Trade issues still hitting canola

WINNIPEG – Intercontinental Exchange Futures canola contracts were down on Thursday, but recovered from larger losses earlier in the day.

The July contract closed at C$436.70 per tonne after hitting C$434.00 per tonne at one point in the session. The November contract closed at C$450.30 after it fell to C$447.40.

A trader stated canola prices are still too high, as they are approximately C$20 per tonne more than soybean contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade. Despite canola prices pushing downward over the last few months, the trader said it’s difficult for canola to compete with other oilseeds.

However, one report said that some traders want to avoid canola prices going any lower until the 2019 crop has been established.

There were 12,297 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 17,285 contracts changed hands.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 436.70 dn 0.80
Nov 450.30 dn 1.10
Jan 456.70 dn 0.90
Mar 462.70 dn 0.70

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Thursday, as uncertainty continues to hover over United States/China trade talks.

The July and August contracts fell 14 to 14.5 U.S. cents. Also, there were losses in soyoil and soymeal in trading on Thursday.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued its export sales report today, and soybeans were far below market expectations. Approximately 146,500 tonnes of soybeans were sold and almost 44.99 million tonnes so far this crop year. This time last year, about 55.14 million tonnes had been sold.

The United Nations reported today that global meat production will be down for the first time in 20 years. Production for 2019 will drop due to Africa swine fever in China, in which tens of millions of hogs have been culled to help stop the spread of the disease that’s almost always fatal to hogs. Chinese officials ordered testing for African swine fever at the country’s 10,000 slaughterhouses to be completed by July 1.

CORN futures were weaker on Thursday, also due to pessimism towards U.S./China trade talks.

In addition, the USDA reported corn export sales were below expectations. The markets predicted at least 550,000 tonnes, but USDA said 293,500 tonnes were sold. Corn sales to date have amounted to about 46.36 million tonnes, under the 51.46 million tonnes this time last year.

High water in the U.S., especially along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers has hampered shipping. For the week ending May 4, less than 3.27 million tonnes were shipped on the Mississippi, a decline of 43 per cent from the five-year average. On the Ohio, 3.63 million tonnes were shipped, a drop of 11 per cent from the five-year average.

Movement by rail increased 102 per cent year-over-year with nearly 14,640 cars.

WHEAT futures were weaker on Thursday, with Chicago wheat having incurred greater losses in trading compared to Kansas City and Minneapolis.

Technical selling and spillover from soybeans were responsible for the drop in prices today.

Ahead of the USDA’s supply and demand report, the markets have predicted wheat production to hit 51.98 million tonnes in 2019, and MarketsFarm has estimated 52.5 million tonnes. Both would be higher than 2018’s production of 51.17 million tonnes.

Wheat sales met market expectations for this week. The USDA reported sales of 502,900 tonnes. Also, wheat sales year-over-year are up, with 25.55 million tonnes compared to 23.54 million tonnes.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 42 cents at US$61.70 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.17 cents, down from 74.26 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3483.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola May 19 436.10s -1.50 -0.34%

Canola Jul 19 436.70s -0.80 -0.18%

Canola Nov 19 450.30s -1.10 -0.24%

Canola Jan 20 456.70s -0.90 -0.20%

Canola Mar 20 462.70s -0.70 -0.15%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean May 19 800-2s -14-0 -1.72%

Soybean Jul 19 812-6s -14-4 -1.75%

Soybean Aug 19 819-4s -14-0 -1.68%

Soybean Sep 19 825-0s -14-2 -1.70%

Soybean Nov 19 835-6s -14-6 -1.73%

 

Soybean Meal May 19 285.3s -3.4 -1.18%

Soybean Meal Jul 19 289.1s -3.8 -1.30%

Soybean Meal Aug 19 291.0s -3.6 -1.22%

 

Soybean Oil May 19 26.34s -0.37 -1.39%

Soybean Oil Jul 19 26.63s -0.37 -1.37%

Soybean Oil Aug 19 26.77s -0.37 -1.36%

 

Corn May 19 344-4s -10-6 -3.03%

Corn Jul 19 353-2s -11-0 -3.02%

Corn Sep 19 362-0s -10-2 -2.75%

Corn Dec 19 372-6s -9-4 -2.49%

Corn Mar 20 386-6s -8-2 -2.09%

 

Oats May 19 298-4s +3-4 +1.19%

Oats Jul 19 282-0s +3-4 +1.26%

Oats Sep 19 271-6s +3-4 +1.30%

Oats Dec 19 262-4s +3-0 +1.16%

Oats Mar 20 261-2s +3-4 +1.36%

 

Wheat May 19 421-6s -9-4 -2.20%

Wheat Jul 19 429-4s -9-4 -2.16%

Wheat Sep 19 438-4s -9-0 -2.01%

Wheat Dec 19 452-6s -8-4 -1.84%

Wheat Mar 20 467-4s -8-0 -1.68%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 19 510-0s +1-6 +0.34%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 517-2s -3-2 -0.62%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 525-6s -3-2 -0.61%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 539-2s -2-6 -0.51%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 552-2s -3-2 -0.59%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 19 390-0s -4-2 -1.08%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 397-6s -5-6 -1.43%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 408-4s -5-6 -1.39%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 428-6s -5-6 -1.32%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 448-6s -5-6 -1.27%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 19 111.950s +0.875 +0.79%

Live Cattle Aug 19 107.600s +0.200 +0.19%

Live Cattle Oct 19 107.650s unch unch

 

Feeder Cattle May 19 136.250s +0.475 +0.35%

Feeder Cattle Aug 19 144.475s +0.600 +0.42%

Feeder Cattle Sep 19 145.275s +0.425 +0.29%

 

Lean Hogs May 19 83.750s +0.175 +0.21%

Lean Hogs Jun 19 90.000s +1.450 +1.64%

Lean Hogs Jul 19 90.975s +0.225 +0.25%

 

About the author

Glen Hallick - MarketsFarm's recent articles

Markets at a glance

Copyright © 2019. All market data is provided by Barchart Market Data Solutions. Information is provided 'as is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice. To see all exchange delays and terms of use, please see disclaimer.

explore

Stories from our other publications