USDA report prompts gains in Canola

Winnipeg (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures Canada canola market ended higher on Thursday, as a new report from the USDA indicated ending stocks of U.S. soybeans would be smaller than expected.

Many analysts had predicted ending stocks would rise slightly, but the agency pegged them at 415 million bushels in 2018/19. That compares to expectations of 530 million bushels in 2017/18.

Meanwhile, slow farmer selling and dry conditions in parts of the eastern Prairies were bullish for futures.

However, strength in the Canadian dollar was bearish for canola, as it made the commodity less attractive on the international market.

The November contract ran into technical resistance at the C$520 per tonne mark.

Around 9,447 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 16,549 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,738 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Soybean futures chalked up modest gains on Thursday after the United States Department of Agriculture lowered its estimate for domestic ending stocks of new crop and old crop soybeans.

Some analysts had predicted that soybean stocks for the 2018/19 crop would actually increase, but the agency shocked everyone by pegging the figure at 415 million bushels. That compares to 530 million a year earlier.

Corn futures finished slightly lower on Thursday.

The USDA pegged world corn stocks at 159.2 million tonnes for the 2018/19 crop year. That compares to 191.9 million in 2017/18.

The agency pegged China’s domestic corn stocks for 2018/19 at 60.5 million tonnes, which compares to 80 million tonnes the previous year.

Chicago wheat ended weaker as the USDA estimated that ending stocks of U.S. old crop would rise slightly to 1.07 billion bushels.

The agency predicted that wheat production would rise in the U.S. despite drought in the U.S. Southern Plains. The agency pegged all wheat production at 1.82 billion bushels, which was up five percent from the previous year.

On the other side, the USDA said hard red winter wheat could like suffer lower yields in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas due to the dry conditions.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 30 cents at US$57.46 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around U78.32 cents, up 1.12 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2768, down C$.0100 from the previous day.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola May 18 532.70s +2.80 +0.53%

Canola Jul 18 533.20s +2.80 +0.53%

Canola Nov 18 519.50s +1.70 +0.33%

Canola Jan 19 524.10s +1.50 +0.29%

Canola Mar 19 526.50s +1.40 +0.27%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 18 1013-2s +6-0 +0.60%

Soybeans Jul 18 1021-2s +5-4 +0.54%

Soybeans Aug 18 1024-6s +5-4 +0.54%

Soybeans Sep 18 1027-2s +6-4 +0.64%

Soybeans Nov 18 1031-0s +6-6 +0.66%

 

Soybean Meal May 18 390.5s +1.3 +0.33%

Soybean Meal Jul 18 386.1s +0.3 +0.08%

Soybean Meal Aug 18 383.9s +1.6 +0.42%

 

Soybean Oil May 18 30.98s +0.11 +0.36%

Soybean Oil Jul 18 31.13s +0.10 +0.32%

Soybean Oil Aug 18 31.25s +0.11 +0.35%

 

Corn May 18 394-6s unch unch

Corn Jul 18 402-0s -0-6 -0.19%

Corn Sep 18 410-2s -0-6 -0.18%

Corn Dec 18 419-4s unch unch

Corn Mar 19 428-0s unch unch

 

Oats May 18 232-0s +3-2 +1.42%

Oats Jul 18 242-6s +2-2 +0.94%

Oats Sep 18 246-2s +1-4 +0.61%

Oats Dec 18 256-6s +1-4 +0.59%

Oats Mar 19 260-6s +1-4 +0.58%

 

Wheat May 18 507-6s -6-6 -1.31%

Wheat Jul 18 506-4s -4-0 -0.78%

Wheat Sep 18 523-0s -4-2 -0.81%

Wheat Dec 18 544-0s -4-6 -0.87%

Wheat Mar 19 562-4s -5-2 -0.92%

 

Spring Wheat May 18 615-2s unch unch

Spring Wheat Jul 18 609-0s -2-2 -0.37%

Spring Wheat Sep 18 615-6s -2-0 -0.32%

Spring Wheat Dec 18 627-6s -1-6 -0.28%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 639-0s -2-4 -0.39%

 

Hard Red Wheat May 18 507-4s -4-4 -0.88%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 527-0s -4-4 -0.85%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 545-4s -4-2 -0.77%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 570-6s -4-6 -0.83%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 589-4s -4-6 -0.80%

 

Live Cattle Jun 18 107.525s +1.850 +1.75%

Live Cattle Aug 18 104.300s +0.925 +0.89%

Live Cattle Oct 18 107.250s +0.500 +0.47%

 

Feeder Cattle May 18 138.600s +1.450 +1.06%

Feeder Cattle Aug 18 143.950s +1.250 +0.88%

Feeder Cattle Sep 18 144.125s +0.950 +0.66%

 

Lean Hogs May 18 65.475s -0.450 -0.68%

Lean Hogs Jun 18 77.325s +0.750 +0.98%

Lean Hogs Jul 18 78.075s +0.475 +0.61%

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