Corn and soybeans tied to technicals amid large supplies

Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

WINNIPEG, April 19 (CNS) – Corn and soybean markets look to be rangebound over the next three weeks as U.S. farmers try to get their crops planted, according to a market-watcher.

“We’re slightly behind but that can be made up quickly with the equipment we have,” said Scott Capinegro, president of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Barrington, Illinois.

He says an oversupply of corn and soybeans has made it tough to be bullish on either commodity right now, especially soybeans.

He believes they could sink as low as US$8.85 a bushel.

“If we get all these bean acres planted and even with the 48 bushel yield (USDA’s long-term yield trend) which is four bushels less than last year, our carryout will be huge,” he said.

There are also some ideas soybean acres could increase slightly if farmers switch out corn due to the wet spring.

“I can’t be bullish on beans, I don’t see any reason,” said Capinegro.

When it comes to corn, Capinegro says the US$3.50 level (July contract) is solid support right now, but it has a chance to go as low as $3.35.

“But then a weather problem occurs and we rally,” he explained. “So we could get a weather bounce.”

He adds the December corn contract could also jump higher, perhaps as high as $4.05 to $4.25.

Capinegro says there are some market-watchers who feel corn and soybeans could still pull off a rally. He explains they point to what happened last year but he says 2017 is different.

“That’s because both Brazil and Argentina had problems last year” he said. “They don’t have problems this year they have a massive crop; that’s the whole darn thing.”

He adds US corn and soybean trade is also predicated on a smooth

flow of exports to China, something that could be hampered if there is a significant change in U.S. trade policy.


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