Weaker dollar, cold weather, holds canola

Winnipeg – ICE Futures canola contracts saw some wide price swings on Thursday before settling within a dollar of either side of unchanged.

Weakness in the Canadian dollar was a major supportive influence, as the currency fell by another half of a cent relative to its United States counterpart and crush margins widened.

A lack of significant farmer selling pressure, as extremely cold temperatures across much of the Prairies continued to delay country movement, was also supportive.

However, losses in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex and a general ‘risk-off’ sentiment in the broader financial markets weighed on values, according to participants.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to release a number of key reports on Friday, and pre-report positioning was a feature.

About 29,642 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 17,533 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 23,244 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Thursday, as ideas that China and the United States are still far apart on reaching a trade deal weighed on values.

Forecasts calling for much needed rain in parts of Brazil also weighed on values as harvest pressure ramps up from the South American country.

Positioning ahead of Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture reports was another feature.

The USDA will release its monthly supply/demand report on Friday, along with some data from January that was delayed due to the government shutdown.

CORN futures were lower on the day, as losses in wheat and positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA reports weighed on prices.

Declining U.S. ethanol production also weighed on the renewable-fuel-linked grain.

WHEAT futures were all lower, with chart-based speculative selling a feature as prices backed away from nearby highs and some stops were hit on the way down.

Strength in the U.S. dollar index contributed to the softer tone in wheat, as the rising currency may cut into some export demand.

Wheat traders will be watching Friday’s USDA reports for winter wheat acreage estimates and the quarterly stocks numbers.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down $1.37 at US$52.64 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.18 cents, down from 75.82 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3301.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Mar 19 484.20s -0.60 -0.12%

Canola May 19 492.90s +0.10 +0.02%

Canola Jul 19 500.60s +0.40 +0.08%

Canola Nov 19 498.60s +0.50 +0.10%

Canola Jan 20 503.00s +0.70 +0.14%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Mar 19 913-2s -8-4 -0.92%

Soybean May 19 927-2s -8-4 -0.91%

Soybean Jul 19 941-0s -8-2 -0.87%

Soybean Aug 19 946-2s -8-2 -0.86%

Soybean Sep 19 949-0s -7-4 -0.78%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 19 305.5s -3.5 -1.13%

Soybean Meal May 19 309.5s -3.5 -1.12%

Soybean Meal Jul 19 313.5s -3.4 -1.07%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 19 30.81s -0.09 -0.29%

Soybean Oil May 19 31.12s -0.08 -0.26%

Soybean Oil Jul 19 31.43s -0.06 -0.19%

 

Corn Mar 19 376-4s -3-4 -0.92%

Corn May 19 384-2s -3-6 -0.97%

Corn Jul 19 392-2s -3-4 -0.88%

Corn Sep 19 395-2s -3-2 -0.82%

Corn Dec 19 400-2s -2-6 -0.68%

 

Oats Mar 19 286-2s -1-2 -0.43%

Oats May 19 288-0s -0-6 -0.26%

Oats Jul 19 287-6s -0-6 -0.26%

Oats Sep 19 280-4s -0-2 -0.09%

Oats Dec 19 274-2s -0-4 -0.18%

 

Wheat Mar 19 513-2s -12-6 -2.42%

Wheat May 19 517-0s -11-6 -2.22%

Wheat Jul 19 521-6s -10-4 -1.97%

Wheat Sep 19 529-4s -9-2 -1.72%

Wheat Dec 19 542-6s -7-6 -1.41%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 19 564-4s -8-6 -1.53%

Spring Wheat May 19 568-0s -8-0 -1.39%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 575-0s -7-2 -1.25%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 581-0s -6-6 -1.15%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 592-6s -6-2 -1.04%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 496-2s -13-0 -2.55%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 503-6s -11-0 -2.14%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 511-2s -11-0 -2.11%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 520-6s -10-0 -1.88%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 537-2s -7-6 -1.42%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Feb 19 126.300s -0.100 -0.08%

Live Cattle Apr 19 126.825s -0.325 -0.26%

Live Cattle Jun 19 117.150s -0.075 -0.06%

 

Feeder Cattle Mar 19 143.250s +0.075 +0.05%

Feeder Cattle Apr 19 144.875s +0.025 +0.02%

Feeder Cattle May 19 145.900s +0.375 +0.26%

 

Lean Hogs Feb 19 55.275s -0.650 -1.16%

Lean Hogs Apr 19 59.600s -1.300 -2.13%

Lean Hogs May 19 67.350s -1.025 -1.50%

 

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