Soy, corn up following U.S. stocks report, wheat down

WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) – U.S. soybean and corn stockpiles are massive, but not quite as huge as the trade expected.

Corn and soybean futures were trading a little higher following the U.S. Department of Agriculture stocks report issued today, but wheat was down as its stocks were higher than the midpoint of trade expectations.

Also, the forecast of the 2017 wheat crop was at the high end of expectations.

In its quarterly stocks report, the USDA reported that domestic corn ending stocks rose 32 percent from a year earlier to 2.295 million bushels, their highest level since 1988.

Soybean ending stocks rose to 0.301 billion bu., which was 53 percent higher than Sept. 1, 2016, and a 10-year high.

The midpoint of the trade forecast for corn was 2.353 billion bu. and for soybeans was 0.338 billion, in a Reuters poll. The USDA’s estimates were below the lowest forecast in the range of trade estimates

Corn and soybean use during June, July and August was the second highest ever for the period, coming in just below record levels set during the summer of 2016.

Wheat stocks as of Sept. 1 dropped to 2.253 billion bu. from 2.545 billion bu. as U.S. production dropped off amid rising global competition. However, that was higher than the trade’s forecast of 2.205 billion.

The lower-than-expected soybean stocks figure stemmed in part from a downward revision in USDA’s estimate of the 2016 soy harvest. USDA lowered its assessment of the crop by 10.6 million bu., to 4.296 billion.

USDA also trimmed the national soybean yield by 0.1 bu. per acre to 52.0 bu. and cut harvested acres by 40,000.

Analysts, on average, expected the 2016 soy crop would be 4.305 billion bu..

Estimates for wheat stocks ranged from 2.083 billion bu. to 2.495 billion bu., with an average of 2.205 billion bu.

2017 WHEAT

The USDA in its Small Grains Report pegged the 2017-18 wheat crop at 1.741 billion bu., which would be the smallest in 15 years. That forecast was within the range of analysts’ estimates but above the average, which was 1.718 billion bu.

It trimmed its estimate of the winter wheat crop but raised the estimate for the spring wheat and durum crops.

It pegged spring wheat at 416 million bushels, up from 402 million in the August forecast. That was toward the high end of the trade’s forecasts.

Durum was pegged at 55 million bushels, up from 51 milllion in August. That too was at the high end of the trade’s forecast.


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