North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola strengthens with soyoil

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Sept. 22 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Wednesday, after trading to both sides of unchanged in choppy activity.

Canola mainly followed the Chicago Board of Trade soyoil futures, which saw some wide price swings during the day but were stronger at the close. European rapeseed futures set fresh highs overnight, which provided some additional support.

The tight supply situation and need to ration demand remained another bullish influence for canola.

However, canola is looking overpriced compared to other options, and demand is already backing away at these price levels.

Strength in the Canadian dollar also weighed on values.

About 26,769 canola contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 29,076 contracts changed hands. Spreading was a feature, accounting for 20,902 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Wednesday, although activity was choppy as volatility in soyoil spilled into the bean market. Broad weakness in the United States dollar and a rally in the grains provided underlying support.

Chinese traders returned to the market after four days of holidays, although there were no signs of fresh export business on Wednesday.

The advancing U.S. harvest kept some caution in the soybean market, with the early stages of seeding in Brazil also being followed closely.

CORN, meanwhile, was said to be due for a correction after Tuesday’s losses. Bullish chart signals contributed to the gains, as corn futures bounced off of the 200-day moving average.

Gains in Chinese corn futures were also supportive, although the advancing U.S. harvest kept a lid on the upside. The weather forecasts look reasonably favourable heading into October.

WHEAT corrected higher, taking back most of the losses posted the previous three sessions.

Mixed production estimates out of Russia kept some caution in the market. Russian analysts SovEcon pegged the country’s crop at 75.6 million tonnes. That’s about three million tonnes above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s current projection. Meanwhile, a separate agency, IKAR, recently lowered their estimate from 77 million down to 74-75 million citing dryness in some areas.

Futures Prices as of September 22, 2021

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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