North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola continues lower

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, May 22 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Friday, seeing a continuation of Thursday’s declines as an early attempt at correcting higher proved short-lived.

Losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil accounted for some of the spillover weakness in canola, with chart-based speculative long liquidation a feature.

Relatively favourable seeding weather in the eastern Prairies also weighed on values. However, rain delays and even snow in Alberta provided some underlying support.

Weakness in the Canadian dollar also helped temper the declines in canola.

About 23,323 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 11,884 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,832 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved to both sides of unchanged on Friday, settling narrowly mixed with the bias to the downside in the most active months, as investors adjusted positions ahead of the Memorial Day long weekend.

Activity in the product spreads was a feature, with soymeal up on the day and soyoil ending down sharply.

Increasing tensions between the United States and China were a bearish factor for soybeans, as the U.S. is upset over Chinese actions in Hong Kong and China is so far not living up to its Phase One trade deal commitments.

Good U.S. seeding weather and losses in crude oil added to the generally softer tone.

CORN futures were narrowly mixed, lacking any clear direction.

The good U.S. seeding pace and expectations for a large crop kept the bias to the downside, with losses in world energy markets adding to the softer tone in the renewable-fuel linked grain.

WHEAT futures were lower, as speculative selling ahead of the weekend weighed on values.

The losses came despite production uncertainty in a number of wheat growing regions of the world. Concerns in Russia due to dry weather conditions provided some support, as estimates out of the country have seen downward revisions lately.

A virtual crop tour of Kansas pegged average yields in the major wheat growing state at 44.5 bushels per acre, which would be slightly below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 47 bushel per acre estimate. Total wheat production in the state is forecast to be down by 16 per cent on the year, due to a combination of reduced seeded acres and the smaller yield prospects.

Futures Prices as of May 22, 2020

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Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton


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