Rising S. American soy forecasts have little market impact

South American crop estimates are rising again, but the news had little effect on crop futures markets Wednesday.

Crop futures barely moved as the market continues in limbo, awaiting the USDA prospective plantings report March 31.

Old crop canola edged lower with May closing at $460.60, down $2.10 a tonne.

New crop November closed at $449.60, up $2.50 a tonne.

Prices in the soybean complex were little changed even though Brazilian analyst Agroconsult increased its estimate for the 2014-15 soybean crop now being harvested to 95.8 million tonnes from 94.7 million tonnes a month ago.

Last month analysts were trimming Brazil’s crop a little because of dry weather in some regions in January, but it appears excellent yields in other regions are making up for that problem.

And Reuters reported that Argentine growers have harvested about five percent of this year’s soy, with high yields in the central farm belt compensating for flood damage in northern fields.

Analysts say that is keeping the country on track for a record crop.

Forecasts for Argentina’s crop range from 56 million tonnes to 60 million tonnes, exceeding last year’s crop, which itself was a record at 53.4 million tonnes.

Analysts expect the USDA plantings survey report next week to show that U.S. farmers plan to plant 85.92 million acres of soybeans this spring, up from 83.70 million a year ago.

Wheat futures declined a few pennies a bushel on technical selling and forecasts for scattered showers in the U.S. plains,although the driest areas were expected to miss the moisture.

Corn edged up a penny or two mostly on technical factors.

Traders expect the USDA planting report will show American farmers plan to seed less corn this year.

U.S. stock markets were lower in afternoon trading, with the Dow down about 1.5 percent with weakness in biotech and semiconductor shares.

Kraft Foods shares soared after a merger agreement with H.J. Heinz Co, owned by 3G Capital and Berkshire Hathaway. It will be the third largest food company in North America.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite was down close to one percent.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.70 to US$49.21 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.92 cents, down from 79.93 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2513.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2015       460.60       -2.10       -0.45%

Canola Jul 2015       460.10       -0.20       -0.04%

Canola Nov 2015       449.60       +2.50       +0.56%

Canola Jan 2016       450.60       +1.80       +0.40%

Canola Mar 2016       452.50       +1.80       +0.40%

 

Milling Wheat May 2015       238.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015       239.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015       243.00       unch       0.00%

 

Durum Wheat May 2015       323.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015       313.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015       318.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley May 2015       202.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2015       202.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2015       187.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2015       978.75       -3       -0.31%

Soybeans Jul 2015       982.5       -4       -0.41%

Soybeans Aug 2015       981       -4.5       -0.46%

Soybeans Sep 2015       964.75       -5       -0.52%

Soybeans Nov 2015       957.25       -5.25       -0.55%

Soybeans Jan 2016       962.25       -5.25       -0.54%

 

Soybean Meal May 2015       324.5       -1.8       -0.55%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015       322.7       -1.5       -0.46%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015       321       -1.5       -0.47%

 

Soybean Oil May 2015       31.04       -0.07       -0.23%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015       31.26       -0.06       -0.19%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015       31.31       -0.06       -0.19%

 

Corn May 2015       395       +1.75       +0.45%

Corn Jul 2015       403       +1.75       +0.44%

Corn Sep 2015       410.25       +1.5       +0.37%

Corn Dec 2015       418       +0.75       +0.18%

Corn Mar 2016       426.75       +0.5       +0.12%

 

Oats May 2015       282.25       +0.25       +0.09%

Oats Jul 2015       284       +1.75       +0.62%

Oats Sep 2015       284.75       unch       0.00%

Oats Dec 2015       284.25       -1.25       -0.44%

Oats Mar 2016       287.75       -0.5       -0.17%

 

Wheat May 2015       519       -4.5       -0.86%

Wheat Jul 2015       523.75       -4.5       -0.85%

Wheat Sep 2015       533.25       -4.25       -0.79%

Wheat Dec 2015       548       -4       -0.72%

Wheat Mar 2016       561.25       -4       -0.71%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2015       580.75       -1       -0.17%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       586.25       -0.5       -0.09%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015       594       -0.5       -0.08%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015       604.25       -1       -0.17%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016       616.25       -1       -0.16%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       563       -2.25       -0.40%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       568.25       -2.75       -0.48%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015       578.75       -2.75       -0.47%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015       592.5       -3       -0.50%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016       604       -2.5       -0.41%

 

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