Rain cuts canola weather premium, futures lower

WINNIPEG – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were lower on Friday, as more rain has been forecast for the Prairies this weekend.

The Prairies received 15 to 65 millimeters of rain over most of the region this week. While the precipitation was helpful to struggling crops, it wasn’t enough to end dry conditions. However, the rainfall was enough to eliminate much of the weather premium canola was receiving on the market.

Statistics Canada releases its acreage report on June 26. The markets have pegged canola acres to be down 1 million acres from April’s report at 20.7 million. That would also be 2 million acres less from last year’s acreage.

As well, the agency has been expected to raise slightly its estimate of total wheat acres to 25.7 million acres, a gain of 30,000 from April’s report.
The Canadian dollar weaker at 75.69 U.S. cents by mid-afternoon Friday.

There were 18,637 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 34,483 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 14,046 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 453.40 dn 2.40
Nov 467.30 dn 2.40
Jan 474.60 dn 2.30
Mar 481.20 dn 1.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Friday, as export shipments continue to lag behind pace and due to the United States weather forecast. Prices lost between 12 and 14 cents per bushel.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported there remains approximately 11.0 million tonnes of soybean that has not left the country for overseas. Shipments at this point were 79 per cent of projections, compared to 90 per cent at this point last year.

There are forecasts for rain next week over the U.S. Midwest and Plains, with Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois to get the brunt of it.

The USDA releases its acreage report on June 28, and it’s expected to show an increase in soybean acres and a decrease in corn acres.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could go nowhere in the U.S. Congress. Democrats indicated they are prepared to stall the new trade agreement that is to succeed the North American Free Trade Agreement. Mexico ratified the trade pact earlier this week. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau commented Parliament has been scheduled to ratify the agreement before October’s federal election.

CORN futures were weaker on Friday, also due to timid export shipments and the forecast. Bids slid seven to eight cents per bushel.
Corn shipments reached 87 per cent of the USDA’s projections, compared to 99 per cent this time last year.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) pegged Argentina’s corn harvest at a little more than 44 per cent complete. That’s below the average pace of about 50 per cent.

FranceAgriMer reported the condition of France’s corn didn’t change very much. As of June 17, the crop rated as 81 good to excellent, down one point from the previous week.

WHEAT futures were down on Friday, due to spillover from soybeans and corn.

Chicago wheat lost a half cent to a penny per bushel. Minneapolis wheat slipped one to three cents, and Kansas City wheat dropped six to eight cents.
Wet conditions have continued to slow the U.S. winter wheat harvest, especially in Kansas, according to the USDA.

Farmers in Argentina are expected to plant slightly more wheat acres in 2019/20, according to that country’s government. The estimate called for about 16.10 million acres to be planted.

FranceAgriMer reported the condition of France’s soft wheat crop as 80 per cent good to excellent. Additionally, the consultancy firm reported France’s barley rated 75 per cent good to excellent, up one point from the previous week.

Russia’s winter wheat harvest has been underway, with reports of good yields. However, Russia, Ukraine and Europe have been getting

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 35 cents at US$57.43 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.69 cents, down from 75.81 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3212.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jul 19 453.40s -2.40 -0.53%

Canola Nov 19 467.30s -2.40 -0.51%

Canola Jan 20 474.60s -2.30 -0.48%

Canola Mar 20 481.20s -1.50 -0.31%

Canola May 20 486.20s -1.00 -0.21%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Jul 19 902-6s -12-6 -1.39%

Soybean Aug 19 908-4s -13-2 -1.44%

Soybean Sep 19 914-6s -13-2 -1.43%

Soybean Nov 19 927-4s -13-4 -1.43%

Soybean Jan 20 940-2s -13-0 -1.36%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 19 315.6s -7.4 -2.29%

Soybean Meal Aug 19 317.0s -7.2 -2.22%

Soybean Meal Sep 19 318.8s -7.1 -2.18%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 19 28.44s -0.15 -0.52%

Soybean Oil Aug 19 28.57s -0.15 -0.52%

Soybean Oil Sep 19 28.69s -0.14 -0.49%

 

Corn Jul 19 442-2s -7-6 -1.72%

Corn Sep 19 447-4s -7-2 -1.59%

Corn Dec 19 453-4s -7-4 -1.63%

Corn Mar 20 459-2s -7-0 -1.50%

Corn May 20 461-4s -6-4 -1.39%

 

Oats Jul 19 279-0s -4-6 -1.67%

Oats Sep 19 275-2s -5-4 -1.96%

Oats Dec 19 276-4s -6-4 -2.30%

Oats Mar 20 280-2s -6-4 -2.27%

Oats May 20 279-4s -6-4 -2.27%

 

Wheat Jul 19 526-0s -0-4 -0.09%

Wheat Sep 19 530-6s -1-0 -0.19%

Wheat Dec 19 541-4s unch unch

Wheat Mar 20 551-6s -0-4 -0.09%

Wheat May 20 554-0s -1-2 -0.23%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 19 536-0s -2-2 -0.42%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 544-0s -1-4 -0.27%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 556-6s -0-6 -0.13%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 570-6s -0-2 -0.04%

Spring Wheat May 20 578-6s -0-2 -0.04%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 452-4s -8-0 -1.74%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 464-4s -6-2 -1.33%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 486-4s -5-0 -1.02%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 507-2s -5-0 -0.98%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 519-4s -5-2 -1.00%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 19 106.550s -1.625 -1.50%

Live Cattle Aug 19 102.225s -1.725 -1.66%

Live Cattle Oct 19 104.150s -1.425 -1.35%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 19 133.675s -1.025 -0.76%

Feeder Cattle Sep 19 134.050s -1.325 -0.98%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 134.500s -1.325 -0.98%

 

Lean Hogs Jul 19 76.250s -3.000 -3.79%

Lean Hogs Aug 19 77.900s -3.000 -3.71%

Lean Hogs Oct 19 72.725s -3.000 -3.96%

 

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