Crop futures drift lower as USDA raises wheat, soy year end stocks

The USDA increased its forecast for U.S. year end stocks of soybeans and wheat due to disappointing pace of exports so far this crop year.

Domestic corn ending stocks for 2017-18 were cut to 2.437 billion bu. from 2.487 billion bu.

That was a little bullish for corn because analysts had expected corn ending stocks of 2.478 billion bu.

Market reaction was minimal. January soybean were down about 0.7 percent.

January canola fell about 0.5 percent or $2.40 to $500.10 per tonne, just above the psychologically important $500 level.

The canola contract has fallen close to $20 a tonne since mid November.

The forecast for welcome rain in Argentina this weekend further weighed on oilseeds. Central Brazil also has been getting rain.

USDA pegged soybean 2017-18 domestic ending stocks at 445 million bushels, up 20 million bu. from its November outlook. It lowered its export forecast for the oilseed by 25 million bu. and raised seed usage by five million bushels.

USDA lowered its 2017-18 domestic wheat export outlook by 25 million bu. to 975 million bu.

On the global front, the USDA raised its estimate of Canada’s wheat crop by three million tonnes to 30 million, reflecting last week’s increase in the Statistics Canada crop report.

USDA did not lower its forecast of Australia’s wheat production, keeping it at 21.5 million tonnes..

It also kept its forecasts for Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan wheat steady.

Global year end wheat stocks rose to 268.42 million, up 900,000 tonnes from last month.

In soybeans, USDA left its forecast for Brazil’s crop steady at 108 million tonnes. Some Brazilian analysts are raising their forecast to more than 110 million and Brazil’s deputy agriculture minister suggested this week it could match last year’s 114 million tonnes.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The U.S. Federal Reserve, is widely expected on Wednesday to raise its benchmark rate to between 1.25 and 1.50 percent.

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 85 cents at US$57.14 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.70 cents, down from 77.78 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2870.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 10.52 points, or 0.07 percent, at 16,114.03.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 118.77 points, or 0.49 percent, higher at 24,504.8, the S&P 500 gained 4.12 points, or 0.15 percent, to 2,664.11 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 12.76 points, or 0.19 percent, to 6,862.32.

 

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jan 18   500.10s   -2.40   -0.48%

Canola Mar 18 507.90s   -2.00   -0.39%

Canola May 18   514.80s   -2.00   -0.39%

Canola Jul 18   518.60s   -1.70   -0.33%

Canola Nov 18   502.60s   -0.70   -0.14%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 18   975-6s   -6-6   -0.69%

Soybeans Mar 18   987-2s   -6-6   -0.68%

Soybeans May 18   998-2s   -7-0   -0.70%

Soybeans Jul 18   1007-6s   -6-6   -0.67%

Soybeans Aug 18   1009-4s   -6-2   -0.62%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 17   322.9s   -3.1   -0.95%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   324.7s   -3.0   -0.92%

Soybean Meal Mar 18   328.9s   -2.9   -0.87%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 17   33.36s   -0.04   -0.12%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   33.45s   -0.01   -0.03%

Soybean Oil Mar 18   33.60s   -0.01   -0.03%

 

Corn Dec 17   335-6s   -0-6   -0.22%

Corn Mar 18   347-6s   -1-2   -0.36%

Corn May 18   356-0s   -1-2   -0.35%

Corn Jul 18   364-4s   -1-2   -0.34%

Corn Sep 18   371-6s   -1-2   -0.34%

 

Oats Dec 17   227-2s   -0-2   -0.11%

Oats Mar 18   243-4s   -0-2   -0.10%

Oats May 18   250-2s   unch   unch

Oats Jul 18   258-2s   +0-6   +0.29%

Oats Sep 18   260-2s   +0-6   +0.29%

 

Wheat Dec 17 387-2s   -0-4   -0.13%

Wheat Mar 18   410-6s   -2-6   -0.67%

Wheat May 18   424-0s   -3-2   -0.76%

Wheat Jul 18   437-2s   -4-2   -0.96%

Wheat Sep 18   450-6s   -5-2   -1.15%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   596-6s   unch   unch

Spring Wheat Mar 18   605-4s   -3-2   -0.53%

Spring Wheat May 18   614-0s   -3-2   -0.53%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   618-6s   -3-0   -0.48%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   617-0s   -2-0   -0.32%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   394-0s   -1-2   -0.32%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   411-2s   -1-4   -0.36%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   424-4s   -1-4   -0.35%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   440-6s   -1-6   -0.40%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   455-6s   -2-2   -0.49%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 17   116.150s   +0.975   +0.85%

Live Cattle Feb 18   119.150s   +1.425   +1.21%

Live Cattle Apr 18   120.975s   +1.350   +1.13%

 

Feeder Cattle Jan 18   147.100s   +1.650   +1.13%

Feeder Cattle Mar 18   145.300s   +1.975   +1.38%

Feeder Cattle Apr 18   145.325s   +1.875   +1.31%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 17  63.750s   +0.150   +0.24%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   66.525s   -0.500   -0.75%

Lean Hogs Apr 18   71.175s   -0.650   -0.90%

 

 

 

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