USDA predicts tightening soybean stocks, but more wheat

Winnipeg (CNS Canada) – World soybean and corn ending stocks are expected to be tighter than earlier thought, while projected wheat stocks were raised in the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In a report released April 10 the USDA lowered its global soybean ending stocks forecast for the current 2017/18 marketing year to 90.8 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 94.4 million. That would be down from the 96.7 million tonne carryout seen in 2016/17, but still well above the 78.5 million tonnes reported in 2015/16.

A seven million tonne drop in the expectations on the size of Argentina’s crop more than made up for a two million tonne increase in the Brazilian production forecast. The USDA now sees Argentina’s soybean crop at only 40.0 million tonnes, which compares with the March estimate of 47.0 million and the year-ago level of 57.8 million. At 115.0 million tonnes, Brazil’s crop is now expected to be slightly above last year’s 114.1 million tonne crop.

Projected world corn ending stocks were lowered to 197.8 million tonnes, from 199.2 million in March. That compares with the 230.9 million tonnes carried over the previous year.

Argentina’s corn production is now forecast at 33.0 million tonnes, down three million from an earlier estimate and well off last year’s 41.0 million tonne crop. Brazil’s corn production was revised to 92.0 million tonnes, which would be down 2.5 million from an earlier estimate and below the 2016/17 crop of 98.5 million tonnes.

World wheat ending stocks for 2017/18 are now forecast at 271.2 million tonnes by the USDA, which compares to an earlier estimate of 268.9 million and the year-ago level of 254.6 million.

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