North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola turns around after earlier loses

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, June 10 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures settle most highly on Thursday, with only the November contract posting a small loss at the close as prices recovered from earlier declines.

The eastern Prairies received rain yesterday, especially a strip through southern Manitoba that brought two to three inches. Outside of that the amounts were well under one inch. Meanwhile, subsoil moisture levels remain critically low throughout the region.

Declines in the Chicago soy complex put pressure on canola, as did losses in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil.

At mid-afternoon the Canadian dollar was virtually unchanged, with the loonie at 82.70 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 82.68.

There were 30,322 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 24,918 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,353 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 871.80 up 7.80
Nov 761.30 dn 1.90
Jan 763.00 up 0.50
Mar 761.30 up 2.40

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Thursday, due to increases in ending stocks.

The United States Department of Agriculture issued its monthly supply and demand, which showed 2020/21 soybean ending stocks up 12.5 per cent at 135 million bushels. That for 2021/22 increased 10.7 per cent at 155 million bushels.

The department said old crop soymeal ending stocks were 400,000 tonnes and held the new crop carryover at 450,000 tonnes. Old crop soyoil ending stocks were nearly 1.81 million pounds, while those for 21/22 were trimmed by 0.67 per cent to 1.5 million pounds.

In its weekly export sales report the USDA said 2020/21 soybean sales were 15,700 tonnes for the week ended June 3. That’s a drop of 12 per cent from the previous week. New crop sales amounted to 105,000 tonnes. Old crop soymeal export sales came in at 136,300 tonnes and 3,900 tonnes of old crop. Total soyoil sales were 3,900 tonnes.

CONAB reported it increased its projected for the 2020/21 Brazil soybean crop by 525,000 tonnes at almost 135.9 million. The USDA’s number was upped one million tonnes to 137 million.

CORN futures were higher on Thursday, as stocks were forecast tighten.

The USDA reported a drop of 11.9 per cent in 20/21 corn ending stocks of less than 1.11 billion bushels. Also, the department cut the 21/22 carryover by about 10 per cent to 1.36 billion bushels.

U.S. corn export sales were 189,600 tonnes of old crop, for a 64 per cent drop from the previous week, and 26,400 tonnes of new crop.

CONAB hacked 10 million tonnes off its forecast for 2020/21 corn production to 96.4 million. The USDA’s call went down 3.5 million tonnes at 98.5 million. Also, the department held Argentine corn production at 47 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were higher on Thursday, also due to reduced ending stocks.

Rain has been forecast for the drought-stricken U.S. Northern Plains, with amounts expected to be about one inch, with strong winds and hail possible. Cool, wet weather was causing delays to the winter wheat harvest in the Southern Plains.

In the June S&D estimates old crop wheat ending stocks were 852 million bushels, down 2.3 per cent from May, and eased the new crop carryout by 0.5 per cent at 770 million bushels.

The USDA increased its forecast for global wheat production by 5.46 million tonnes at 794.44 million. Its prediction for the global old crop wheat carryout was cut by about 1.2 million tonnes at 293.48 million. The department upped the new crop carryover by 1.84 million tonnes at 296.8 million.

Wheat export sales for 21/22 came to 325,900 tonnes. The new crop year for U.S. wheat began June 1 and included sales of 837,100 tonnes being carried over from 20/21.

Strategie Grain bumped up its projection for European Union soft wheat by 1.16 per cent at 131.1 million tonnes.

Futures Prices as of June 10, 2021

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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