Harvest pressure, market jitters weigh down canola

D’Arce McMillan

Markets editor

Twitter @darcemcmillan

Harvest progress, good North American weather and expectations of a huge U.S. crop continued to weigh down crop prices, with canola dropping $3.80 a tonne to $396.30.

Anecdotal reports from the early harvested crops in the heart of the U.S. Midwest are much better than expected. Even in Western Canada there are reports that canola is yielding better than expected in some zones.

Saskatchewan Agriculture today said that as of Sept. 22, 43 percent of the crop had been combined and another 37 percent is swathed or ready to straight-cut.  The five-year average (2009-13) for this time of year is 58 per cent combined and 25 per cent swathed or ready to straight-cut.

Last year at this time, 71 percent was combined.

The report had this to say about yields:

“While overall yields are reported to be about average, they vary from region to region depending on field moisture and disease received throughout the year. Average hard red spring wheat yields are reported as 39 bushels per acre, durum 37 bushels per acre, barley 58 bushels per acre, canola 32 bushels per acre and field peas 32 bushels per acre.”

The strong U.S. dollar, at a four-year high against a basket of world currencies, weighed on crop prices.

Indeed, almost all equity and commodity markets were jittery today on the dollar strength, mixed economic reports and worries that stock markets might be due for a correction after a sustained rise this year.

Canola fell almost one percent, slipping back below $400 per tonne, even as soy oil was unchanged and palm oil rose on slower monthly production and good exports so far this month.

Planting of another expected record soybean crop in Brazil has begun. Planting in Argentina is a few weeks away.

The USDA released weekly export sales information.

It reported sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 2.565 million tonnes, at the high end of trade expectations.

U.S. wheat sales were 396,200 tonnes, toward the low end of trade expectations.

Weekly corn sales were 836,400 tonnes within the range of analyst expectations.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Nov 2014         396.30         -3.80         -0.95%

Canola Jan 2015         403.40         -3.70         -0.91%

Canola Mar 2015         410.70         -3.60         -0.87%

Canola May 2015         417.80         -3.50         -0.83%

Canola Jul 2015         424.30         -3.20         -0.75%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2014         189.00         +2.00         +1.07%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014         194.00         +3.00         +1.57%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015         202.00         +2.00         +1.00%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2014         303.20         unch         0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014         309.70         unch         0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015         310.70         unch         0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2014         123.50         unch         0.00%

Barley Dec 2014         125.50         unch         0.00%

Barley Mar 2015         126.50         unch         0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2014         922.75         -14         -1.49%

Soybeans Jan 2015         931.5         -13.75         -1.45%

Soybeans Mar 2015         939.5         -13         -1.36%

Soybeans May 2015         947.75         -12.25         -1.28%

Soybeans Jul 2015         953.75         -12         -1.24%

Soybeans Aug 2015         956.75         -11.25         -1.16%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 2014         312.4         -4         -1.26%

Soybean Meal Dec 2014         303.9         -4.1         -1.33%

Soybean Meal Jan 2015         301.8         -4.4         -1.44%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 2014         32.62         unch         0.00%

Soybean Oil Dec 2014         32.7         -0.02         -0.06%

Soybean Oil Jan 2015         32.98         -0.01         -0.03%

 

Corn Dec 2014         326         -3.5         -1.06%

Corn Mar 2015         339         -3.25         -0.95%

Corn May 2015         347.5         -3.25         -0.93%

Corn Jul 2015         354.75         -3.25         -0.91%

Corn Sep 2015         362.25         -3.25         -0.89%

 

Oats Dec 2014         331.25         -9.25         -2.72%

Oats Mar 2015         317.25         -7.75         -2.38%

Oats May 2015         311.75         -7.5         -2.35%

Oats Jul 2015         309.5         -4.5         -1.43%

Oats Sep 2015         313.75         -4.25         -1.34%

 

Wheat Dec 2014         474         -6.25         -1.30%

Wheat Mar 2015         487.75         -4.5         -0.91%

Wheat May 2015         497         -4         -0.80%

Wheat Jul 2015         503.5         -4.5         -0.89%

Wheat Sep 2015         515         -4.75         -0.91%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2014         536.25         -1.75         -0.33%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015         551.75         -0.5         -0.09%

Spring Wheat May 2015         562.5         +0.25         +0.04%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015         573.5         +0.25         +0.04%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015         584.75         +0.25         +0.04%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014         564.25         unch         0.00%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015         568         +0.5         +0.09%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015         570.5         +1.25         +0.22%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015         563.25         +1.25         +0.22%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 575.25         +2         +0.35%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 27 cents at $92.53 US per barrel.

 

The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.04 cents US, down from 90.17 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1106 Cdn.

In early unofficial tallies —

The TSX composite fell 226.96 points of 1.5 percent to 14,893.57.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 257.87 points, or 1.5 percent, to 16,952.19, the S&P 500 lost 31.93 points, or 1.6 percent, to 1,966.37 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 88.47 points, or 1.94 percent, to 4,466.75.

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