Canola stronger on lower StatsCan estimate

ICE Futures canola contracts were stronger in the most active months on Thursday, although activity was choppy as a number of conflicting influences pulled on the market.

A downward revision to Statistics Canada’s canola production estimate provided underlying support. The government agency pegged the 2018-19 crop at 20.3 million tonnes, which was at the lower end of trade estimates and one million tonnes below the previous year’s production.

Weakness in the Canadian dollar was also supportive for canola, as the declining currency underpinned crush margins.

However, losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil tempered the upside amid renewed concerns over trade relations between the United States and China.

The general technical outlook also remained pointed lower for canola, which made any gains a selling opportunity from a chart standpoint.

About 34,120 canola contracts traded, which compares with Wednesday when 27,704 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 25,700 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Thursday.

The arrest of a senior executive with China’s Huawei Technologies Company took all of the trade optimism out of the soybean market that had built up after China and the United States agreed to a tentative truce over the weekend.

Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou, a top executive with Chinese technology company Huawei and daughter of the company’s founder, at the request of the U.S. The arrest was linked to U.S. sanctions against Iran and is seen as threatening the tentative trade truce between the U.S. and China.

Large crop projections out of South America also weighed on values.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its monthly supply/demand estimates on Dec. 11, and pre-report positioning was another feature.

CORN futures were also pressured by the trade worries. However, the losses were tempered by solid export demand.

The USDA announced flash sales of 198,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico this morning.

The weekly export report was delayed until Friday.

WHEAT futures were lower on Thursday. While U.S. wheat is thought to be looking more competitively priced on the world market, the country continues to miss out on export business.

Canada’s 2018 wheat crop was pegged at 31.8 million tonnes by Statistics Canada. That was in line with trade estimates, but well above the 30.0 million tonne crop grown the previous year.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.18 cents at US$51.71 from yesterday.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.67 cents, down from 22 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3392

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Name / Contract Last Change % Change

Canola Jan 19 486.10s +1.40 +0.29%

Canola Mar 19 493.30s +1.30 +0.26%

Canola May 19 501.00s +1.50 +0.30%

Canola Jul 19 506.40s +0.40 +0.08%

Canola Nov 19 497.40s -0.60 -0.12%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 19 909-4s -4-0 -0.44%

Soybeans Mar 19 922-0s -3-4 -0.38%

Soybeans May 19 934-4s -3-6 -0.40%

Soybeans Jul 19 946-2s -4-0 -0.42%

Soybeans Aug 19 950-2s -4-0 -0.42%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 18 310.0s -1.9 -0.61%

Soybean Meal Jan 19 312.2s -1.7 -0.54%

Soybean Meal Mar 19 315.5s -1.6 -0.50%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 18 28.47s -0.10 -0.35%

Soybean Oil Jan 19 28.71s -0.13 -0.45%

Soybean Oil Mar 19 28.95s -0.10 -0.34%

 

Corn Dec 18 372-0s -2-2 -0.60%

Corn Mar 19 382-6s -1-4 -0.39%

Corn May 19 390-0s -1-2 -0.32%

Corn Jul 19 396-2s -1-2 -0.31%

Corn Sep 19 396-6s -1-4 -0.38%

 

Oats Dec 18 284-0s +3-0 +1.07%

Oats Mar 19 291-0s +3-2 +1.13%

Oats May 19 292-4s +3-2 +1.12%

Oats Jul 19 286-0s +3-2 +1.15%

Oats Sep 19 275-0s +5-0 +1.85%

 

Wheat Dec 18 505-2s -9-2 -1.80%

Wheat Mar 19 515-4s -2-4 -0.48%

Wheat May 19 521-0s -2-2 -0.43%

Wheat Jul 19 525-4s -2-2 -0.43%

Wheat Sep 19 534-0s -2-0 -0.37%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18 578-0s -6-2 -1.07%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 569-2s -6-2 -1.09%

Spring Wheat May 19 574-2s -5-2 -0.91%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 580-6s -4-2 -0.73%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 588-2s -3-4 -0.59%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 468-6s -7-6 -1.63%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 495-4s -2-4 -0.50%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 507-4s -2-2 -0.44%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 517-2s -2-2 -0.43%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 530-2s -2-0 -0.38%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 18 117.950s -0.350 -0.30%

Live Cattle Feb 19 121.800s -0.575 -0.47%

Live Cattle Apr 19 123.475s -0.400 -0.32%

 

Feeder Cattle Jan 19 144.200s -1.275 -0.88%

Feeder Cattle Mar 19 141.950s -1.100 -0.77%

Feeder Cattle Apr 19 142.525s -1.350 -0.94%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 18 54.525s -1.325 -2.37%

Lean Hogs Feb 19 66.900s -0.850 -1.25%

Lean Hogs Apr 19 71.275s -0.850 -1.18%

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By Phil Franz-Warkentin Commodity News Service Canada's recent articles

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