WINNIPEG – ICE Futures canola contracts traded either side steady on Wednesday, as there was little to move prices either way.
Such will remain the case unless there is a breakthrough in the Canada/China dispute or a final deal in United States/China trade talks. Also, a major weather event could affect prices.
Canadian farmers arrived in Ottawa this week and a delegation spoke with the House of Commons Agriculture Committee. The farmers demanded Canada take strong action against China over its ban of canola imports.
Farmers also said China is only the latest country to target Canadian grains and oilseeds. Others include India with pulses, Italy with durum, Vietnam on wheat and Saudi Arabia on cereals.
The United States Department of Agriculture said in its Oils Crops Outlook on Tuesday, that Canada’s canola exports were at 10.6 million tonnes for the current crop year, and down one million tonnes from the March estimate. Ironically, that is 800,000 tonnes more than estimated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
There’s very little wiggle room for Canadian canola on the world market, according to the report. An abundance of soybeans and a slowing global demand for that crop has made increasing canola exports more difficult.
The Canadian dollar was up by midafternoon on Wednesday, at 75.09 U.S. cents.
There were 17,533 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 22,724 contracts changed hands.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were up on Wednesday.
The effects of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), didn’t last long on the markets on Tuesday, according to FarmLead, which called the report “dull.” Although the WASDE report had some bearish effect, after a few hours the markets focussed back on the weather and flooding.
That said, Wednesday has not been a good day in several U.S. states. About 30 centimetres of snow was expected for South Dakota, and rain mixed with snow for Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas. Major amounts of precipitation will add to the flood woes throughout the U.S. Midwest and Northern Plains.
Those wet conditions could force U.S. farmers to change their planting intentions this year from corn to soybeans.
The USDA has estimated Brazil’s soybean production at 117 million tonnes for this crop year, and predicted the next crop could top 124 million tonnes. Argentina’s soybean crop this crop year was pegged at 55 million tonnes.
There was a private sale of 180,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations reported to the USDA today.
The USDA will release its latest export report on April 11.
CORN futures were stronger on Wednesday.
The USDA estimated Brazil’s 2018-19 corn production at 96 million tonnes, but that could reach 100 million tonnes. The country’s safrina corn crop is expected to be 74 million tonnes.
In U.S./China trade talks; there was speculation that China could ease its tariffs on U.S. ethanol products. Negotiations have been continuing this week by teleconference.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Wednesday, with gains in Minneapolis and losses in Kansas City and Chicago.
Winter wheat contracts were down on technical selling and spring wheat was up due to concerns about planting delays this year, according to a report.
Ukraine’s wheat exports are said to have reached 18.48 million tonnes this crop year. France’s soft wheat exports, outside of the European Union, were approximately 13.08 million tonnes.
While the USDA estimated global wheat ending stocks to be 275.6 million tonnes, the agency noted that China hold 51 per cent of it.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 63 cents at US$64.61 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.04 cents, down from 75.10 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3326.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola May 19 456.00s +0.70 +0.15%
Canola Jul 19 463.70s +0.60 +0.13%
Canola Nov 19 475.50s -0.20 -0.04%
Canola Jan 20 481.70s -0.30 -0.06%
Canola Mar 20 486.40s -0.30 -0.06%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Soybean May 19 902-0s +3-2 +0.36%
Soybean Jul 19 915-2s +3-4 +0.38%
Soybean Aug 19 921-0s +3-4 +0.38%
Soybean Sep 19 925-2s +3-0 +0.33%
Soybean Nov 19 934-4s +2-6 +0.30%
Soybean Meal May 19 310.1s +1.0 +0.32%
Soybean Meal Jul 19 313.8s +1.0 +0.32%
Soybean Meal Aug 19 315.4s +1.0 +0.32%
Soybean Oil May 19 29.07s +0.03 +0.10%
Soybean Oil Jul 19 29.38s +0.03 +0.10%
Soybean Oil Aug 19 29.53s +0.03 +0.10%
Corn May 19 361-6s +1-6 +0.49%
Corn Jul 19 370-6s +2-2 +0.61%
Corn Sep 19 379-0s +1-6 +0.46%
Corn Dec 19 390-6s +1-4 +0.39%
Corn Mar 20 404-4s +1-0 +0.25%
Oats May 19 279-0s -2-2 -0.80%
Oats Jul 19 272-6s -1-0 -0.37%
Oats Sep 19 264-4s -2-0 -0.75%
Oats Dec 19 258-6s -0-6 -0.29%
Oats Mar 20 253-4s -0-6 -0.29%
Wheat May 19 458-0s -1-4 -0.33%
Wheat Jul 19 461-4s -2-4 -0.54%
Wheat Sep 19 470-4s -2-4 -0.53%
Wheat Dec 19 487-0s -2-2 -0.46%
Wheat Mar 20 501-2s -2-0 -0.40%
Spring Wheat May 19 530-2s +7-2 +1.39%
Spring Wheat Jul 19 537-0s +5-6 +1.08%
Spring Wheat Sep 19 545-6s +5-0 +0.92%
Spring Wheat Dec 19 560-4s +4-6 +0.85%
Spring Wheat Mar 20 575-4s +5-0 +0.88%
Hard Red Wheat May 19 426-2s -1-2 -0.29%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 432-6s -2-2 -0.52%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 444-2s -2-2 -0.50%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 467-6s -1-6 -0.37%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 487-2s -1-4 -0.31%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Apr 19 125.875s -0.025 -0.02%
Live Cattle Jun 19 119.950s -0.400 -0.33%
Live Cattle Aug 19 117.000s -0.650 -0.55%
Feeder Cattle Apr 19 145.175s -0.975 -0.67%
Feeder Cattle May 19 149.225s -0.950 -0.63%
Feeder Cattle Aug 19 157.025s -0.575 -0.36%
Lean Hogs Apr 19 78.900s +0.375 +0.48%
Lean Hogs May 19 86.975s +0.525 +0.61%
Lean Hogs Jun 19 96.450s +1.300 +1.37%