Small drop for canola; wheat fairly steady

ICE Futures canola contracts were weaker on Thursday, although the market finished well off its session lows as traders reacted to activity in the Chicago Board of Trade soy market.

Updated supply/demand numbers from the United States Department of Agriculture were bearish for soybeans, and early selling pressure there spilled into canola.

Large supplies in the commercial pipeline added to the softer tone in canola, with end users only showing interest on a scale-down basis.

The January contract briefly traded below the C$480 per tonne mark, but managed to settle well above that chart point as CBOT soybeans bounced off of their session lows to settle near unchanged.

About 10,862 canola contracts traded, which compares with Wednesday when 11,997 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 3,282 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of trade settled with only small losses in the most active contracts, recovering from sharp declines earlier in the day as the market digested the latest supply/demand numbers from the United States Department of Agriculture.

The USDA lowered its U.S. soybean production estimate for the year by 90 million bushels, to 4.6 billion, but also cut its export forecast by 160 million bushels. As a result, the ending stocks forecast climbed by 70 million bushels to 955 million which was well above average trade guesses.

World soybean ending stocks were up by 2 million tonnes from the October estimate, at 112.08 million.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales of about 390,000 tonnes were at the lower end of market expectations – putting additional pressure on the futures.

CORN was firmer at the close after trading to both sides of unchanged.

The USDA lowered its yield projection for the U.S. corn crop – bringing the production estimate down by 152 million bushels, to 14.6 billion. Ending stocks were lowered by 77 million, to 1.736 billion bushels.

However, world corn carryout was revised sharply higher, with the 307.5 million tonne forecast nearly double the October estimate.

Weekly U.S. corn export sales of about 700,000 tonnes were up from the previous week and in line with trade estimates.

WHEAT futures were steady to lower. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were lowered by 9 million bushels, to 949 million. However, expected world wheat ending stocks were raised by 6.5 million tonnes, to 266.7 million.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 660,000 tonnes were above average trade estimates and provided some support.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down $1 at US$60.67 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.25 cents, down from 76.36 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3114.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 18 474.70s -1.20 -0.25%

Canola Jan 19 481.80s -1.20 -0.25%

Canola Mar 19 489.40s -1.30 -0.26%

Canola May 19 496.90s -1.20 -0.24%

Canola Jul 19 501.60s -1.10 -0.22%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 18 867-4s -0-2 -0.03%

Soybeans Jan 19 879-0s -0-4 -0.06%

Soybeans Mar 19 892-0s -0-2 -0.03%

Soybeans May 19 905-2s -0-2 -0.03%

Soybeans Jul 19 918-2s -0-2 -0.03%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 18 306.1s -1.9 -0.62%

Soybean Meal Jan 19 308.0s -1.7 -0.55%

Soybean Meal Mar 19 310.7s -1.3 -0.42%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 18 28.02s -0.18 -0.64%

Soybean Oil Jan 19 28.22s -0.18 -0.63%

Soybean Oil Mar 19 28.51s -0.18 -0.63%

 

Corn Dec 18 373-4s +1-2 +0.34%

Corn Mar 19 385-2s +1-4 +0.39%

Corn May 19 393-2s +1-6 +0.45%

Corn Jul 19 399-2s +1-6 +0.44%

Corn Sep 19 401-0s +3-2 +0.82%

 

Oats Dec 18 286-6s -0-4 -0.17%

Oats Mar 19 283-0s +3-6 +1.34%

Oats May 19 282-4s +3-4 +1.25%

Oats Jul 19 283-0s +3-6 +1.34%

Oats Sep 19 279-2s +3-6 +1.36%

 

Wheat Dec 18 507-6s -2-4 -0.49%

Wheat Mar 19 519-6s -2-6 -0.53%

Wheat May 19 530-2s -2-6 -0.52%

Wheat Jul 19 539-6s -2-0 -0.37%

Wheat Sep 19 551-6s -1-2 -0.23%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18 580-0s -0-6 -0.13%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 584-6s -0-4 -0.09%

Spring Wheat May 19 592-2s -0-6 -0.13%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 599-4s unch unch

Spring Wheat Sep 19 606-6s -0-2 -0.04%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 497-2s -5-0 -1.00%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 519-4s -4-2 -0.81%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 533-2s -3-2 -0.61%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 544-2s -1-0 -0.18%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 559-2s -0-6 -0.13%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 18 116.550s +0.450 +0.39%

Live Cattle Feb 19 119.875s +0.275 +0.23%

Live Cattle Apr 19 121.875s +0.550 +0.45%

 

Feeder Cattle Nov 18 150.175s +0.250 +0.17%

Feeder Cattle Jan 19 146.275s +0.450 +0.31%

Feeder Cattle Mar 19 144.475s +0.300 +0.21%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 18 55.625s +0.100 +0.18%

Lean Hogs Feb 19 60.125s -1.100 -1.80%

Lean Hogs Apr 19 66.775s -0.650 -0.96%

 

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By Phil Franz-Warkentin Commodity News Service Canada's recent articles

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