Falling soybeans and fund selling overwhelmed the impact of a bullish Statistics Canada seeding report Wednesday, causing canola futures to closed down a little from the previous session.
Reuters reported that soybeans dipped on expectations that Brazil might be closer to fixing its port congestion problems. Still, Bloomberg reports that there were 214 ships waiting to load at the port of Santos — 12.2 million tonnes of soybeans. That is down from 221 ships the previous week.
I think a big part of the day’s trade action in canola was that most people believe that with snow still on the ground and little hope for a big seeding push until at least mid May the numbers in the StatsCan report are simply out of date.
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The survey was done March 25 to April 3.
Also, Prairie farmers almost inevitably wind up seeding more canola and less wheat than they tell StatsCan in the March seeding intentions survey.
So the StatsCan canola number of 19.133 million acres is unlikely. StatsCan itself admits that the numbers could change a lot with changing environmental conditions.
The details of the Statistics Canada survey are already posted in the daily news section of Producer.com so I won’t repeat them here.
The large Canadian wheat seeding number at first pressured Minneapolis wheat futures, but the contract closed the day up a little.
I have been scratching my head a bit over why wheat has not been better supported by the freeze damage to the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop, but I saw a tweet this afternoon that sober me. It said “Biggest risk to the HRW market is not if we don’t have a crop – that is priced in – it’s if we DO have a crop.”
We’ll get a better understanding of what’s happening with the hard red winter wheat crop from the annual wheat quality tour April 29 to May 2.
A Reuters story from China today lays out a bearish outlook for that country’s soybean demand: “Poultry sales have dropped by 80 percent in eastern China and by about 30 percent in other parts of the country, analysts and industry officials say. Fewer birds to feed means less demand for soybeans and corn.”
German oilseed analyst Oil World said Ukraine will likely produce larger soybean and rapeseed crops, pushing production to 13.4 million to 14.4 million tonnes in 2013-14, up from 12.71 million last year when dry weather hurt yields.
Rapeseed output may be as large as two million tonnes, up from 1.3 million last year. All of its rapeseed exports go to the European Union.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2013 637.60 -2.00 -0.31%
Canola Jul 2013 619.70 -3.20 -0.51%
Canola Nov 2013 551.70 -2.60 -0.47%
Canola Jan 2014 552.40 -2.60 -0.47%
Canola Mar 2014 546.40 -3.10 -0.56%
Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2013 303.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2013 303.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 296.90 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2013 1404 -15.75 -1.11%
Soybeans Jul 2013 1345.25 -13.25 -0.98%
Soybeans Aug 2013 1285.5 -13.25 -1.02%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1226 -10.5 -0.85%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1193.75 -2.5 -0.21%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1201.75 -2.25 -0.19%
Soybean Meal May 2013 405.9 -5.8 -1.41%
Soybean Meal Jul 2013 390.6 -7.3 -1.83%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 365.4 -7 -1.88%
Soybean Oil May 2013 49.18 +0.61 +1.26%
Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.9 +0.49 +1.01%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.67 +0.4 +0.83%
Corn May 2013 639.5 +1 +0.16%
Corn Jul 2013 618.25 +4.25 +0.69%
Corn Sep 2013 546.75 +4.25 +0.78%
Corn Dec 2013 528 +5.25 +1.00%
Corn Mar 2014 539 +5.5 +1.03%
Oats May 2013 390.25 -6.75 -1.70%
Oats Jul 2013 384.25 -6 -1.54%
Oats Sep 2013 366.75 +0.25 +0.07%
Oats Dec 2013 359.25 -4.25 -1.17%
Oats Mar 2014 366.5 -1.5 -0.41%
Chicago soft red winter
Wheat May 2013 691.75 -5.75 -0.82%
Wheat Jul 2013 692 -3.5 -0.50%
Wheat Sep 2013 699.75 -3.25 -0.46%
Wheat Dec 2013 713.5 -3.5 -0.49%
Wheat Mar 2014 726.75 -3 -0.41%
Minneapolis hard red spring
Spring Wheat May 2013 817.75 +2.5 +0.31%
Spring Wheat Jul 2013 801.5 +0.5 +0.06%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 793.5 unch 0.00%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 800.5 +1 +0.13%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 812.75 +1.25 +0.15%
Kansas City hard red winter
KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 739 +1.75 +0.24%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 740 +1.5 +0.20%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 751 +1 +0.13%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 766.5 unch 0.00%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 777.75 -0.75 -0.10%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $2.25 at $91.43 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.37 cents US, down from 97.48 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0270 Cdn.
Weak quarterly reports from Proctor and Gamble and AT&T pressured American stock markets, but stronger oil futures and a surge in gold mining shares lifted the TSX to its best gain one day gain in more than eight months.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 179.49 points, or 1.48 percent, at 12,270.43.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 43.16 points or 0.29 percent, to end at 14,676.30.
The S&P 500edged up 0.01 of a point or 0 percent to finish at 1,578.79.
The Nasdaq Composite drifted up 0.32 of a point or 0.01 percent to close at 3,269.65.
