Soyoil losses still a drag on canola futures

Winnipeg, (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Tuesday, with losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil behind some of the spillover selling pressure.

News that the United States would delay imposing 10 per cent tariffs on some Chinese imports contributed to the weakness in canola, according to a trader, as easing tensions between those two countries would likely see more U.S. soybean sales at the expense of vegetable oil business.

Relatively favourable weather across much of Western Canada, despite dryness in some areas and recent cooler temperatures, also weighed on values.

Bearish technical signals added to the softer tone, as fund traders continued to add to their large short positions.

About 18,886 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 17,615 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,050 of the contracts traded.

CORN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Tuesday, seeing follow-through selling after Monday’s limit-down losses.

The United States Department of Agriculture unexpectedly raised its yield forecast for the U.S. corn crop to 169.5 bushels per acre and pegged total production at 13.9 billion bushels, in a report released Monday. Average pre-report guesses had been for much smaller yields and a crop closer to 13 billion bushels than 14 billion.

Losses in the cattle and hog markets were also bearish for the feed grain on Tuesday.

However, crop development is running behind normal, according to the latest weekly report, with 57 per cent in good-to-excellent condition.

SOYBEAN futures were higher on Tuesday, correcting after yesterday’s losses.

U.S. soybean production is expected to be down 18 per cent on the year, according to the USDA, at 3.7 billion bushels.

The possibility of improving trade with China was also supportive, although any action beyond the latest headlines remains to be seen.

Weekly condition ratings for the U.S. soybean crop were left unchanged at 54 per cent good to excellent.

WHEAT futures were steady to lower, as Monday’s large world and U.S. wheat production estimates remained bearish.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest was 89 per cent complete in the latest weekly report, which is behind the average of 96 per cent done. The spring wheat harvest was only 8 per cent done, well off the 30 per cent average for this time of year.

Condition ratings for the spring wheat still in the ground declined 3 points, to 69 per cent good-to-excellent.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up $1.99 at US$56.77 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down .01 cents US75.55. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3236.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Name / Contract Last Change % Change

Canola Nov 19            448.90s           -3.50    -0.77%

Canola Jan 20  457.20s           -3.90    -0.85%

Canola Mar 20            464.60s           -3.90    -0.83%

Canola May 20           470.80s           -3.80    -0.80%

Canola Jul 20  476.60s           -3.50    -0.73%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

Chicago

Soybean Aug 19          872-0s +10-4  +1.22%

Soybean Sep 19          876-2s +9-4    +1.10%

Soybean Nov 19         889-0s +9-6    +1.11%

Soybean Jan 20           902-0s +9-2    +1.04%

Soybean Mar 20         914-0s +8-6    +0.97%

 

Soybean Meal Aug 19            297.8s +5.9     +2.02%

Soybean Meal Sep 19 299.2s +5.8     +1.98%

Soybean Meal Oct 19 300.9s +5.7     +1.93%

 

Soybean Oil Aug 19    29.17s -0.47    -1.59%

Soybean Oil Sep 19    29.17s -0.49    -1.65%

Soybean Oil Oct 19    29.29s -0.50    -1.68%

 

Corn Sep 19    366-0s -19-2   -5.00%

Corn Dec 19    376-4s -16-2   -4.14%

Corn Mar 20   390-0s -13-2   -3.29%

Corn May 20  398-6s -10-2   -2.51%

Corn Jul 20     404-4s -8-2     -2.00%

 

Oats Sep 19    271-6s unch    unch

Oats Dec 19    266-0s -0-6     -0.28%

Oats Mar 20   270-2s -1-0     -0.37%

Oats May 20  270-0s -0-6     -0.28%

Oats Jul 20      270-6s -0-4     -0.18%

 

Wheat Sep 19  472-0s +0-2    +0.05%

Wheat Dec 19 475-6s -0-4     -0.10%

Wheat Mar 20 483-2s -0-6     -0.15%

Wheat May 20            489-2s -0-4     -0.10%

Wheat Jul 20   494-4s -0-4     -0.10%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 19  503-2s -6-0     -1.18%

Spring Wheat Dec 19  516-4s -5-4     -1.05%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 531-6s -5-2     -0.98%

Spring Wheat May 20            542-4s -4-4     -0.82%

Spring Wheat Jul 20    552-4s -4-4     -0.81%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19         383-4s -8-6     -2.23%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19         400-4s -8-4     -2.08%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20        417-0s -8-2     -1.94%

Hard Red Wheat May 20       427-6s -8-4     -1.95%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 20           438-0s -8-2     -1.85%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle (Pit) Aug 19         100.550s         -4.500  -4.28%

Live Cattle (Pit) Oct 19          99.250s           -4.500  -4.34%

Live Cattle (Pit) Dec 19          103.950s         -4.500  -4.15%

 

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Aug 19      127.725s         -6.675  -4.97%

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Sep 19      127.200s         -6.750  -5.04%

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Oct 19      127.550s         -6.200  -4.64%

 

Lean Hogs (Pit) Aug 19          79.000s           -0.175  -0.22%

Lean Hogs (Pit) Oct 19           64.575s           -2.500  -3.73%

Lean Hogs (Pit) Dec 19          63.025s           -0.750  -1.18%

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