Wheat rises on bargain buying, canola drifts lower Thursday

Canola futures settled a little lower on Thursday on generally good harvest weather prospects and despite strength in soybeans.

Although there is potential for thunderstorms tonight in many areas of the Prairies, the seven-day forecast looks mostly dry and warm.

The Saskatchewan Agriculture crop report today said that 14 percent of the over all crop had been combined as of Aug. 21, ahead of the 10-year average of eight percent.

Just two percent of canola in the province had been harvested.

The average of a poll of analysts put the canola crop at 18.6 million tonnes. Statistics Canada will release the results of its survey of farmers’ production expectations on Aug. 31.

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SOYBEAN futures rose.

Crop scouts on the annual Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour found soybean pod counts lower than average in top growing regions in Illinois and the western half of Iowa. Final data from the four-day crop tour is due on Friday.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales of more than two million tonnes for the shipping season that starts on Sept. 1 topped analyst estimates for 400,000 to 600,000, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed. More than half of the sales were bound for China.

Soy oil was flat after strong gains on Wednesday following news that the United States was placing duties on imports of veg oil biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia. If the duties stay in place, it could raise the demand for American soy oil to make into biodiesel.

CORN futures were little changed.

WHEAT BARGAINS

Wheat futures rose on bargain buying and ideas that the price has fallen low enough that it might attract increased demand from livestock feeders.

HUGE RUSSIAN CROP

Forecasts of Russia wheat crop are getting larger.

SovEcon today raised its estimate by 1 million tonnes to a record 78.9 million tonnes. It raised its export forecast by 400,000 tonnes to 32.4 million. That would make it the world’s largest exporter this year.

Russian farmers have harvested about half this year’s crop area.

The USDA’s forecast for Russia wheat is 77.5 million tonnes, and exports of 31.5 million. Last year it produced 72.5 tonnes and exported 27.8 million tonnes.

The International Grains Council today raised its forecast of global wheat production in 2017/18 to 742 million tonnes, up 10 million from its previous forecast but still below the prior season’s 754 million.

“Grains exports from the Black Sea region could surpass 90 million tonnes for the first time, accounting for one quarter of global trade, but there is speculation among market participants about possible logistical constraints,” the IGC said.

MIDWEST CROP TOUR

The final results from this week’s annual industry tour of Midwest crops will be released on Friday.

But generally the four-day tour appears to be confirming the United States Department of Agriculture’s forecasts are not far off.

The USDA’s Aug. 10 report shocked some, with corn and soybean forecasts that were higher than what the trade expected.

Crops are highly variable across the Midwest with yields hard hit in dry areas mostly in the west but good prospects elsewhere.

The crop is far from being in the bin yet, but this week’s tour appears to indicate that, overall, corn and soybean production should be adequate, although the soybean yield might not reach the USDA’s forecast.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 98 cents US$47.43 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US79.81 cents, up from 79.70 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2530.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 13 points or 0.09 percent at 15,076.16.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 28.69 points, or 0.13 percent, to 21,783.4, the S&P 500 lost 5.07 points, or 0.21 percent, to 2,438.97 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.08 points, or 0.11 percent, to 6,271.33.

 

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   504.70s   -3.30   -0.65%

Canola Jan 18   510.20s   -2.50   -0.49%

Canola Mar 18   514.10s   -1.60   -0.31%

Canola May 18   515.40s   -1.10   -0.21%

Canola Jul 18   516.00s   -0.70   -0.14%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   251.00s   +4.00   +1.62%

Milling Wheat Dec 17   254.00s   +4.00   +1.60%

Milling Wheat Mar 18   261.00s   +4.00   +1.56%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   306.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17   307.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18   295.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 17   941-2s   +6-2   +0.67%

Soybeans Nov 17   946-4s   +8-4   +0.91%

Soybeans Jan 18   955-2s   +8-4   +0.90%

Soybeans Mar 18   964-0s   +8-4   +0.89%

Soybeans May 18   971-6s   +8-2   +0.86%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 17   297.6s   +4.3   +1.47%

Soybean Meal Oct 17   299.0s   +4.2   +1.42%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   300.9s   +4.4   +1.48%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 17   34.78s   +0.06   +0.17%

Soybean Oil Oct 17   34.90s   +0.06   +0.17%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   35.13s   +0.07   +0.20%

 

Corn Sep 17   342-0s   unch   unch

Corn Dec 17   356-2s   +0-4   +0.14%

Corn Mar 18   368-6s   +0-4   +0.14%

Corn May 18   375-4s   +0-6   +0.20%

Corn Jul 18   381-4s   +1-0   +0.26%

 

Oats Sep 17   239-2s   +0-4   +0.21%

Oats Dec 17   252-2s   +6-2   +2.54%

Oats Mar 18   255-6s   +7-0   +2.81%

Oats May 18   254-2s   +3-6   +1.50%

Oats Jul 18   248-4s   -1-2   -0.50%

 

Wheat Sep 17   409-0s   +5-6   +1.43%

Wheat Dec 17   434-4s   +4-4   +1.05%

Wheat Mar 18   457-2s   +4-2   +0.94%

Wheat May 18   471-6s   +4-0   +0.86%

Wheat Jul 18   485-0s   +3-0   +0.62%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 17   650-4s   +11-2   +1.76%

Spring Wheat Dec 17   668-6s   +11-6   +1.79%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   673-0s   +11-2   +1.70%

Spring Wheat May 18   666-4s   +10-0   +1.52%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   660-2s   +9-4   +1.46%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 17   405-4s   +7-6   +1.95%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   433-2s   +7-4   +1.76%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   451-6s   +7-4   +1.69%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   466-0s   +7-4   +1.64%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   484-0s   +7-6   +1.63%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Aug 17   105.950s   +0.300   +0.28%

Live Cattle Oct 17   106.825s   +0.650   +0.61%

Live Cattle Dec 17   109.800s   +0.700   +0.64%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 17   141.600s   -0.025   -0.02%

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   142.175s   +0.275   +0.19%

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   142.400s   +0.700   +0.49%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   63.775s   +0.225   +0.35%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   59.250s   +0.400   +0.68%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   63.900s   +0.575   +0.91%

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