Projection of lower corn, soy stockpiles helps canola

Winnipeg (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures Canada canola market finished slightly higher Tuesday, following the release of the USDA’s supply and demand estimates.

The USDA projected lower stockpiles of U.S. corn and soybeans, which was supportive for canola.

Recent weakness in the Canadian dollar helped prop up canola as it made the commodity more attractive on the international market.

There are some ideas the market is slightly oversold.

Losses in vegetable oil were bearish for prices.

The soybean crop in the U.S. is already looking like it will be massive, which undermined values.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Soybean futures finished little changed in technical trade on Tuesday.

The United States Department of Agriculture pegged soybean stockpiles at 385 million bushels in 2018/19, which was much lower than last year’s figure of 505 million bushels.

The agency pegged the 2017 soybean yield at 48.5 bushels an acre, which was down from the average estimate of 48.6 bushels.

Corn futures posted strong gains on Tuesday as the USDA drastically lowered this year’s stockpile number for the United States. The USDA says corn stockpiles in 2018/19 will fall to 1.58 billion bushels, down from last year’s figure of 2.1 billion.

Brazil’s agricultural agency Conab, pegged the country’s corn production at 85 million tonnes, down from the previous estimate of 89.5 million.

Favourable weather conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt weighed on the market.

Chicago wheat futures finished sharply higher on Tuesday, as the USDA lowered its estimate of Russian wheat production by 20 per cent.

According to the USDA, the country’s wheat output in 2018/19 will be 68.5 million tonnes, down from an earlier estimate of 85 million.

The USDA expects U.S. wheat exporters to ship out 25 million more bushels this year.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 26 cents at US$66.36 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.82 cents, down from 76.99 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3017.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jul 18 517.00s +0.30 +0.06%

Canola Nov 18 511.00s +0.80 +0.16%

Canola Jan 19 517.50s +0.40 +0.08%

Canola Mar 19 521.40s +0.30 +0.06%

Canola May 19 523.70s +0.30 +0.06%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 18 954-0s +0-2 +0.03%

Soybeans Aug 18 959-4s +0-4 +0.05%

Soybeans Sep 18 965-2s +0-4 +0.05%

Soybeans Nov 18 974-4s +0-6 +0.08%

Soybeans Jan 19 982-2s +1-2 +0.13%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 18 353.5s +2.3 +0.65%

Soybean Meal Aug 18 355.2s +2.4 +0.68%

Soybean Meal Sep 18 356.8s +2.6 +0.73%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 18 30.05s -0.53 -1.73%

Soybean Oil Aug 18 30.19s -0.51 -1.66%

Soybean Oil Sep 18 30.35s -0.49 -1.59%

 

Corn Jul 18 377-4s +10-2 +2.79%

Corn Sep 18 386-6s +10-4 +2.79%

Corn Dec 18 398-2s +10-0 +2.58%

Corn Mar 19 407-4s +9-6 +2.45%

Corn May 19 413-4s +9-4 +2.35%

 

Oats Jul 18 242-2s -0-2 -0.10%

Oats Sep 18 246-0s +0-2 +0.10%

Oats Dec 18 251-2s +3-4 +1.41%

Oats Mar 19 254-0s +3-4 +1.40%

Oats May 19 256-4s +3-4 +1.38%

 

Wheat Jul 18 534-4s +20-0 +3.89%

Wheat Sep 18 550-0s +19-2 +3.63%

Wheat Dec 18 572-2s +18-6 +3.39%

Wheat Mar 19 590-6s +18-4 +3.23%

Wheat May 19 601-2s +18-2 +3.13%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 18 592-4s +2-6 +0.47%

Spring Wheat Sep 18 604-4s +3-0 +0.50%

Spring Wheat Dec 18 618-0s +3-4 +0.57%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 632-4s +3-0 +0.48%

Spring Wheat May 19 641-0s +4-0 +0.63%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 553-4s +18-6 +3.51%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 568-0s +18-0 +3.27%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 590-4s +17-2 +3.01%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 605-4s +16-6 +2.85%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 614-6s +17-2 +2.89%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 18 108.525s -0.125 -0.12%

Live Cattle Aug 18 104.300s +0.125 +0.12%

Live Cattle Oct 18 107.350s +0.350 +0.33%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 18 145.800s -0.150 -0.10%

Feeder Cattle Sep 18 146.825s -0.425 -0.29%

Feeder Cattle Oct 18 146.950s -0.625 -0.42%

 

Lean Hogs Jun 18 80.525s +0.375 +0.47%

Lean Hogs Jul 18 81.450s +2.050 +2.58%

Lean Hogs Aug 18 77.525s +1.975 +2.61%

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