. wheat production was pegged at 1.98 billion bushels, which was up by 59 million from July. Of the total, spring wheat was actually down one per cent from the June estimate, at 597 million bushels. As a result, Minneapolis futures lagged the Chicago and Kansas City contracts to the downside.

Futures Prices as of August 12, 2019

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Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton


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