North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola falls back as loonie passes 75 cents

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Aug. 5 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were mostly lower on Wednesday, due to the rise in the Canadian dollar. By mid-afternoon the loonie was at 75.30 U.S. cents, compared to Tuesday’s close of 74.78.

A Calgary-based analyst explained the increase in the loonie is a result of growing weakness in the United States dollar. He said the markets have been turning away from the greenback as the world’s reserve currency over the course of the summer.

Dryness on the Prairies has become an issue, with the need for rain over most of the region. However that excludes the northern growing areas of Alberta, along with some parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

There was support for canola from Malaysian palm oil, which turned higher following declines in the overnight trading. Lower European rapeseed weighed on canola values.

There were 20,638 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 22,089 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,150 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 488.40 dn 2.40
Jan 495.00 dn 2.30
Mar 499.60 dn 0.90
May 503.50 up 0.20

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Wednesday, due to the potential for record yields in the United States.

There have been reports from a number of crop tours that soybean yields could reach a record 54 bushels per acre.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast little, if any rain for Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio for the rest of this week. Growing areas west of the Mississippi River could receive upwards to a half inch of rain by the weekend. The 14-day forecast for the central U.S. has called warmer temperatures and increased precipitation.

The United States Department of Agriculture announced a private sale of 192,000 tonnes of soybeans to China. Delivery will be during the 2020/21 marketing year.

Trade representatives from the U.S. and China are scheduled to meet via video conference on Aug. 15 to assess the Phase One trade deal.

Agroconsult has projected an additional 1 million soybean acres in Brazil bringing its forecast to 132.6 million.

CORN futures were higher on Wednesday, as weakness in the U.S. dollar overpowered strong likelihood of large corn yields.

The greenback slipped under 93.0 on the U.S. Dollar Index. During the summer the markets have been turning away from the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Reports said predictions for U.S. corn yields are upwards to 184 bushels per acre.

Agroconsult pegged the Brazil corn crop in 2020 to reach 110.3 million tonnes.

Ukraine upped its corn production projection for 2020 by 5.7 per cent to 38.9 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were steady to higher on Wednesday, as Chicago and Kansas City made gains while Minneapolis was firm.

The catastrophic explosion in Beirut on Aug. 4 destroyed a vital grain terminal at the city’s port. Reports stated that upwards to 85 per cent of Lebanon’s grain reserves were in the terminal.

France, one of the largest wheat producers in the European Union, cut its soft wheat product forecast for 2020 by 5.1 per cent to 29.7 million tonnes.

Romania lowered its forecast for its 2020 wheat crop by 40 per cent compared to last year. Expectations now call for approximately 5.55 million tonnes of wheat.

Futures Prices as of August 5, 2020

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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