Weak U.S. crop market overwhelms canola futures

The strong downward pressure from soybeans washed over the canola market on Wednesday, knocking the November contract down almost three percent.

Worries about damage from excess rain and generally stunted and delayed development had helped canola edge higher for the previous few days but the weight of falling soybeans and soyoil dominated trade today.

But even with today’s fall, canola has done better than soybeans this month.

Since late June, November soybeans have fallen about 10 percent while November canola has fallen about 4.3 percent.

Read Also

U.S. livestock: Cattle slip back, hogs gain

Chicago cattle futures slipped back on Friday after Thursday’s pause. Hog futures crept upward. Most-active December live cattle futures closed…

November canola closed at $449.10, down $13.50 or 2.92 percent.

A support level for canola has been established at about the $447-$448 level. It bounced back from that level on June 11 and 12 and again on July 2.

If it breaks below that line, then we might test the low set in the first half of February at about $431.

Traders said investment funds were building short positions on the expectation of further price declines.

Conditions in the U.S. Midwest are said to be the best in 15 years and there is speculation crops could establish new record high yields.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture issues its monthly supply and demand reports on Friday.

Soyoil futures fell about two percent today on poor demand, which was highlighted by heavy deliveries ahead of July contract expiration. Traders also noted weakness in Malaysian palm oil.

Palm was reacting to the weakness in soyoil. It also was positioning ahead of supply, demand and stocks figures and July 1-10 Malaysian palm oil export data due on Thursday.Wheat on U.S. exchanges fell to new four year lows on U.S. winter wheat harvest progress, generally good spring wheat conditions in the northern U.S., prospects for a good European harvest and tough competition from low priced eastern European and Black Sea wheat. ICE Futures Canada adjusted its milling wheat contract.Corn also hit four year lows on the good conditions in the Midwest. Corn is about to start its pollination phase and the forecast is for relatively cool temperatures, which are considered favourable for yield prospects.Reuters reported that Asian grain buyers are hold back on purchases on expectation that prices will continue to fall.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2014 468.20 -13.50 -2.80%

Canola Nov 2014 449.10 -13.50 -2.92%

Canola Jan 2015 451.60 -12.60 -2.71%

Canola Mar 2015 450.50 -12.20 -2.64%

Canola May 2015 447.90 -10.50 -2.29%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014 193.00 +6.00 +3.21%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 194.00 +7.00 +3.74%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 200.00 +7.00 +3.63%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014 239.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 235.10 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 241.10 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2014 125.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 132.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 134.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2014 1334.5 +4.75 +0.36%

Soybeans Aug 2014 1246.5 -2 -0.16%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1132 -8.75 -0.77%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1103.75 -12.5 -1.12%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1112 -13 -1.16%

Soybeans Mar 2015 1119.75 -14.25 -1.26%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014 439.5 +2.2 +0.50%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 406.1 +4.2 +1.05%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014 376.1 +1.6 +0.43%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014 37.04 -0.76 -2.01%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 37.14 -0.74 -1.95%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014 37.21 -0.73 -1.92%

Corn Jul 2014 404 -4.25 -1.04%

Corn Sep 2014 391.25 -7 -1.76%

Corn Dec 2014 398 -6.25 -1.55%

Corn Mar 2015 409.5 -6.25 -1.50%

Corn May 2015 417.5 -6.25 -1.47%

Oats Jul 2014 357.75 -32.25 -8.27%

Oats Sep 2014 337.75 -12.25 -3.50%

Oats Dec 2014 329.75 -10.75 -3.16%

Oats Mar 2015 319.75 -9.75 -2.96%

Oats May 2015 309.75 -11.5 -3.58%

Wheat Jul 2014 539.5 -5.75 -1.05%

Wheat Sep 2014 551.25 -5 -0.90%

Wheat Dec 2014 575 -5.25 -0.90%

Wheat Mar 2015 597.5 -5.25 -0.87%

Wheat May 2015 613 -5.25 -0.85%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 640 -12 -1.84%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 647.25 -9.75 -1.48%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 658 -9 -1.35%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 672.5 -7.25 -1.07%

Spring Wheat May 2015 679.5 -7.75 -1.13%

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 660.75 -14.25 -2.11%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 653.25 -11 -1.66%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 664 -10.75 -1.59%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 671.25 -10.25 -1.50%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015 674.75 -9.5 -1.39%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.11 at $102.29 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 93.90 cents US, up from 93.69 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0650 Cdn.

The Federal Reserve has begun detailing how it plans to ease the U.S. economy out of an era of loose monetary policy.Minutes released from its meeting last month showed it plans to end its bond buying program in October. Members appear to be near agreement on a plan to manage interest rates in the future, however, analysts found little to suggest the Fed will move forward its first interest rate increase, currently expected in the middle of 2015.In early unofficial tallies — The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index closed up 78.01 points or 0.52 percent at 15,215.19.The Dow Jones industrial average rose 78.99 points or 0.47 percent, to close at 16,985.61.The S&P 500 gained 9.12 points or 0.46 percent, to finish at 1,972.83.The Nasdaq Composite added 27.57 points or 0.63 percent, to close at 4,419.03.