North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola settles mixed

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Feb. 8 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures canola contracts were mixed at Friday’s close, with losses in the front months and gains in the new crop contracts.

Bearish technical signals weighed on prices early in the day. Large old crop supplies, concerns over declining Chinese demand and strength in the Canadian dollar also put some pressure on values.

Losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil also weighed on canola for much of the day. However, soyoil managed to move higher by the close.

CBOT soybeans were also firm at the final bell, only seeing a muted reaction to the release of a number of reports from the United States Department of Agriculture.

About 44,256 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 29,642 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 36,772 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled with small gains on Friday, seeing very little reaction to updated supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture.

Total U.S. soybean ending stocks for the current 2018/19 marketing year are now forecast at 910 million bushels, which would be down 45 million from the previous estimate, but still roughly double the 2017/18 level.

The world numbers pointed to declining Chinese import demand and increasing stocks in that country, which raised some concerns over just how many beans the U.S. may be able to sell to China.

The USDA dropped its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 5 million tonnes, pegging the crop there at 117 million. Argentina’s soybean crop is now estimated at 55 million tonnes, down by half a million from the December forecast.

CORN futures posted small losses after a choppy day.

The USDA cut its U.S. corn yield estimate for the year by 2.5 bushels per acre, to 176.4 bushels per acre. The production and carry-out stocks numbers were both lowered as well, providing some underlying support.

Brazil’s corn crop was left unchanged at 94.5 million tonnes by the USDA. Argentina’s crop is now forecast at 46 million tonnes, which would be up by 3.5 million from the December estimate.

WHEAT futures were mixed, with gains in the Chicago and Minneapolis futures and losses in Kansas City hard red winter wheat.

U.S. winter wheat seedings were pegged at 31.29 million acres by the USDA. That was below trade estimates and down by about 1.3 million acres on the year.

While the smaller acreage base was supportive, U.S. wheat stocks for the current marketing year were revised higher.

Futures Prices as of February 8, 2019

Canola
2019-02-01 13:19
Price Change
Mar 482.40 0.70
May 490.40 0.80
Jul 497.70 0.80
Nov 495.50 1.40
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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