Rise in loonie curbs canola purchasing

WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts finished steady to lower Monday, spurred on by the rise in the Canadian dollar.

By mid-afternoon Monday, the loonie climbed to 76.64 U.S. cents, compared to Friday’s close of 76.56. The stronger dollar made canola less attractive to importers.

However, prices were slightly higher for most of the session. There was anticipation that the Chicago soy complex could move up tomorrow when they reopen after Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

The belief is China may soon begin its purchases of the additional U.S. agricultural products agreed to in the Phase One trade deal signed last week. That purchasing could lead spillover into canola, according to a trader.

But he cautioned that China could delay their purchases until there are more South American soybeans on the global market.

There were 10,968 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 17,596 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,264 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Mar 481.00 unchanged
May 489.80 up 0.10
Jul 494.10 dn 0.60
Nov 496.60 dn 1.20

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will issue its weekly export inspection report on Jan. 21 and its weekly export sales report on Jan. 24.

Despite the U.S./China trade war, U.S. farm incomes rose 10 per cent higher year-over-year to reach their highest levels in six years, according to the USDA. A good portion of that was the tens of billions the Trump administration paid out to farmers hurt by the dispute.

Dry conditions in South America could affect soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil. Although both countries were forecast to have record soybean production this year, dryness in some parts of each country might see amounts revised slightly downward.

Relations between India and Malaysian continued on a sour note, as the trade ministers from each country won’t meet each other at the world economic forum this week in Davos, Switzerland. After the Malaysian government criticized the Indian government for its highly controversial citizenship law, the latter sought to halt palm oil imports from Malaysia. India’s new citizenship law is said to discriminate against Muslims.

Although a tender from India for 6.9 million bushels of non-GMO corn closed on Jan. 14, the order wasn’t filled. The Metals and Minerals Trading Company of India indicated it would still consider offers. Shipment was slated for Feb. 10.

South Korea issued a tender for 2.6 million bushels of corn, with arrival in April.

There has been talk of China purchasing more U.S. wheat, but no deals have yet to surface. Otherwise the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects the 2019/20 marketing year to end with a record high global carryover.

Farmers in India are set to plant a record amount of wheat acres in 2020, with projects of nearly 81.6 million acres. Post-monsoon rains maintained adequate soil moisture levels to allow for greater planting.

However farmers in the European Union are expected to plant fewer acres of wheat this year due to wet conditions in parts of the United Kingdom, France and Italy. Also, dry conditions in Spain may reduce durum acres. MarketsFarm projects 62.89 million wheat acres in the EU, down from more than 64.25 million acres in 2018/19.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were US$58.81 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down .01 cents US76.61. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3053.

Name / Contract High Low Last Change Settlement
Canola Mar 2020 483.10 480.30 481.00 unch 481.00
Canola May 2020 491.60 489.00 489.80 0.10 489.80
Canola Jul 2020 496.40 493.80 494.10 -0.60 494.10
Canola Nov 2020 498.90 496.10 496.80 -1.00 496.80
Canola Jan 2021 504.10 501.80 502.20 -0.60 502.20
Soybean Mar 2020 933.50 920.00 929.75 5.75 929.75
Soybean May 2020 946.50 933.00 943.00 5.75 943.00
Soybean Jul 2020 959.00 946.00 955.50 5.50 955.50
Soybean Aug 2020 962.75 950.50 959.25 5.25 959.25
Soybean Sep 2020 961.00 950.25 958.00 5.00 958.00
Soybean Nov 2020 964.00 953.50 960.50 4.25 960.50
Soybean Meal Mar 2020 302.00 299.60 300.60 unch 300.60
Soybean Meal May 2020 306.70 304.20 305.20 unch 305.20
Soybean Meal Jul 2020 311.20 308.80 309.70 unch 309.70
Soybean Oil Mar 2020 33.42 32.75 33.35 0.32 33.35
Soybean Oil May 2020 33.74 33.10 33.67 0.30 33.67
Soybean Oil Jul 2020 34.08 33.45 34.02 0.28 34.02
Corn Mar 2020 389.50 376.75 389.25 13.75 389.25
Corn May 2020 395.75 383.75 395.25 12.75 395.25
Corn Jul 2020 401.25 390.25 401.00 12.00 401.00
Corn Sep 2020 400.50 391.75 400.25 9.75 400.25
Corn Dec 2020 403.00 395.50 402.75 8.75 402.75
Oats Mar 2020 312.00 305.75 311.75 6.25 311.75
Oats May 2020 307.00 302.00 306.75 5.75 306.75
Oats Jul 2020 297.75 297.75 297.75 7.75 297.75
Oats Sep 2020 282.00 282.00 282.00 1.50 282.00
Oats Dec 2020 272.50 270.75 272.50 2.00 272.50
Wheat Mar 2020 572.50 564.25 570.50 5.25 570.50
Wheat May 2020 573.25 565.75 571.25 5.00 571.25
Wheat Jul 2020 573.25 566.25 570.50 3.75 570.50
Wheat Sep 2020 578.25 571.75 575.75 3.75 575.75
Wheat Dec 2020 586.00 580.00 583.75 3.25 583.75
Spring Wheat Mar 2020 561.50 548.75 560.00 9.75 560.00
Spring Wheat May 2020 570.00 558.00 568.50 9.25 568.50
Spring Wheat Jul 2020 576.00 565.75 575.25 8.50 575.25
Spring Wheat Sep 2020 583.50 574.50 583.00 8.00 583.00
Spring Wheat Dec 2020 595.00 586.00 594.00 7.25 594.00
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2020 496.00 480.50 494.25 9.50 494.25
Hard Red Wheat May 2020 503.00 488.25 501.50 9.25 501.50
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2020 510.75 496.00 509.25 9.25 509.25
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2020 519.00 504.75 517.50 9.25 517.50
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2020 529.75 516.25 528.50 8.75 528.50
Live Cattle (Pit) Feb 2020 126.35 126.35 126.35 0.23 126.35
Live Cattle (Pit) Apr 2020 127.25 127.25 127.25 0.83 127.25
Live Cattle (Pit) Jun 2020 119.20 119.20 119.20 0.35 119.20
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Jan 2020 145.35 145.35 145.35 -0.08 145.35
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Mar 2020 145.00 145.00 145.00 0.18 145.00
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Apr 2020 147.88 147.88 147.88 0.08 147.88
Lean Hogs (Pit) Feb 2020 67.68 67.68 67.68 0.80 67.68
Lean Hogs (Pit) Apr 2020 74.10 74.10 74.10 0.33 74.10
Lean Hogs (Pit) May 2020 80.70 80.70 80.70 -0.03 80.70

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