North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola settles mixed after choppy day

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, April 9 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market settled mixed on Friday, with losses in the front months and gains in the new crop contracts.

The nearby May contract had set fresh contract highs in early activity, but retreated in sympathy with Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil after the release of the monthly United States Department of Agriculture supply/demand report, which was deemed bearish for soybeans.

Profit-taking ahead of the weekend also put some pressure on values.

However, ongoing concerns over tight supplies provide support, with drought conditions across much of the Prairies also underpinning the futures despite forecasts calling for some much needed moisture over the next week.

About 24,348 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 19,217 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 13,230 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Friday, as the market reacted to the latest monthly supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture.

The USDA kept its projection for U.S. soybean ending stocks this year unchanged at 120 million bushels, which accounted for some selling pressure in the market as expectations had been for a downward revision on the month.

Meanwhile, world soybean stocks were raised by 3.13 million tonnes from March, with an increased production estimate out of Brazil behind some of the adjustment.

CORN futures were narrowly mixed, running into chart-based resistance after initially hitting fresh contract highs in reaction to the USDA report.

U.S. corn carryout for the year was lowered by 150 million bushels from March, now at 1.352 billion bushels.

The world corn carryover came in below expectations at 283.85 million tonnes. That was down by about four million tonnes from the March estimate and well below the 303 million tonne carryout from the previous year.

WHEAT futures were higher, with declining world supplies behind some of the strength.

The USDA lowered its world wheat carryout forecast to 295.5 million tonnes, which was down by about 5.7 million tonnes from the earlier estimate and below even the lowest pre-report estimates.

Dryness concerns in the northern U.S. Plains were also supportive for spring wheat.

However, an increase in the U.S. wheat carryout to 852 million bushels, from 836 million in March, tempered the upside slightly.

Futures Prices as of April 9, 2021

Price Change
Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton


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