Wheat down hard on disappointing U.S. weekly exports

It was a mostly down day on North American crop futures markets on Thursday, weighed down by poor weekly U.S. wheat exports and a rising U.S. dollar.

The biggest loser was wheat, with nearby Minneapolis down about three percent and Chicago down 3.8 percent.

Canola fell on the overall negative tone and on fund selling.

The May contract fell $6.70 to $453.90 a tonne and July fell $4.20 to $455.90.

That ended the inversion where the nearby contract had been higher than the defered month.

New crop November fell $1.20 to $448.40.

Although the U.S. dollar rose against many world currencies, the loonie made gains and that also weighed on canola.

Canola basis levels in some places have improved.

Although soybeans and meal were down, soy oil edged higher, supported by stronger crude oil values.

Wheat fell on disappointing export sales of old-crop U.S. wheat.

Sales for the week ended March 19 were only 102,341 tonnes, a marketing year low.

New-crop sales were 79,350 tonnes.

The USDA will issue its prospective planting survey results on Tuesday. It will also report U.S. March 1 grain stocks. Traders expect wheat stocks will be up nearly eight percent from a year ago.

Light rain fell in the last day in eastern Oklahoma and the southern Midwest, but there was little relief for the driest areas of Kansas and Nebraska, Reuters reported. Hard red winter wheat conditions could deteriorate this week.

Rain has been so heavy in the soft wheat areas of the Ohio River Valley that the risk of fungal disease is growing.

Russia will probably not extend a tax on wheat exports,

imposed until June 30, if optimism over lower inflation and a large crop persists among officials, SovEcon consultancy said.

Corn futures fell almost one percent.

Corn export sales totaled 434,953 tonnes, near the low end of analysts’ expectations. The sales included a purchase of 60,831 tonnes by China, the largest sale to the country in 11 months.

The International Grains Council forecast global corn and wheat production would fall in 2015-16, leading to a drawdown in stocks.

It forecast global corn output to fall to 941 million tonnes, down from 990 million tonnes in 2014-15, due to a return to more normal yields.

Corn stocks at the end of 2015-16 are projected to fall to 171 million tonnes, down from 191 million.

The IGC put global wheat production in 2015-16 at 709 million tonnes, down 10 million tonnes.

Wheat consumption is expected to edge up slightly to 711 million tonnes from 708 million, leading to a modest drawdown in stocks to 196 million from 198 million.

The U.S. buck rose against many world currencies today on better-than-expected weekly jobless claims data and on remarks from regional Federal Reserve presidents alluding to the need for higher interest rates.

Crude oil rose on the deteriorating situation in Yemen. The Saudi Arabian air force bombed rebels in the country overnight.

The Houthi rebels are mostly Shia Muslims backed by Iran and are enemies of the Sunni Muslim monarchy of Saudi Arabia.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $2.22 to US$51.43 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.19 cents, up from 79.92 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2471.

North American stock market indexes are down again today, but the declines are not as bad as on Wednesday when the Dow and S&P 500 were both down about 1.5 percent and the TSX composite was off one percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2015     453.90     -6.70       -1.45%

Canola Jul 2015       455.90     -4.20       -0.91%

Canola Nov 2015     448.40     -1.20       -0.27%

Canola Jan 2016      449.20     -1.40       -0.31%

Canola Mar 2016      451.00     -1.50       -0.33%

 

Milling Wheat May 2015    238.00     unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015     239.00     unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015    243.00     unch 0.00%

 

Durum Wheat May 2015   323.00     unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015     313.00     unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015    318.00     unch 0.00%

 

Barley May 2015      202.00     unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015       202.00     unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2015      187.00     unch 0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2015 974.5      -4.25       -0.43%

Soybeans Jul 2015   978.75     -3.75       -0.38%

Soybeans Aug 2015 977.75     -3.25       -0.33%

Soybeans Sep 2015 962.75     -2    -0.21%

Soybeans Nov 2015 955.25     -2    -0.21%

Soybeans Jan 2016  960.25     -2    -0.21%

 

Soybean Meal May 2015  322.4      -2.1  -0.65%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015    320.9      -1.8  -0.56%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015  319.4      -1.6  -0.50%

 

Soybean Oil May 2015     31.17      +0.13      +0.42%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015       31.39      +0.13      +0.42%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015     31.46      +0.15      +0.48%

 

Corn May 2015 391.25     -3.75       -0.95%

Corn Jul 2015  399.25     -3.75       -0.93%

Corn Sep 2015 406.75     -3.5  -0.85%

Corn Dec 2015 414.75     -3.25       -0.78%

Corn Mar 2016 423.75     -3    -0.70%

 

Oats May 2015 277.75     -4.5  -1.59%

Oats Jul 2015  279  -5    -1.76%

Oats Sep 2015 280.5      -4.25       -1.49%

Oats Dec 2015 280.5      -3.75       -1.32%

Oats Mar 2016 284.75     -3    -1.04%

 

Wheat May 2015     499.25     -19.75     -3.81%

Wheat Jul 2015       504.75     -19   -3.63%

Wheat Sep 2015      514.25     -19   -3.56%

Wheat Dec 2015     528.75     -19.25     -3.51%

Wheat Mar 2016      542  -19.25     -3.43%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2015   563.25     -17.5       -3.01%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015     569  -17.25     -2.94%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015   576.75     -17.25     -2.90%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015   587.25     -17   -2.81%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016   599.5      -16.75     -2.72%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2015      543  -20   -3.55%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 548.75     -19.5       -3.43%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015      560  -18.75     -3.24%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015      575  -17.5       -2.95%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016       586.5      -17.5       -2.90%

 

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